I feel sorry for you, because I've got to admit, most of the front page people on here might support their candidate, but they are not as purposefully misleading as Jerome is. It seems like every one of his posts is taking something out of context in order to slam Obama and has really brought this blog down.
I mean, look at some of the things he has Front Paged.
OMG!!!! I just went over to the breaking blue post and noticed that two officials from Wisconsin are complaining that Barack isn't giving free airtime to Hillary!!!!! And by some shocking coincidence, these two people are early supporters of Hillary Clinton!!!!! And by another shocking coincidence, this is not mentioned AT ALL by the person who posted this!!!! OMFG!!!!
Obama will win the exact same way he is winning the Democratic primaries/caucuses. He will bring out a lot fo first time voters and win over independants.
Fact is, the democratic party is pissed at the Republicans. I don't think there will be a single problem motivating the base to vote against him. Kerry was able to motivate the base in 2004, getting the second most votes in the history of the United States. Unfortunately, he lost the independants to Bush.
Obama has brought out tons of first time voters, specifically in colleges. I remember going into Iowa everybody was saying he couldn't win because it was Jan 3rd and all the students were not in class yet. Well, he still won with the help of a TON of young voters. Fact is, Obama inspires them while Clinton doesn't.
Not to mention the fact that Clinton doesn't have high approval numbers with independants. In all of the open primaries Barack beats her by like 20% among independants. Barack has a good shot at winning these people compared to Hilary.
Not to mention, if Hillary is the nominee, whe will be the biggest motivation for the Republican base to turn out, more than McCain ever could be. Barack doesn't get the hatred and I have a hard time seeing James Dobson emphatically saying McCain would be a great president. I can see him telling his flock that they need to vote against the antichrist Hillary.
So in closing, I think Barack can bring out more than enough new voters and winning independants to win the Kerry states along with Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Florida. I think it will be a landslide. Just look at whom the senators from red states are endorsing?? Who do they want at the top of thier ticket??
My guesses would be a lot higher. Barack and HRC both went to Ivy League Law schools. If 132 puts you in the top 2% (as per admission requirement for Mensa) I would guess they both would be in the 150's range (guessing that would eb about top 0.1%) Being as how Edwards was also one of the most succesfull trial lawyers, I would put him up there, too.
As for the Republicans, I think Romney would be the highest, followed by Guiliani and then McCain bringing up the rear.
The only change that you might consider is limiting the national polls to polls taken in the last 45 days or so. I think there will be enough polls so that if there is significant movement the early polls wont scew the results. Maybe a 3 month limit on state polls or something like that.