I returned to this excellent site after being disgusted with the ignorant we-wuz-wobbed whining at other Democratic websites. Whenever someone posts a thread or opinion on those sites that we lost legit and need to look forward, they are relentlessly assaulted by the tunnelvision conspiracy crew. MyDD is more than a cut above.
As you indicate, we lost by 3+ million votes. In scanning obscure counties in states with no electronic voting and no exit poll controversy, it's obvuious there was a consistent slight preference to Bush this year, in relation to 2000. Incumbency and 9/11.
Hispanics and Latinos have also been an important constituency for the Democrats in many parts of the country. But there has been a somewhat larger partisan shift away from the Democratic party among Hispanics than among the public at large.
During the late 1990s, Democrats outnumbered Republicans among Hispanics by a margin of more than two-to-one (41% to 19%). In the aftermath of 9/11, Democrats still lead, but by a smaller margin (36% to 22%).
Republican gains have been greatest among Protestant Hispanics - especially those who consider themselves evangelical Christians.
Among Catholic Hispanics, there has been little change in partisan identification.
The Northeast is the only region where the Democratic party has held its own. Hispanics and Latinos living in that region are just as Democratic today as before Sept. 11.
But in several key battleground states in other regions - notably Florida - Republicans have made gains. With its conservative Cuban-American population, the Sunshine State's Hispanic population is among the more politically diverse in the country, though Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 12 points during the late 1990s. Today, Republicans have a slight advantage over Democrats, 32% to 30%.
That state at its core is 2-4 points red. I projected it to dead even partisanship or 1 point Dem this year, based on the job loss and state economy. We had our opportunity to steal an election via the electoral college route and blew it, or had it taken. I guarantee it will be 50+ years before a party with a 3 point popular vote deficit has a legit shot to take the White House.
The state polls that indicated Ohio was much more severely in our direction from the nation itself were assinine. Likewise the infrequent ones showing Florida with a distinct blue tilt.
Not just Ohio. I am worried the other midwestern blue states showed a partisan index shift in our direction that is only temporary. We can't be touting pre-election polls indicating Bush's approval rating is much lower in many swing states than the nation as a whole, then ignore that when assessing our base. In Florida, Bush was more popular than nationwide and the state economy above average. I still believe that state is 50/50, not 2 points GOP as indicated this year.
Nevada, particularly southern Nevada, was gripped by terrorism fear that easily eclipsed Yucca Mountain. The 9/11 terrorists including Atta met in Las Vegas, well publicized the last few years, and the big hotels were often mentioned as possible targets. It was completely predictable Clark County would not match its Gore margin of 2000. If terrorism is down the issue list in 2008, Nevada has a chance to be a blue leaning state.
Republicans have their "Viva Bush" campaign, an effort in which field campaigners in all 33 counties try to engage Hispanic voters on the issues. They have also been deluging the airwaves with ads since March, in Spanish and English. The Democrats, whose ad blitz is more recent, have field offices geared for Hispanic volunteers to court Hispanic voters, with bilingual door-to-door canvassers and phone bankers.
"Everything that this campaign is doing in New Mexico takes the Hispanic vote into account," said Danny Diaz, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney campaign.
The reason is obvious. New Mexico has the highest proportion of Hispanics in the country -- 43 percent of its 1.8 million residents, or about 30 percent of the vote.
But Hispanics here are a tricky voting bloc, if they can even be called a voting bloc. Unlike in California, where the majority of Hispanics, or Latinos, are fairly recent immigrants, two-thirds of New Mexico's Hispanic population traces its heritage to the Spanish explorers who ventured to the New World before the Mayflower landed on Plymouth Rock. So while Democrats hold a distinct advantage among Hispanics here -- with 58 percent supporting Kerry, according to the latest Albuquerque Journal poll -- the Hispanic vote is swingy, fickle.
New Mexico's Hispanic voters do not call themselves "Latino," do not consider immigration a pressing issue and tend to side with the GOP on social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. A great majority of them were born in the United States. Both parties believe that Democrats will win a majority of the Hispanic vote. But both sides also believe that if Republicans win 40 percent of the Hispanic vote -- 5 percent more than the 35 percent Bush garnered in 2000 -- the president will win the state and, hence, the country.
New Mexico's popular Democratic governor, Bill Richardson, a bilingual Hispanic, calls the 40 percent mark "crucial." "Our objective is to maximize turnout and bring the new voters to the polls," said Richardson, who last week taped television commercials in Spanish and English to help Kerry. Voter registration rolls have swelled by 106,000 -- and counting. When all are counted, the total could be 140,000, said Brian Sanderoff, an independent pollster here. "We've isolated all the Hispanic surnames in our list of 106,000 and it comes out to 30.1 percent -- the same percentage as in the overall voting population," he said. Democrats have a registration advantage of 52 to 32 percent, or 1.6 to 1. But with Democrats less loyal than their GOP counterparts, Sanderoff said the governor is right to say Kerry needs a majority of the Hispanic vote to win the state.
Early voting began Saturday, with county clerks throughout the state describing turnout as heavy.
Republicans say they have more than 14,000 volunteers, have knocked on 40,000 doors, made almost half a million phone calls and registered 50,000 GOP voters for their effort. The Democrats will not reveal their numbers, but say they have far outdistanced the Republicans in their ground-troop efforts.