An Evening With Tom Allen

A couple of evenings ago I took the plunge and blew most of this year's donation budget to spend an evening a fundraiser for Democratic Congressman and candidate for the U.S. Senate seat in Maine currently held by Susan Collins, Tom Allen.

The event was sponsored by SOSMajority (Secure Our Senate Majority), www.sosmajority.com.  SOSM is working with the DSCC and its mission is "...securing and increasing the Democratic majority in the Senate."  Its fundraising is centered around a series of events in Boston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.  Currently designated SOSM candidates include Allen, Jeff Merkley (OR), Mary Landrieu (LA), Mark Warner (VA), and Jeanne Shaheen (NH).  By early next May, SOSM expects to be supporting approximately 10 Democratic Senate candidates.  While SOSM is looking for various levels of "participation" for the whole slate of candidates ranging from $5,000 to $100,000, individual events are open in exchange for a $500 donation.

More below the fold.

 

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Please compile links to sites for real-time results

I've tried Googling various SoS offices but mainly they provide tallies after the election.

Can we make this a group effort to put up links for a given state?  

I'd really like to get Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire up ASAP.

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Generic Ballot Numbers: wide divergence

There has been some stomach clenching and orifice tightening in the past few days as the Pew Poll has showed the Democratic advantage in the generic Congressional poll dropping to 4 points, the ABC/WaPo poll showing a spread of 6 points, and the USA TODAY/Gallup poll showing a spread of seven points.

After all, for much of the past few months many generic Congressional polls have indicated a Democratic advantage somewhere in the 8-13 point range.

So things are suddenly trending badly for the Democrats as Buyers contemplate pre-voting remorse, right?   Umm...probably not.  More on the flip.

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Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

(Originally posted 10/7/06, reposted as Election Day draws nigh)

Well now that we're 12 days out from election day, I've put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races.  

I've aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.

Aside from a tracking device, I've decided to use it as an elections predictions contest, probably the biggest and most comprehensive out there.  In addition to posting it on MyDD, I'll be posting it in a couple of other venues.  More below the fold.

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House at tipping point according to CQ

Congressional Quarterly (CQ) has a very conservative--in the sense of cautious, not ideology--approach to rating races.  The thumb is on the scale for incumbents and those with more money.

But there's been a tectonic shift in their evaluation of races in the past month as races have been moved from Republican Safe to Republican Favored, Republican Favored to Republican Lean, Republican Lean to No Clear Favorite.  Dozens of GOP races have shifted in the Democratic direction, only two or three Democratic-held seats have shifted in the Republican direction and no Democratic seats are evaluated as worse than a Lean Democratic.

In contrast, 18 Republican-held seats are currenty rated No Clear Favorite.  CQ's current tally is 208 Democratic seats, 208 Republican seats, and these 18 with No Clear Favorite. More numbers below the fold.

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Notes on Phone Banking in CA campaign

I did my first stint phone banking for the Democratic campaigns in West L.A. today.  I hate phone banking but I do it because it's important.  I hate cold calling so much that even as a real estate agent it's not part of the way I do business just because I can't stand to be cold called.  But for the election I put aside my qualms and do it and actually do it fairly well I think.

Anyway, it was a mid-afternoon shift as opposed to the more normal late afternoon/early evening gig.   The greatest utility I had was probably noting all the "moved" telephone numbers for the precinct I was calling, cleaning up the list for those who followed.

And fortuantely my bad Spanish is good enough to say "I don't speak Spanish, I'm sorry" when contacting a Spanish-only speaking voter.
The point of this post below the fold.

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Election Scorecard & Prediction Contest

Well now that we're a month out from election day, I've put together an election scorecard of the 36 Governors races, all 33 Senate races, and 90 of the most likely House races.  

I've aleady been using a printout to note polling results, etc.

Aside from a tracking device, I've decided to use it as an elections predictions contest.  In addition to posting it on MyDD, I'll be posting it in a couple of other venues.  More below the fold.

There's more...

forthcoming AP/IPSOS poll (early 10/06)

I was polled via telephone for the AP/IPSOS poll last night.  I've been polled on various local issues before but never by one of the biggies.

There was a series of questions as to which party I thought handled various issues.   There was only one where I even thought of saying "Both," all the rest were "Democratic."

Then there was the standard question of did I approve of Bush or not and to what degree, ditto for Bush's policies on Iraq, "the war on terrorism," the economy, etc.  More below the fold:

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Plate Tectonics: Movement in House Races with poll

Like any junky with too much time on his hands while waiting for election day to approach (less than 930 hours until the first polls close), I patrol sites like MyDD, CQPolitics, the Cook Political Report, etc. several times a day to find new polling data and opinions about the status of various races, particularly in the House.

I like reading the Cook Political Report because they have a table of races that's very strong and clear visually and they include the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for every race they judge to be in play.  Furthermore Cook is conservative in the sense of "cautious."

Tonight I was struck with the notion of comparing the status of House races in the most recent report (9/20) with one published six months ago (March 31).  Good news & juicy nuggets below the fold.

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Poll: What is the religious affiliation of MyDD readers?

Prompted by Matt's poll to get a snapshot of MyDD's racial profile, I thought it would be interested to see the religious inclinations of MyDD readers.

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Diaries

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