That's what I mean...Kerry is confusing here. Kerry acknowledged in August that knowing everything we did now, he would have still gone to war (just would have done it differently). Yesterday, he said knowing everything we know now, he would NOT have gone to war.
He cannot win on foriegn policy until he can finally beat HIMSELF in hos own debate.
Gallup has been doing it the same way for years, and they have always been consistently called the top pollster, for some reson.
And I am still having a hard time accepting their methodology is wrong when other polls agree with them. Some do, some don't.
Haven't we all learned by now, there is only one poll that matters?
And...as I said...and you will likely agree, the pollsters that seem to be best suited for these elections are Zogby and Rasmussen for a couple of reasons:
They've got a proven track record for accuracy
They poll based on electoral votes, which is how the election is decided anyway.
I just find all the blind criticism of Gallup ludicrous. They've already defended it saying there is no evidence that the breakdown (that they're being criticised for) has ever been a factor, and then seemed to be backed up by a legitimate poll (Pew) who does break it down the "right way". Doesn't the Pew poll back up Gallup's defense?
You have GOT to be kidding...this is more spin than my washer is capable of.
Two weeks ago, they behead two Americans and Kerry uses it against Bush in a campaign commercial to show how bad things are in Iraq (which was a bad call to use such a recently tragic event in ANY campaign), and here another party negotiates their release and they are HELPING Bush?
That's like saying Jessie Jackson negotiated the Americans' release in Iraq in 98 to help Bush in the upcoming election? He would NEVER do it. He just happened to be the best guy at the right time to get a hostage freed.
The CBS thing probably. Now that CBS has flatly admitted the documents can't be authenticated, many people's perceptions are that the Dems were involved.
I honestly do not think Kerry had anything to do with it, but I wouldn't put anything past McCauliff or Lockhart. In any event, I believe that might have caused the bounce.
Still Zogby is a bit more reliable. If you want an accurate gauge, you really need to pick a pollster and stick to them. My exprience is that NORMALLY, each poll will shift about the right number of points as the others. They might not start off the same, but they shift the same.
In other words...if Gallup has Bush up by 13, and Zogby has Bush up by 6...then next week it might be 8 and 3. They shift the same.
The overall numbers should give you an indicator of where they stand, but don't pay too much attention to each individual pollster.
Kerry's best theme for foriegn policy debate is to try to avoid talking about it...he has taken so many positions on foriegn policy, he will literally contradict himself. He would stand a much better chance focusing on domestic policy.
I am a Bush supporter...I'll admit that much, but I am fair, in my opinion, when analyzing the candidate. While I do not approve of Kerry's domestic record in 90% of the votes he has cast, there are many people that do so he would do well to focus there.
In foriegn policy, he has confused his OWN base, by literally taking both sides of every foriegn policy issue.
While I am in agreement that this may be partisan in nature, you really need to distribute full credit around to all those who need to take blame. This is not a Republican-only tactic. The Democrats are guilty if the same or similar tactics to increase their voter counts.
Take Florida, for example, the state that everyone says Gore won, but that he really did not. How can I say that? Let's start with the 50,000 people who were double-registrants in Florida AND New York. Many of them cast votes in New York and absentee votes in Florida during the 2000 election. An alaysis of the 50,000 double-registrants show that 68% of them were registered Democrats, 12% Republican, 20% undeclared (Independents).
Now don't misunderstand...I am NOT implying that there wasn't some partisan maneuvering that in the weeks that followed by brother Jeb and Ms. Harris, but I am saying that the end result would have been the same had all these underhanded tactics been known at the time.
It's good that you bring them to light. The underhanded tricks by Democrats AND Republicans need to be brought forth, but don't post as though the Republicans are the only people guilty of deceptive voting practices.