Election Predictions (President, Governors, Senate, House)

Following is my thumbnail analysis and predictions for the Presidential, Governors, Senate, and House races tomorrow.

Less than nine hours until voting starts in Dixville Notch....

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11/3 Zogby: Obama 50.9, McCain 43.8

Obama up 1.4 from yesterday, McCain flat.

Yeah, I know Zogby is crap.  But right now their crap is consistent with the better polls, within reason.

Turnout model is the true mystery and one doesn't have to be a Republican troll to use a conservative model.  E.g., more campaigns have bet the farm and proceeded to die when counting on the under-30 vote.  

Right now it's looking like Obama by 5 to 8 percent.  I'll be startled if it really reaches 10 percent or more as a few are predicting.

Poll junkies will start going through withdrawal soon.  Let's see...Dixville Notch starts voting in less than 35 hours.

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Yet Another Election Prediction Contest

Here's yet another election prediction contest covering all 50 states, 11 Governor's races, 35 Senate races, and 109 House races.

Instructions:

Presidential: for each state, indicate the winner, Obama or McCain.

Governors, Senate, House: delete the line of who you think will be the loser.

Tie-breaker: Indicate what you think Obama's winning (or losing) margin will be to the nearest tenth of a percentage point, e.g, +6.3, -1.2, etc.

Complete contest below the fold.

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10/31 Zogby: Obama 50.1, McCain 43.1

Statistical noise.  

Obama drops .1 from yesterday, McCain drops .2 from yesterday.

I'm cautious in my own take on turnout models and I expect McCain to close from 1.5 to 2.5 points on election day between some Republicans coming home and the undecideds breaking slightly against Obama.

Otoh, if the Obama turnout machine is really effective and the newly registerd voters turn out in high proportion, it'll be a rout.

And that's where it stands right now:  somewhere between a victory and a rout.

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Breaking: 10/22 Zogby: 0bama 51.6, McCain 42

Apparently just posted on the Zogby website.  Obama needs these numbers to hold for another week so that Republicans lose all hope of closing the gap.  Then the retributions, circular firing squad, and plummeting morale can hurt GOP turnout even more and help some down-ballot races.

But first things first...let's hope that something like these numbers hold.

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Is Bushism Killing the Republican Party? (with poll)

Karl Rove, architect of George Bush's 2000 and 2004 election victories, spoke in a messianic manner about a permanent Republican majority, built up a Republican base of economic conservatives, Iraq hawks, gun-loving libertarians, and evangelical Christians, augmented by peeling off from the Democrats a percentage of Hispanic voters and working-class women.

In a Rovian view, this process began with the 1994 seizure of Congress under the leadership of Newt Gingrich and was crowned by the election of Bush in 2000, the post-9/11 takeover of the Senate in 2002, and Bush's reelection accompanied by further gains in the Senate in 2004.

cross-posted at http://outsidetheechosphere.wordpress.co m/

More after the fold.

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McCain: Sitzkrieg?

McCain Campaign: Sitzkrieg?

An underlying assumption about tempered expectations is that the Republican campaign will, at some point, launch into high gear in a nasty but effective manner we've come to expect.   Certainly, Obama's current bump in the poll numbers and all the dizzy expectations within the echosphere are partly an artifact of McCain's campaign not making any significant demonstration of force.   It can certainly be argued that McCain has squandered-in terms of time, money, and message-the advantage he's had since clinching the Republican nomination.

So outside the echosphere we're waiting for reality to hit and expectations to become a bit more sober but it's a fair question to ask:  when and how will McCain and the various 527 allies start hitting back effectively?   So far, they aren't.   The shots at Obama have been almost desultory, ill-coordinated, and with little effect.  McCain also hasn't set a grueling pace as a campaigner.

Cross-posted from http://outsidetheechosphere.wordpress.co m/

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Is Obama's glass 7/8 full or 1/2 empty?

There's little doubt that this is looking like a Democratic year. Obama has a number of impressive things going for him:

1) Advantage in Democratic registration. Rasmussen currently has it at 41.4 D, 31.7 R, 26.9 I...the largest gap since they began tracking party I.D. six years ago. [Nov. 04: 38.8D, 37.1 R, 24.1 I; Nov. 06 37.5 D, 31.4 R, 31.2 D. ]

2) The right track/wrong track number is 17/79. [Rasmussen]

3) Bush's approval rating is at a new low, 31 percent. [Rasmussen]

More beneath the fold.  Cross-posted from:  http://outsidetheechosphere.wordpress.co m/

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Electoral College Guess, 6/5/08

I looked at the polls, took measure of my historical experiences, and checked my gut.   Looking at the Electoral College, right now my guess is another 2000:   265 Obama, 273 McCain.

I have the following switches from 2004:

Bush to Obama:

Colorado (9)
Virginia (13)
Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)

Kerry to McCain:

Michigan (17)
New Hampshire (4)

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Why this HRC supporter will vote for Obama (with poll)

Okay, I'm angry.  I'm also disappointed.  In terms of political outcomes, this is the worst I've felt about a Democratic nomination in 40 years and in level of pain it's just a couple of notches below Gore/Bush 2000 and about on the level Kerry/Bush 2004.

I started out ambivalent about Hillary Clinton and came to admire her deeply.  I sent her campaign several hundred dollars that I really couldn't afford because I believed in her (also sent money to Tom Allen and Tom Udall...didn't but all my eggs in one basket).  I think she would make a very good president on her own merits and it wouldn't matter to me whether her last name were Clinton or Chryztowski.

I'm writing this to persuade Hillary supporters who might be dubious about Obama or outright hostile to go ahead and suck it up and vote for him.

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Diaries

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