More precisely:

61,857,928 votes for Kerry

49,942,157 votes for Bush

1,441,478 votes for Nader

How did I come up with such (rather nice) numbers?

First, I took the popular vote from 2000: http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/prespop.htm (giving Bush's numbers to Bush, Gore's numbers to Kerry, and Nader's numbers to Nader)

Then, I looked at this poll I'm always quoting: http://www.worldpoll.com/press_room_wppk_qr.phtml

Following what it suggested, I first took 14% of Bush's numbers and gave them to Kerry, then I took 5% of Gore's numbers and gave them to Bush.

Then, using Ross Perot as a guide (comparing his 1996 results with his 1992 ones), I chopped Nader's vote in half. I gave one quarter to Kerry, and threw away one quarter (people who won't vote this time or who will vote for Cobb).

Then, since Karl Rove said there were 4 million evangelical Christians who failed to vote in 2000, and he's putting out the GOTV to get them, I gave Bush that 4 million.

Since our side's GOTV are rather insane, too, I multiplied the result I had for Kerry by 110%. Not unrealistic, I don't think-may even be conservative.

There you go. Note that even if you give Kerry zero votes from Nader, **AND** assume our GOTV doesn't work at all, **AND** still give Bush his four million, Kerry is still up by over five million votes, merely from the 14% vs. 5% crossover vote differential.

I hope I did all my math correctly. :)