Cause for Optimism Regarding Jobs

I was looking over some interesting charts on employment history since WWII on this web site. (Yes, I am a geek, so what?) I started playing with the numbers I found there, and what I discovered gave me a very optimistic feeling about the job picture in the coming four years. I know things look pretty bad right now, and GW Bush has dug a pretty deep hole for the US job market. But take a look at the table in the extended entry, and you might feel a bit better about our prospects as a nation over the medium term - say four years.
PresidentMontly Average Change in Non-farm Private Sector Employment (thousands)Civilian Population (millions)Ratio
Clinton 1225.3193.9621.16156773
Reagan 2194.6177.3841.097054977
Clinton 2208.3202.2851.029735274
Truman 295.2103.5290.919549112
Reagan 1111.4169.1040.658766203
Eisenhower 139.9106.5940.374317504
G.W. Bush 2 (thru Oct 08 calculated)68.29224.8370.303731147
G.H. Bush30.5185.6440.164292948
Eisenhower 2-3.1111.626-.027771308
G.W. Bush 1-18.8213.888-.087896469
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The ratio I calculated in the table is jobs created per thousand population per month. I belive this is the fairest way to look at the data, but all you statisticians feel free to critique it. I knew Democrats were generally better for job creation, but I did not realize how much better. With the exception of one Reagan term, EVERY Democratic President has a better record than EVERY Republican President. Keep in mind, these numbers are for private sector jobs - you know, the sector that Republicans claim to champion.

I think Obama is getting off to a good running start in his transition so far. But even if he turns out to have just an average job creation record for a Democrat, we might be looking back with satisfaction at how well we recovered from the Bush recession of 2008-2009.

Tags: Employment, obama, statistics (all tags)



And one more thing
What's all this crap I keep hearing about Jimmy Carter and malaise? He's #2 since WW2 in job creation. Not too shabby.
by itsthemedia 2008-11-25 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: And one more thing

It's not crap. Carter was the one who used the word "Malaise", so it's his own fault for putting that in the public mind. Yes, in many respects he got a bad rap,but  "malaise" is his fault.

by Mayor McCheese 2008-11-26 05:16AM | 0 recs
You're Wrong

Carter never used the word "malaise" in his so called malaise speech. It was the media who labeled his July 15, 1979 speech as the "Malaise Speech."

by Zzyzzy 2008-11-26 07:17AM | 0 recs
its a itsthemedia diary!

do i get a unicorn?  

no but seriously who couldnt use a little bit of good economic news?

by canadian gal 2008-11-25 02:54PM | 0 recs
Ok cg, but remember ...
you ASKED for it!

by itsthemedia 2008-11-25 04:26PM | 0 recs
A Very Interesting Preliminary Study

A strong correlation is discovered. Still, only 15 data points is being used.

Another interesting fact: Since Truman's second term, only one recession has started during the six democratic presidential terms. On the other hand, nine recessions have started during the nine Republican presidential terms. If you go back to Roosevelt, four recessions have started during the ten democratic terms. Not only have there been more recessions during Republican administrations, but recessions under Republican administrations have on average have been longer and deeper.

by Zzyzzy 2008-11-26 07:26AM | 0 recs


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