I think we lose 48 in the house and 7 in the senate. And since we brought up 2012 I say Obama wins re-election pretty handily.
Of course since so many of us prefer losing to winning I'm sure plenty won't like it.
You are right and wrong on how Dems should campaign. We lost the battle for the public on healthcare when we chose not to fight it effectively. It is too late now. People love the bill in parts, but will never view it as a positive in whole. The same is true of the stimulus and TARP. We lost the communications battle on these issues a long time ago and re-fighting it now will not help us. What we need to have learned moving forward from this is that educational campaigns are important as is conducting business in the light of day.
"and by all accounts there wallets will be even lighter in 2012"
Whose accounts are these exactly? Because, ignoring the fact that predicting the economy that far out is not what one would call an exact science, the evidence is that the economy is improving, albeit slowly.
And if 2004 taught us anything it is that the American public votes for personality- John Kerry was unlikeable, smug, and disconnected from the American public. That is not how Obama is viewed, nor is it likely to ever be how he is viewed. Again, I would suggest that the fact that his policies are not well liked is in fact a problem of communication- that being that we do not effectively fight back against the lies the far right tells.
However, since you are so sure that Obama will not win a second term would you care to make a wager? If so I will be happy to discuss the terms. However, you should know that I won a significant number of wagers regarding both the Democratic primary in 2008 and the general election as well.
Posting something three times does not make it true. Here is some information you might want to consider-
Obama hasn't lost the independents who supported him. The makeup of people who consider themselves independents has changed. The Tea Party movement is made up of a large number of people who now consider themselves independents who perviously considered themselves Republicans. This has changed the dynamic and certainly skewed the polling data. What is worse than that is as usual the media chooses not report this aspect of the story because it does not play into the narrative that Obama is losing people.
Also, here is another reality check for you- Obama himself is still incredibly popular with people- 59% find him to have the personality and leadership qualities necessary in a President. The problem is that we are losing the battle on policy and issues- this is not because Obama or the Democrats are wrong, rather it is because we are losing the battle of communication.
This is because, not surprisingly, it is easier to sell fear, blame, and hate than it is to sell solutions. That being said, the GOP has nobody they can nominate who will be able to out campaign or out fundraise Obama AND they do not have anybody who can match his charisma. I have no problem predicting right now that Obama wins re-election in 2012 albeit by a smaller margin in the electoral college.
But even so it would only allow deficit spending FOR the war. What it would actually allow a President Pawlenty to do is throw all of the fed budget into the war and shut down all of the programs that we need but they are against.
It is disturbing, you are right about that. However, I am not sure it is possible for someone with the position of Chief of Staff to recuse themselves from any decisions the Administration has to make. I think that would create a standard of purity (not a word I am using in the snarky sense here,) that would be impossible for any administration to actually uphold.
However, if he did break the law he should be removed...and I am beginning to wonder if he should be anyway. I liked the choice for COS when it was first made, but I feel less and less comfortable with it as time has gone on.
As an aside, phrases like "Centrist Authoritarian Personality Cult," can make it difficult to engage in productive conversation. I feel like one of the problems here, and it has been embodied in our past conversations, is that those who are not particularly enamored with Obama or the administration need to be able to acknowledge that there are real reasons for being supportive of the administration other than "YOU DRANK THE KOOL AID!!!111!!!..." And those of us who do feel that the administration is mostly on the right track have to be able to acknowledge that there are very real concerns and problems worth discussing with those who feel distrustful of the administration rather than just assuming it is a carry over from the primaries, or some other distaste that has nothing to do with actual policy.