Zogby Florida poll: Clinton 36%, Obama 16%, Edwards 11%

The poll

http://www.popmatters.com/pm/news/articl e/42453/clinton-giuliani-lead-in-florida /

If the election were held today, Clinton and Giuliani would be the clear winners in Florida. Clinton snared 36 percent of Democratic voters, while Giuliani got 31 percent of Republicans in the Zogby International poll.

Just as Romney quickly made an impression, so did one of the Democratic newcomers to national politics. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama came in second place with 16 percent, statistically tying former vice presidential nominee John Edwards with 11 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the only Hispanic seeking the nomination, got 6 percent.

Trendlines

Quinnipiac University May 24-June 4, 2007 Hillary Clinton 34%, Barack Obama 16, Al Gore 13%, John Edwards 11%, Bill Richardson 5%, Biden 2%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich 1%, Clark -, Gravel -, Other 2%, Don't Know 14%

IVR Polls May 31, 2007 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 18%, John Edwards 14%, Bill Richardson 7%, Undecided 11%, Others <3%. 20% would switch to Gore if he entered.

Datamar 05/14 - 05/18 Clinton 24%, Obama 19%, Edwards 26%

Strategic Vision (R) May 11-13, 2007 Hillary Clinton 37%, Barack Obama 20%, John Edwards 19%, Joseph Biden 5%, Bill Richardson 4%, Christopher Dodd 2%, Dennis Kucinich 1%, Undecided 12%

St. Petersburg Times May 6-9, 2007 Hillary Clinton 42%, Barack Obama 19%, John Edwards 12%, Joe Biden 4%, Bill Richardson 2%, Mike Gravel -, Chris Dodd -, Dennis Kucinich -, Undecided 17%

American Research Group May 4-8, 2007 Hillary Clinton 45%, Barack Obama 17%, John Edwards 15%, Biden 3%, Bill Richardson 3%, Clark 1%, Dodd 1%, Kucinich 1%, Gravel -, Undecided 14%

My analysis

This poll continues and underscores Clinton's strong showing in my state, Florida.  Zogby is showing a 20% margin between Clinton and Obama, which is above the averages for this particular poll sequence, but within the margin of error.   Obama and Edwards both have their work cut out for them if they want to dent this lead.   I will update with demographic breakdowns when I get the actual Zogby datasheet.

The GOP race

Giuliani 31%

Romney  12%

McCain 12%

Fred Thompson 10%

Zogby's GOP analysis

Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who was virtually unknown in Florida before his first visit in January, is starting to make inroads. He tied Arizona Sen. John McCain - a well-known national figure since his 2000 presidential bid - with each garnering 12 percent.

"We have a Romney ascendancy, and that's at the expense of John McCain within the last month," Zogby said.

Just two points behind was Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator and actor, who has not officially entered the race. His showing, along with the 8 percent of Republicans who said they prefer another undeclared candidate, suggests that many GOP voters are still waiting to be charmed.

Poll methodology

The survey, conducted for The Herald and WFOR-CBS4 in association with the Palm Beach Post and WPEC Channel 12, included 326 likely Republican voters and 332 likely Democratic voters from June 4-6. The margin of error was plus or minus 5.5 percent.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards (all tags)

Comments

23 Comments

Florida's the new South Carolina
Heavily over-polled, especially when on considers that Florida polls after Iowa and New Hampshire will probably be unrecognizable to the ones that came before.

Still, Clinton's large Florida edge could serve as a "plan B" to rebuild momentum for February 5th, should things turn ill for her in Iowa and New Hampshire. If she doesn't performw ell in either state, she should probably camp out in Florida for what will probably be at least the two weeks separating New Hampshire and Florida.
by Chris Bowers 2007-06-11 07:02AM | 0 recs
Zogby is erratic

His polls are not among the most accurate. I'll wait for the next Quinnipiac.

by kingsbridge77 2007-06-11 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

We JUST had a Quinnipiac Florida poll a couple of days ago:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?Rele aseID=1074

They had basically the exact same findings as Zogby.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

Zogby said this poll is mainly name recognition:

Clinton far outpaced Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (15.6 percent) and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (10.9 percent). But nearly 60 percent of Democrats surveyed said they are very likely or somewhat likely to change their minds.

Although Clinton had a more than 2-1 lead over her nearest rival, Democratic strategist Robin Rorapaugh said Clinton may have a tougher time climbing past 36 percent than the other Democratic candidates.

"Hillary is the one candidate in the Democratic race where 100 percent of people have formed an opinion of her," said Rorapaugh, who is not working for any of the presidential candidates. "It is going to be harder for her to grow."

Edwards and Obama have spent little time campaigning here. Edwards has concentrated much of his campaign effort in Iowa, while Obama has campaigned hard in New Hampshire and California, which has a primary on Feb. 5, along with a score of other states.

Giuliani also is well-known, but Rorapaugh said most voters in Florida connect him to his leadership after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. "People still have a lot to learn about him as mayor before 9/11 and as a federal prosecutor," she said.

The poll was commissioned by The Post, The Miami Herald, WPEC News 12 in West Palm Beach and WFOR CBS 4 in Miami.

by BDM 2007-06-11 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

Ah, I get it.  Obama and Edwards are REALLY institutionally strong here, despite their bad poll numbers.  

That is, of course, not the case.  

Is Clinton "in the clear" here, has already won the state?   No, of course not.  But she is a ton closer than either Edwards or Obama to building a massive following in this state that is not likely to jump off.  Edwards and Obama have virtually no support in this state, and at some point they have to build a massive operation and tremendous support in as important a state as Florida.  

Things are looking very good for Clinton here, and, as I said, Obama and Edwards have their work cut out for them if they want to cut into that lead.   So far they have not shown good here at all.   And of that 28% "unsure" folks a good chunk could go to Clinton, getting her darn close or over the 50% mark in the state.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 07:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

Again Zogby say's this poll is name recognition and 60% of the primary voter's could and will probably change their mind.

Zogby reviews the hard data and probably has more in-sight to his poll rather than Georgp unless he is a professional pollster and has reviewed Zogby's hard data.

My reading of Zogby's comments is that he basically is dis-missing this poll.

by BDM 2007-06-11 07:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

No, he claims that part of it is name recognition.  How that explains Obama's and Edwards' very low polling numbers must be clear only to BDM, who pretends to be a professional pollster.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

He said mostly name recognition.

My post above also quotes a democratic strategist in Fl with ties to no campaign saying, that Clinton is probably at her peak in Fl at 36%

Georgep you are so interested in poll's and rely so much on them. Thus today:

Hillary win's the Democratic nomination
Guliani win's the Republican nomination

Guliani wins the presidency RCP AVG: 4.2% over Clinton.

I am sure you don't believe those as final GE results for Nov. 2008

Thus we who don't support HRC don't believe that she will be the democratic nominee, also based on current poll results.

by BDM 2007-06-11 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

IVR polls showed us that her FL ceiling is much higher than 36%, as did other previous polls.   Why would what a strategist believes make a difference?  It does not.  

You bash every poll you dislike and praise every poll you like.  That is fine with me, although it basically makes your "analysis" worthless.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic
It's no mystery why Hillary can't apologize for her war vote or say "I was wrong" like Edwards.  She'd be dissing the media corporations who sold the war and their corporate $ponsors funding her campaign.
I worked in Bill's 2 campaigns, but they Clintons have moved soooo farrrr right - right into the hands of Republican corporatists - and I won't be voting for Hillary.
She's very dirty and deceptive!
by annefrank 2007-06-11 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby is erratic

Fine.  At least I know what bias corner your comments in the future come from.   You can obviously not be trusted to make a statement that is not full of hate about a candidate who is so obviously "dirty and deceptive."

by georgep 2007-06-11 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Florida poll:

Among Republican voters, 30 percent said they weren't sure, preferred an undeclared candidate or won't vote. Among Democrats, 28 percent were in limbo.

''This poll in Florida reflects what the national polls are showing,'' pollster John Zogby said. ``This is all wide open. The campaign has not been engaged sufficiently in Florida for us to get a real read.''

by Lorraine 2007-06-11 07:33AM | 0 recs
tv ads don't matter donations dont

either, because Hillary's netroots team says so, she's inevitable deal with it, in fact I think Obama should use his ad budget to run pro Hillart ads and never mention she is borderline un-electable in a general because he should be a team player. Why don't you stupid netroots voters get on the titanic with hillary instead of trying to rescue the party, after all loyalty to ehr is the sign of being a good democrat.

by nevadadem 2007-06-11 07:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Florida poll: Clinton 36%, Obama 16%, E

Richardson's numbers are interesting. I think that is the first he has been that high in Florida. Edwards is vulnerable at 11%.

by robliberal 2007-06-11 07:56AM | 0 recs
Time to educate America on Rudy

Rudy is largely still getting a free pass by the corporate media and the country club Republicans.  It is hard to beat a hero and it time to start letting America know that Rudy is not a hero, despite the B.S he and a lot of people are pushing.  

by dpANDREWS 2007-06-11 09:11AM | 0 recs
Another Giuliani &amp; Clinton New York Primary

and it will have zero impact on the outcome. Who cares.

by mdiogu 2007-06-11 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Another

Wrong.  Florida is one of the five early states.  The primary is on the same day as South Carolina.  And, it has BY FAR the most delegates of any early state.

by georgep 2007-06-11 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Another

South Carolina is going to change the date of it's primary, as is IA and NH. All will be moving up their dates.

by BDM 2007-06-11 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Florida poll:

BDM is correct...No way in hell South Carolina will not move up which could in turn, get Iowa and NH to move up their date to december.

I also agree that all those Florida polls are mainly "name recognition"...Obama and Edwards are concentrating on Iowa and NH and aren't paying that much attention to FL.

Everyone in Florida knows who Hillary is because she probably has a 100% name i.s..Obama and edwards are a bit different...Now, im sure they've heard Obama and Edwards name, but probably not as much as they would like to make a firm decision to support them.

I expect Hillary and the Clinton-brand TO INFLATE HER POLLING NUMBER IN SUCH A LARGE STATE LIKE FLORIDA

by JaeHood 2007-06-11 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Florida poll:

Obama and Edwards have very high name recognition as well.  We are not dealing with Dodd or Kucinich here.  Their extremely low showing in this state is of no concern to their fans?   That is great news, IMO.  I believe that the campaigns are not as pollyannish, but I could be wrong.  They may, just like their "fans," believe that 11% polls in mid June are nothing to be worried about.    LOL.

by georgep 2007-06-11 10:59AM | 0 recs
question for FL residents

Roughly speaking, what percentage of Dem primary voters are likely to come from south FL, and what percentage from central FL, and what percentage from north FL?

by desmoinesdem 2007-06-11 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: question for FL residents

North Florida/the panhandle is the least populated region.  I would estimate about 10% of the votes to come from there.  Central Florida, which encompasses the Tampa Bay area and Orlando is roughly at 35%, then you have the Miami-Dade area with roughly another 35%.  The rest is spread out amongst Southwest Florida - Fort Myers, Naples -  and Northeast Florida -Jacksonville, Saint Augustine.  

by georgep 2007-06-11 01:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Zogby Florida poll:

If it's name recognition and Edwards polls at 11% after running for Vice-President in the last election, he must not have made much of an impression.

I think Hillary is right about not saying she "was wrong" about her Iraq vote.  People might admire someone for saying they are wrong, but I don't think they want to vote on someone for President who admits something like that.  Yes she is getting bashed for not doing it, but she will be even more bashed if she does- and people who might support her otherwise would think twice about voting for her.  In the 2000 election debates, Gore made a big goof making up a story about medicine for seniors and was caught on it and the next debate, he apologized.  I thought that was mistake- people don't want to hear their candidates apologize and admit making mistakes.  They might admire them for it- but they won't vote on them.

Hillary is the front-runner so she obviously is doing well without having to say she was "wrong" and she should continue that.

by reasonwarrior 2007-06-11 02:24PM | 0 recs

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