OT - Poll - Five point race in TX-10

In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas' 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.

For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty's 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.

TX-10 is described as a 'barbell district' due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the 'bar' in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.

Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.

Historically, turnout in this district doesn't include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton's popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.

There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.

528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%

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Further analysis of 2/20 TX Poll

In my poll conducted 2/20, I first asked about a general election matchup, rotating between the four McCain/Huckabee v Obama/Clinton possibilities. Second question was about the 2004 Bush v Kerry vote. Then I asked primary questions, followed by intent to attend the precinct convention (aka caucus.)

In the primary, Clinton was the easy winner among Kerry voters, as seen in this graphic:

Obama picked up more crossover votes, though Clinton got her share. But these primary votes didn't necessarily translate to general election votes. Among those that were given a GE matchup including Obama and said they would vote in the primary for Obama, 15% would vote against Obama in the GE. Among those that were given a GE matchup including Clinton and said they would vote in the primary for Clinton, 6% would vote against Clinton in the GE. Clinton's 'Democrat for a day' group was 75% female, 25% Latino while Obama's group was evenly split on gender and 100% white. Almost no DFADs planned to caucus.

This is not to say that there were no GE crossovers. The GE portion of the sample is too small to be quoting precise percentages, but the percentage of Bush voters voting Dem is twice as high as Kerry voters voting GOP. The crossovers are nowhere near enough to put Texas in play for November, however. Obama pulls about 50% more crossovers than Clinton, and both Democrats do much better against McCain than Huckabee. The poll was taken in the hours after the McCain/lobbyist news broke, though I can't say if this was well known or whether it affected these crossover numbers. Those that didn't vote in 2004 went 2-1 Democratic.

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IVR Polls TX 2/20 - C50 O45 - Clinton +8 Delegates


Revised my model to reflect increased turnout and new voters. Clinton's swing through South Texas firmed up her support there while Obama has made gains in urban areas. Things are unchanged in most of the rest of the state. Bottom line, their campaigning gains offset, while the changed model gives Obama a boost from -10 to -5.

Since I do registration based polling, I can tie the responses back to the state senate districts and predict delegates. Tiny samples, large room for error, but the errors probably balance out to some extent.

Obama cleans up in the big delegate districts, but Clinton breaks 62.5% in a lot of four delegate districts, giving her 3-1 splits. Add them all up and she gets 8 more than he does. Not the windfall she needs, but not a loss as some called based on the way the big delegate districts go.

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TX Polls - Clinton by 10, Romney by 1

With Edwards and Giuliani dropping out, I decided to poll the race in Texas before Super Tuesday next week.

November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided.  Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos.  In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure.  There is a significant gender gap as Latinos men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

Clinton 48% (46%)
Obama 38% (28%)
Gravel 3% (0%)
Undecided 10% (8%)

Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has gained the most from the narrowing field. While he has stayed in the low to mid teens since summer, conservative Thompson and Giuliani voters have picked Romney over John McCain, raising his support to 30%, a hair ahead of the Arizona Senator's 29%. Mike Huckabee follows with 20%, down for the second poll in a row. Ron Paul has his best showing at 8%, up from 4% last month. Alan Keyes, who has decided to base his campaign in Texas until March, follows with 3%. 10% are undecided.

Romney 30% (11%)
McCain 29% (24%)
Huckabee 20% (26%)
Paul 8% (4%)
Keyes 3% (0%)
Undecided 10% (8%)

Full details at IVR Polls

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50 State Blog Roundup

Posted for Betsy Muse at BlueNC

In all the mad rush surrounding this time of year bloggers at the 50 State community blogs are busy staying on top of local news.  It's a bit shorter than last week, but should give you some good reading over the weekend.

A personal thank you to Karl for putting together a comprehensive roundup for us last week and for helping me pull together submissions for this week.

Your 50 State Blog Roundup for the week of December 21, 2007 is after the break...

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Texas Polls

Latest primary polls done the past couple of days show almost no movement in the Democratic primary but big changes in the GOP version.

Last month Clinton 51%, Obama 17%, Edwards 11%, Richardson 10%
This month Clinton 51%, Obama 17%, Edwards 15%, Richardson 8%
All candidates polled, but no one else got >1%

Last month Giuliani 23%, Huckabee 16%, Thompson 16%, Romney 12%
This month Huckabee 29%, Giuliani 16%, Thompson 14%, Romney 14%
All candidates polled, but no one else got >7%

Polls 12/11-12, ~4.3 MoE for each

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Comparing Primary and General Election Voters

My usual technique for the Texas presidential primary polls is to compose my sample of voters with a history of voting in primaries, and then limiting the responses to those who say they will vote in the party's primary that they have previously voted in. It's a tight screen to reflect low turnout. The general election will see five times the number of voters as both primaries combined.

As we get to the point that more voters are tuning in, I decided to do a comparison poll of the population that does not vote in primaries, but does vote in the general elction. In the last presidential election, 7.4 million Texans voted, compared to about 840 thousand in the Democratic primary and 690 thousand in the GOP primary. One might expect the GOP to have a larger primary turnout than the Democrats since they have dominated recent general elections, but that's not the case. Only 15% of Bush voters had voted in the primary while 30% of Kerry voters had. This means that this non-primary voting population is tilted heavily in favor of Bush voters since they are a larger percentage of a larger number. Sixty-five percent of this population voted for Bush and only thirty-five percent voted for Kerry.

The line of questioning was slightly different than the primary polls. Rather than ask which party and then listing that party's candidates, I asked if the respondent had a favorite candidate, then which party that candidate belonged to and finally listed that party's candidates. I did this to focus on candidate appeal rather than party allegiance. After the candidate questions, I asked the same issue questions that were in the primary polls. General election voters, being less interested in politics, were less likely to take the poll, so I only got 375 responses, despite making 50% more calls than I usually do for the primary polls. Margin of error is larger, especially after splitting the sample three ways into both parties and 'no favorite'.

Of the respondents with a favorite, the Democrats did better than the 2004 number would indicate. Rather than a 65/35% split, Republicans only led 55/45%. It's likely that the fluctuating GOP race caused a few GOP voters to be undecided rather than picking a favorite, so that may skew the numbers a bit. However, when the numbers are broken down by gender, a clear split is observed. Men vote Republican 60/40%, not far from expected, but women vote almost exactly 50/50%. There has been speculation that Clinton may be attracting Republican women, but I can't confirm or refute that from this data. Clinton received 33% of all women's support while the GOP frontrunner Giuliani received only 16%, followed by Obama at 12% and Romney at 10%. Among men, Giuliani received 23% to Clinton's 19%, Obama's 12% and Romney's 11%. It shound be noted that both Clinton and Giuliani do better among women within their respective party primary voters. Thompson and Huckabee trail McCain among both sexes. Their strength among primary voters doesn't extend to general election voters at this point.

Ron Paul supporters have suggested that he is attracting Democratic crossover voters, but there is no evidence in these results. He received 3% of the total vote. Among only those who picked a GOP candidate as their favorite, his percentage is almost identical to his support among GOP primary voters.

After the break, I take a look at how different groups look at different issues.

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Huckabee tied with Thompson for 2nd in TX

The two main trends cross this month as Thompson drops three and Huckabee rises two to tie at 16% for second place. Romney also drops a couple of points and McCain regains three, while Giuliani maintains a clear lead despite dropping a point to 23%. Tancredo drops four to 3%, though the previous sample may have been at the upper limit of the margin of error. Technically, all candidate movement is within the 4.3% margin of error of last month.

   * Giuliani 23% (24%)
    * Huckabee 16% (14%)
    * Thompson 16% (19%)
    * Romney 12% (14%)
    * McCain 9% (6%)
    * Paul 5% (6%)
    * Tancredo 3% (7%)
    * Hunter 3% (4%)
    * Keyes 1% (0%)
    * Undecided 11% (6%)

Last month in parentheses.

500 previous TX GOP Primary voters polled 11/15/2007. Margin of Error 4.4%

More detail here and the Democratic poll here

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IVR Polls - FL 7/16

I polled Florida again, with two samples, one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in general elections and one drawn from registered Democrats who have history of voting in Demogratic primaries. I will refer to 'primary and general' voters below, but all are registered Democrats whose voting history shows them to be likely voters in 2008.

Clinton is still far ahead, but Obama has made gains over the last month. The most notable shift was among African American primary voters. Last month, African American general voters went three to one for Obama over Clinton, while African American primary voters went three to one for Clinton over Obama. This month, both groups went strongly for Obama. This shift, along with a smaller shift among white primary voters now has Clinton doing better among general voters than among primary voters, a reversal of last month's results.

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Poll: TX GOP not sure; Thompson would pass Giuliani

Thompson is their frontrunner, Jerome

I polled past TX Republican primary voters last night to see what they thought of their candidates. Among announced candidates, Giuliani is still leading, but is down from 36% in February to 25% today. McCain is about the same, 18% compared to 19% before, while Romney has moved up from 10% to 15%.
I asked whether the respondents were definitely going to support the candidate they named, or whether they were still considering others. While 64% of Ron Paul's supporters were definite that they would support their man, the other named candidates only got 23-32% definite support.

If Fred Thompson were to enter the race, he would move into the lead with 29% and knock Giuliani back to 21%. Only a third of those that were still considering others would hop on the Fred Thompson bandwagon, leaving about half the GOP Primary voters either undecided or with only weak support for a candidate.

736 past GOP primary voters surveyed, 3.6% MoE.

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