• on a comment on Obama's re-elect a solid 39% over 3 years ago

    Could lose one House seat there, but I guess Walz seems safer now. For the Gov race, if it were not for the Republican running, would not likely go Dem. But yea, good point. What an outlier state; where the Dems are taking over-- can't see how this helps Pawlenty.

    Here in Virginia, we have Boucher now on the table for losing now. Could see 4 seats go Republican. I think Moran is going to be in the low 50's.

  • on a comment on Senate Outlook a week out over 3 years ago

    Have you read Woodword's 'Obama's War'?  Its not dumbness; its his inability to get attract advisors that are any different than the status quo. Its tragic, really. He's stuck, he knows he's stuck, he ask why he's stuck... and no one answers... so he goes with what they tell him. 

    At one point, Obama says "so does anyone here think we should get out of Afghanistan" and no one answers yes.  His reply: "OK then, that is off the table." I mean, WTF, he can't even figure out that if he has no one there that is telling him about that option, he doesn't even have the capacity to realize that he's living inside the box and needs to get a different opinion?

    Quite maddening at first, but by the end, he's become a tragic figure of his own inability-- not of imagination, but of recruitment beyond the CW ladder of establishment group-think. He's DOA right there.

  • on a comment on The UK landscape over 3 years ago

    Voters would RANK a number of candidates
    from a list in order of preference. If a candidate wins more than half of
    the ‘1st preference’ votes, a winner is declared. If not, the least
    popular candidates are progressively eliminated from the contest,
    and their supporters’ 2nd and subsequent preferences counted and
    shared accordingly among the remaining candidates in successive
    rounds of voting. This process continues until an outright winner is
    declared.  Electors won’t have to rank all candidates if they don’t
    want to and the winner won’t necessarily get more than 50% of all
    votes cast.

  • on a comment on Senate Outlook a week out over 3 years ago

    VA too, in '12. It's quite the landscape.

    CO, NV, IL, they are all three quite close and along with WV are the 4 seats classified as toss-ups on Pollster.

  • on a comment on Senate Outlook a week out over 3 years ago

    Nelson is smart enough to know that would be a death cert in a GOP primary. Lieberman is better odds.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Sure, I wondered aloud in June. But by October, go look it up, I predicted right where he landed-- missed one state iirc, but got the % right; same with right on House and Senate. This is October.

    I was at 50 and 5 for about a year, but these numbers make me think 65 and 9. We'll see if it changes.

    I agree, that just having a level of honesty here would help a lot. Its a shame their egos are so big that they can't admit it ahead of the election.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Even then, we are looking at redistricting in 2012. Should be a great year for primaries on both sides.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    I was like that too once, in 2002, and even though I could see the late shift happening, I was able to allow myself to say what I saw, and change the races. So I was terribly wrong. I actually stopped blogging and thought about quiting all together. My feeling is that if I don't feel like I can say what I really see, truthfully, why bother.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Am just going off of #2 by the Gallup poll that was done. The point being that it found 21% of those who 'like' the Tea Party, or say 'yea' or whatever to it (being its so decentralized) are conservative dems and independents that traditionally, like in 2008, vote Democratic.

    You may not like it, but those are the poll findings.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Yea, debt and deficit politics. He'll follow the Austerity path.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    We've had that firm up for a few years. I've always worked as a political consultant, for the past 7 years, no difference. I've been focusing on a tech buildout there that WS used for Brazil.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Ben Nelson will get his due in '12, and yea, the Cornhusker Kickback was a killer.

    Part of Obama's win was due to Independent moderates and actual Republicans, which he's now lost. He's probably not getting them back either. So, can he up the base of youth and african-americans even more for 12? That's really doubtful too. His re-elect is stuck right now at 39 percent. 

    I'm wondering if Steny Hoyer is going to have the votes there, given a lot of Blue Dogs are going to be defeated. If 60-70 D's are ousted, I am begining to doubt that the House turns to him.

     

     

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Ad revenue?  I couldn't care at all about it, how many times must I say that I distribute it and don't make money here and never have!

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    that's funny, cause Markos and I have shared in some very big success of late together with SBnation.

    I'm not sure why you have such a visceral personal reaction toward a post that is just pointing at my opinion of why this is about to happen.

    Nothings changed, I always tell the truth, and have always put that ahead of being on a team or any other partisan nonsense.

    I've also never really cared about having a big blog or many readers. Having tuned this on and off multiple times over the years, and given the ad revenue to others. Its a side gig for spouting off on the state of things political.

    I'm much more interested in working internationally than with Democrats any more. Or with renegades or 3rd party efforts going forward.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Thing is, none of the individual polling is reflecting the generic landslide. So, I would counter that a non-gap has been built in already, assuming it will happen. Here's an article to explain the dis-connect. It's probably not even close.

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