NM-01: Madrid Holds Clear Lead in Final Independent Poll
by hilltopper, Sun Nov 05, 2006 at 07:38:11 AM EST
In a new poll, Dem Patsy Madrid has expanding her lead over incumbent Rep Heather Wilson to 49-45. This is the latest Albuquerque Journal/Research and Polling poll by veteran New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff. He has polled New Mexico for years and has polled this race four times.
The trends are all in one direction -- good.
Trends: (Today, Oct, Aug, earlier)
Patricia Madrid - 49 (45) (44) (42)
Heather Wilson - 45 (42) (44) (45).
When leaners are added, the lead stays at four, 50-46.
ABQ Journal pollster Sanderoff has a strong historical record and in 20 years, has picked the winning candidate all but twice. One note from Joe Monahan's blog, "[t]he higher the turnout goes Election Day, the worse for Wilson. The lower, the better for her."
This race has been one of the true toss-up for the entire year. I compare it to the Missouri senate race where neither candidate ever could break away. (The Hotline once ranked it in the top 10, but now ranks it #18.) This poll, especially with the trend lines, is a real good sign.