• comment on a post Election Prediction Thread over 5 years ago

    Electoral College:   Obama 364, McCain 174

    Popular vote:  Obama 51.5, McCain 46.9, Other 1.6

    Senate:  D + 7  (plus Martin in run-off vs. Chambliss)

    House:   Democrats pick up 36 seats.

    Musgrave, Bachmann, and Scmidt all go down.  (Well, I can indulge myself a little, can't I?)

    I hope Prop. 8 goes down in California...it's ugly bigotry.

  • comment on a post Not all religious folks oppose marriage equality over 5 years ago

    Just because my church does not support gay marriage is no reason that members of other churches should not be able to sponsor gay marriages.   (For that matter, many of us in my church--Roman Catholic--support gay marriage but as for the institutional church, it's going to be a long hard slog, probably not completed in my lifetime.  Married priests and/or women priests will come first....)

  • comment on a post Barack Obama Doesn't Support CA Proposition 10 over 5 years ago

    Prop 10 is one of those many "sounds like a good idea" props that's either badly written or self-serving in the direction opposite to what the title would make you think.    

    I'm voting "No" on most except 1A and 11, the Veterans Bond, and 8, the last of which I'm voting "Hell no!"

  • I think Arizona is the next North Carolina, a conservative state trending more liberal via immigration and changing demographics.   Virginia leap-frogged North Carolina by virtue of the population growth in NoVA.  I have to admit, I was a bit late in seeing that one coming.

  • My income sucks right now but I sent in $50 to "No on 8" tonight.   I told the spouse that I'd skip meat for a few meals.  And this from me, a member of PETA...People Eating Tasty Animals.

  • Elsewhere, I predicted that the race would tighten by 1.5 to 2.0 points in the last week.  

    McCain had been drawing only 85 percent of the self-identified Republicans.  I figure that as push comes to shove, 5-7 percent more would say, "Oh...I don't like him but I guess I better vote for him" in the last 10 days.

    I think Obama's final margin will be between 3.5 and 5.0 percent.

  • on a comment on Open Thread over 5 years ago

    THEN we will be counting the hours?

    Whaddaya mean?   As of now, only slightly more than 141 hours until voting starts in Dixville notch.  I've been keeping a mental countdown clock since about the 400-hour mark.
     

  • If you think that Gates can close Gitmo over the objections of Bush & Cheney, I have some bridges I'd like to sell you.

    I agree with Reap.  Gates has been a moderating influence and he's pretty damned competent, whether you agree with him on everything or not.  I'm confident that if Obama orders some changes of direction, Gates will execute accordingly.

    I don't know who Obama has in his camp with high-level, credible military policy background.   I was a hell of a lot more comfortable with Hillary's crew.   Wes Clark may play a role somewhere but I don't know that SecDef is it.

    Good post, Reap.  

  • I've never seen a straight marriage threatened by a gay marriage.  Usually, if it's threatened, it's by a heterosexual third party.

  • Different WSJ.

  • If Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico and holds all the Kerry states, any other toss-up state gives Obama the election.  

    Playing Pennsylvania is McCain's slender hope of winning; e.g., he can then lose Colorado and Virginia and still win the election.  Without Pennsylvania McCain is dead meat.  Going after Pennsylvania is McCain's best option out of a bunch of bad ones.   Fwiw, that calculus also plays into him campaigning in Iowa...an even more foolhardy choice, imo.

  • on a comment on Open Thread over 5 years ago

    Thanks, Steve.  I thought it was the new Congress.  And then I read the 12th Amendment.  Without reading the 20th.  

  • on a comment on Open Thread over 5 years ago

    Hmm.

    I just read the 12th Amendment.  It says the House shall vote immediately, if necessary, after the Electoral votes are counted.

    But both House and Senate have a 2/3 quorum requirement and language suggests that the issue could drag out into the new Congress.

    So the House could proclaim Obama...and then all sorts of hinky tricks could occur in the Senate with the Democrats foiling the 2/3 quorum requirement if necessary.

  • comment on a post Open Thread over 5 years ago

    I think the vote is taken by the new House/Senate.

  • If you or your church has no desire to recognize gay marriage, that's your right.

    Your views should not be imposed on the rest of us.

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