Just because my church does not support gay marriage is no reason that members of other churches should not be able to sponsor gay marriages. (For that matter, many of us in my church--Roman Catholic--support gay marriage but as for the institutional church, it's going to be a long hard slog, probably not completed in my lifetime. Married priests and/or women priests will come first....)
I think Arizona is the next North Carolina, a conservative state trending more liberal via immigration and changing demographics. Virginia leap-frogged North Carolina by virtue of the population growth in NoVA. I have to admit, I was a bit late in seeing that one coming.
Elsewhere, I predicted that the race would tighten by 1.5 to 2.0 points in the last week.
McCain had been drawing only 85 percent of the self-identified Republicans. I figure that as push comes to shove, 5-7 percent more would say, "Oh...I don't like him but I guess I better vote for him" in the last 10 days.
I think Obama's final margin will be between 3.5 and 5.0 percent.
If you think that Gates can close Gitmo over the objections of Bush & Cheney, I have some bridges I'd like to sell you.
I agree with Reap. Gates has been a moderating influence and he's pretty damned competent, whether you agree with him on everything or not. I'm confident that if Obama orders some changes of direction, Gates will execute accordingly.
I don't know who Obama has in his camp with high-level, credible military policy background. I was a hell of a lot more comfortable with Hillary's crew. Wes Clark may play a role somewhere but I don't know that SecDef is it.
If Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico and holds all the Kerry states, any other toss-up state gives Obama the election.
Playing Pennsylvania is McCain's slender hope of winning; e.g., he can then lose Colorado and Virginia and still win the election. Without Pennsylvania McCain is dead meat. Going after Pennsylvania is McCain's best option out of a bunch of bad ones. Fwiw, that calculus also plays into him campaigning in Iowa...an even more foolhardy choice, imo.