Social Security by 2010 when baby boomers start to retire will dig in to the surplus and by 2025 will start digging to the trust funds until 2045. That is the actuarial forecast of Stephen Goss of Social Security Adiministration. This is because there will be increasingly decreasing ratio of workers vs. retirees (presently it is 3.3 to 1).
I think this is a pessimistic forecast because once the economy are finding labor shortage as the proportion of dependents/retirees will increase and productive citizens decrease, there will be a push to increase labor through immigration. Thus increasing labor force and payment of payroll taxes.
But I still think Bush was wrong in invading Iraq because I have thought that invasion was the most ineffective and costly way to remove Saddam or even spread freedom or fight terrorism. There were other ways.
And true enough, what Bush father and many others predicted came true and America is left holding the bag. ($300B and thousands died and maimed).
Monday, January 10, 2005
Rapid Response on Social Security, Ohio and Reform
While much media coverage continues the Social Security debate following too closely to President Bush's doom and gloom script, there were signs of appropriate skepticism as Bush's habit of crying wolf was politely noted. However, most Americans didn?t read that this administration has even turned the Social Security Administration into its propaganda arm, playing "the sky is falling" misinformation to unsuspecting retirees on hold. As nervous citizens risk being conned into giving up their social security for a chance at the roulette wheel of privatization, Alan Sloan valiantly tried to slap us back to reality:
"Bush talked about Social Security's being a $10.4 trillion problem... But the shortfall in Bush's Medicare drug program is $17 trillion. In other words, the problem that Bush himself created a year ago is two thirds again as large as Social Security's problem. What's more, the drug plan starts costing taxpayers big bucks just a year from now, in 2006. We'll borrow it, of course. Social Security, for all its flaws, will take in more than enough cash to pay for itself for a dozen years even if nothing changes. So which is a "crisis"? A $17 trillion problem that starts next year, or a $10.4 trillion problem that starts in 2018? *
Twelve Reasons Why Privatizing Social Security is a Bad Idea
Greg Anrig Jr., Bernard Wasow, The Century Foundation, 12/14/04
Addressing Social Security's potential long-term financing challenges by taking the dramatic step of diverting its payroll taxes to create new personal accounts will have drastic consequences for federal finances, future retirees, and those who rely on the system the most. Learn more about twelve major reasons why less costly and less painful reforms should be considered instead.
Reason #1: Today's insurance to protect workers and their families against death and disability would be threatened.
Reason #2: Creating private accounts would make Social Security's financing problem worse, not better.
Reason #3: Creating private accounts could dampen economic growth, which would further weaken Social Security's future finances.
Reason #4: Privatization has been a disappointment elsewhere.
Reason #5: The odds are against individuals investing successfully.
Reason #6: What you get will depend on whether you retire when the market is up or down.
Reason #7: Wall Street would reap windfalls from your taxes.
Reason #8: Private accounts would require a new government bureaucracy.
Reason #9: Young people would be worse off.
Reason # 10: Women stand to lose the most.
Reason #11: African Americans and Latin Americans also would become more vulnerable under privatization.
Reason #12: Retirees will not be protected against inflation.
If Kerry retained the Gore Catholic Voters, he would have won!
2.5 M more Catholics voted for Bush
2.5M more Catholics voted for Bush and that is about the margin of difference between Bush and Kerry. Gore won the Catholic vote in 2000.
How can we win back the Catholic voter? Do Dems have anything similar to this? Director of Catholic Outreach?
Actually when I started hearing the priest during sermons and end of the masses telling us to vote pro-life, I then felt Kerry would lose.
And to think the Pope was vehemently anti-Bush!
---Original Message Follows----
From: "Martin Gillespie, Director of Catholic Outreach, RNC" <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Subject: Thank You and Congratulations!
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2004 16:36:49 -0500 (EST)
With the post-election number-crunching completed, we as Catholics can be proud that the Catholic vote went to President Bush by a margin of 52%-47%! The President was the right candidate for Catholics, and the election results reflect that.
We now know that President Bush decidedly improved his standing among Catholic voters since his 2000 election, when he lost the Catholic vote to former Vice President Al Gore, 47%-50%. This eight-point net gain represents more than 2.5 million new Catholic votes for President Bush. Over thirty-two million Catholics voted in this election, and almost seventeen million of those Catholics voted for President Bush.
Other notable facts about the election include:
·Among Catholics who attend mass weekly, the President won 56%-43%;
·The first time since 1988 that a Republican presidential candidate has won the Catholic vote;
·This election marked the first time that a Catholic major party candidate for President has lost the Catholic vote;
·The President outperformed his national average with Catholics in key battleground states, winning the Catholic vote in critical states such as Ohio (55%- 44%) and Florida (57%-42%).
We will continue to make clear that the Republican Party is a natural choice for Catholics. In this respect, please expect to hear from us in the months ahead with our continued plans to build Catholic support for the President and his initiatives.
Again, thank you for participating in this successful campaign. You made a difference!
With respect and appreciation,
Director of Catholic Outreach
Republican National Committee *
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