Zogby Florida poll: Clinton 36%, Obama 16%, Edwards 11%
by georgep, Mon Jun 11, 2007 at 06:56:29 AM EDT
If the election were held today, Clinton and Giuliani would be the clear winners in Florida. Clinton snared 36 percent of Democratic voters, while Giuliani got 31 percent of Republicans in the Zogby International poll.
Just as Romney quickly made an impression, so did one of the Democratic newcomers to national politics. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama came in second place with 16 percent, statistically tying former vice presidential nominee John Edwards with 11 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the only Hispanic seeking the nomination, got 6 percent.
Quinnipiac University May 24-June 4, 2007 Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 16, Al Gore 13%, John Edwards 11%, Bill Richardson 5%, Biden 2%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich 1%, Clark -, Gravel -, Other 2%, Don't Know 14%
IVR Polls May 31, 2007 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 18%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Undecided 11%, Others <3%. 20% would switch to Gore if he entered.
Datamar 05/14 - 05/18 Clinton 24%, Obama 19%, Edwards 26%
Strategic Vision (R) May 11-13, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 20%, John Edwards 19%, Joseph Biden 5%, Bill Richardson 4%, Christopher Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Undecided 12%
St. Petersburg Times May 6-9, 2007 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 19%, John Edwards 12%, Joe Biden 4%, Bill Richardson 2%, Mike Gravel -, Chris Dodd -, Dennis Kucinich -, Undecided 17%
American Research Group May 4-8, 2007 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 15%, Biden 3%, Bill Richardson 3%, Clark 1%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich 1%, Gravel -, Undecided 14%
This poll continues and underscores Clinton's strong showing in my state, Florida. Zogby is showing a 20% margin between Clinton and Obama, which is above the averages for this particular poll sequence, but within the margin of error. Obama and Edwards both have their work cut out for them if they want to dent this lead. I will update with demographic breakdowns when I get the actual Zogby datasheet.
The GOP race
Fred Thompson 10%
Zogby's GOP analysis
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who was virtually unknown in Florida before his first visit in January, is starting to make inroads. He tied Arizona Sen. John McCain - a well-known national figure since his 2000 presidential bid - with each garnering 12 percent.
"We have a Romney ascendancy, and that's at the expense of John McCain within the last month," Zogby said.
Just two points behind was Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and actor, who has not officially entered the race. His showing, along with the 8 percent of Republicans who said they prefer another undeclared candidate, suggests that many GOP voters are still waiting to be charmed.
The survey, conducted for The Herald and WFOR-CBS4 in association with the Palm Beach Post and WPEC Channel 12, included 326 likely Republican voters and 332 likely Democratic voters from June 4-6. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percent.