On this, I think you're wrong. The Republican True Believers are fired up about Palin. Competence, knowledge, etc., doesn't matter to them. Assuming McCain loses, 2012 is going to include Mittster, Palin, and perhaps Huckabee as the major contenders.
Hoping the bail out doesn't pass is a cut-off-your-nose-to-spite-your face kind of reaction.
Credit is effectively money until it evaporates. The credit crisis---which is what this is---doesn't just affect the plutocrats and kleptocrats accountable for making this mess, it effects tens of millions of Americans...and probably billions of people worldwide...who are "collateral damage" to this financial equivalent of a neutron bomb.
From businesses who rely upon credit for their operations, and hence their employees and customers, to individuals, the present situation is a disaster.
You think you're not affected? Wait until you have to sell a house and can't because the would-be buyers can't get a home. Wait until goods and service providers you rely upon can't deliver what you want and even go out of business.
It's that serious.
Now I have no love for the plutocrats and kleptocrats and I dearly hope this event spells the death of the acceptance of unregulated business activity. The pendulum has swung far too much to the right since 1981 and Ronald Reagan. But the valid cure is not an equal and opposite swing to the left.
I wouldn't characterize Obama as too liberal or too conservative. I'd characterize as too much a souffle: an idealist with too little scrap, too little core "there" there. I saw it in the primary and I see it now. I don't believe in muzzy notions of "post-partisanship." There is no "Change I can believe in" that isn't rooted in staggering naivete.
I'll be happy if he gets 270 EV (or even 269). The notion that Obama was going to score 330 EV always was absurd. If he gets 300, that would be a relative landslide.
It takes more than soaring oratory to win a campaign.
I was very underwhelmed by Warner...had expected much better based upon all that I've heard & read. Whereas I now see what the excitement about Brian Schweitzer was all about...the real deal.
And Hillary was truly magnificent. She vindicated everything I ever thought about her. I still mourn that that she's not our candidate. (Note for the reading impaired: this doesn't mean that I'm not voting for Obama.)
Lieberman wasn't kicked out, he chose to run as a me-first independent when he figured out he was going to lose the Democratic primary. He votes with Democrats on issues except for Iraq and national security and he hasn't been thrown out for that but should be for the way he goes about: giving aid and comfort to the administration of one of the stupidest, mindlessly jingoistic presidents we've ever had (though McCain might choose to give Bush a run for the money on the latter scale if elected).
Please do not confuse "pro-military" with "pro-fucking-imbecilic Iraq war." You'll do yourself a service.
Your fooling yourself if you think it's only three dozen votes at stake. The problem isn't the Hillary voters who are going for McCain. It's the 27 percent of them who are uncertain. The defections are normal, regardless of candidate. To have roughly 15 percent on the fence at this time is a critical problem. Unless you think the Obama echosphere voters count more than everyone else's.
There is nothing that Obama can do, he simply is and we're stuck with playing out these cards. I think Obama is the weakest candidate since Dukakis. Painful, because this year should be a Democratic slam-dunk.
There's no doubt that Obama has excited and captured the imaginations of many. There's equally no doubt that many others look at Obama and ask the first group, "Wtf are you talking about?"
I see a guy who can make great speeches and in whom I have little confidence.
After eight years of the inarticulate doofus in the White House now, Obama's ability to be articulate and see the world in nuanced terms is refreshing. But I don't see Change that I can believe in. I see a glib inexperienced snakeoil salesman without much of a Clue. Wince. I'm voting for Obama because I think he'll be a bad president in contrast to McCain whom I know will be a bad president.
I'm not saying that Obama didn't win. I'm saying that Clinton got more Democratic votes. And it's a distinction I hold important. I have never succumbed to the belief of letting indies and Republicans have a say in the Democratic nominating process. It's as if I have a say in what your family has for dinner.
The bar is low. All you have to do is register as a Democrat. If you're not willing to do that, why you should get a voice in determining the Democratic nominee is beyond me.
And, yes, I've heard all the arguments about increasing participation yada yada yada. Bullfeathers.
Anyone who thinks that Hillary gave the Republicans the playbook on how to attack McCain is a fool. Obama's profile makes the lines of attack obvious; any candidate's profile makes the line of attack obvious.
Fortunately for Obama, the Republican attacks on Obama piss me off slightly more than sanctimonious Obama supporters.