The women who made "Senator Obama Goes To Africa" are shooting a feature length documentary about the campaign, it's being edited by frequent Spike Lee collaborator Sam Pollard (who edited When The Levees Broke, 4 Little Girls, Clockers, Mo' Better Blues, Bamboozled, Chisolm '72, etc) and executive produced by Edward Norton. I'm sure there are more than a few other campaign '08 related documentaries in the works as well.
That's the highest I can imagine Obama getting, giving McCain only 18 states: AZ, UT, ID, AK, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, and SC. 400 seems totally impossible.
Before we get too confident though, I heard from a good source in the PA campaign that the Obama campaign's internal numbers look a hell of a lot tighter than any of these public polls. They could just be bluffing to get their people to recruit more volunteers, but this staffer seemed to really believe it was true.
I don't think Joe Biden is stupid enough to take the bait, especially not after a week of preparing for exactly that scenario. It should be much easier for Biden to lay off her than for Palin to get in her anti-Obama barbs, draw Biden into a gaffe, and also come off as knowledgeable on the issues. The GOP's only hope is for the post-debate spin to center on Ifill's supposed bias, and I doubt that storyline is going to get much play.
I know everyone's supposed to be raising expectations for Palin, but I just have to point out that you judge a debate by the short clips and soundbites that come out of it. Does anyone doubt that Palin's inevitable stumbles will be played over and over again after the debate, even if she puts in an otherwise decent performance? I just don't think there's any way tonight's debate will help McCain/Palin.
Just because an economic crisis is good for Obama doesn't mean we should actively avoid trying to fix the situation. That is an incredibly cynical thing to suggest. Something needs to be done in the short term to deal with the potentially catastrophic damage in the credit market, for businesses and for people borrowing money for their homes and their kids' college tuition. People like Kos and Jerome Armstrong and Chris Bowers are simply not credible when they rail against addressing the situation. Just read Krugman's blog if you want proof that economists on the left believe something urgently needs to happen, even if the plan is imperfect.
The Dems' tactic is to tweak the bill so that Republicans, not Democrats, put it over the top. That way the plan cannot become a political liability for Democrats in Congress. More will need to be done later on, when Obama is President and the Dems have an even firmer hold on the House and Senate.
Besides, all the evidence suggests the public is coming around to supporting some kind of bailout/rescue package. The tumbling Dow scared a lot of people, and had a real impact on people with 401Ks and IRAs. And most economists agree that yesterday's improvement was just a "dead cat" bounce caused by investors trying to make a quick buck off the bargain stocks. McCain is going to vote for this bill, Obama is going to vote for it too. It won't be an issue in the Presidential campaign. Relax.
That post was written specifically about the bill that failed to pass yesterday. Krugman indicated that it was a far from perfect piece of legislation, but absolutely necessary to ensure the safety of the American economy.
"If there's one person that I would point to in the establishment press that was there during the wilderness, the period of '01-'03, before Dean arrived on the scene, it was Paul Krugman. The guy should be awarded some sort of Presidential award by the next President for his truth telling while nearly all the rest of the establishment press could only be found on their knees in front of BushCo during the beginning of this decade."
Krugman on the bailout:
"It's true that some parts of the real economy are doing OK even in the face of financial disruption. But commercial paper, which is important to a lot of businesses, is in trouble, and I'm hearing anecdotes about reduced credit lines causing smaller businesses to pull back. Plus there's a serious chance of a run on the hedge funds, which could make things a lot worse. With the economy already looking like it's headed into a serious recession by any definition, the risks of doing nothing look too high."
Fair points, but keep in mind the likely voter screen probably favors older, more Republican voters. Evangelicals will turn out for Palin, but young people and African-Americans should turn out in huge numbers for Obama. This poll is very, very reassuring in my opinion, especially considering that it was taken at what should be the height of McCain's convention bounce. We can still win VA with a good ground game.
My mom has had a "Feminists For Life" bumper sticker on her car for years. Let me tell you it is NOT a feminist group at all, just a branch of "National Right To Life" with a cleverly deceptive name. As you might imagine, people like my mother are absolutely giddy about McCain's choice. Palin in an arch-Conservative anti-choice activist. People have been talking about Harriet Miers today, but Palin is really the equivalent of Bush I's pick of Clarence Thomas for the Supreme Court. The far right is using her as a token to further their extremist cause, and John McCain thinks American women are stupid enough to fall for it. It's kind of amazing that Biden will be right there with Barack for this fight, since he ran the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but I don't think the Right is going to win this time. NOW, NARAL, Emily's List, Hillary, Michelle, and Jill are going to have to go after this woman, big time.