Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton 35%, Obama 21%, Gore 18%, Edwards 9%

The poll

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?Rele aseID=1075

June 13, 2007 - Top Dems Catch Giuliani In '08 Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Thompson Ties Mccain Among Republicans

Clinton leads among Democrats with 35 percent, followed by Obama with 21 percent, Gore with 18 percent and 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards with 9 percent.

The trendlines

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?Rele aseID=1055

April 2007

Biden                    2%      3%      1%
Clark                    -       1       -
Clinton                 32      20      43
Dodd                     1       1       -
Edwards                 12      14       9
Gore                    14      15      14
Gravel                   -       -       -
Kucinich                 2       4       -
Obama                   18      19      18
Richardson               3       5       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       -       -
DK/NA                   15      17      14

                       May     Feb

Biden                    2       1
Clark                    -       2
Clinton                 32      38
Dodd                     1       -
Edwards                 12       6
Gore                    14      11
Gravel                   -      na
Kucinich                 2       1
Obama                   18      23
Richardson               3       2
Vilsack                 na       -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       1
DK/NA                   15      13

Head to head matchups between Democratic and Republican contenders

First, a caveat.  Edwards is not included in this head-to-head survey.  We have seen this with every other national poll, which have basically stopped testing Edwards' head-to-head numbers.  The reason seems simple.  His polls have gone way down and the pollsters probably don't find that his overall poll numbers warrant a head-to-head survey.   Apparently, the thinking is that Edwards may be about to fall out of the top-tier and has other things to worry about than how he matches up against Giuliani, McCain, etc.

The findings:

The top three Democratic presidential contenders all have caught up with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, the Republican leader: New York Sen. Hillary Clinton gets 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent; Illinois Sen. Barack Obama ties Giuliani 42 - 42 percent and former Vice President Al Gore gets 45 percent to Giuliani's 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Giuliani, leading in national and statewide polls by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pe-ack) University for several months, had a 49 - 40 percent lead over Clinton in a May 3 national poll, where he also topped Gore 48 - 41 percent and Obama 44 - 41 percent.

In other presidential matchups:  
Clinton gets 44 percent to McCain's 42 percent, while Obama edges McCain 43 - 41 percent and Gore tops McCain 44 - 41 percent.
Clinton tops Thompson 46 - 39 percent, as Obama beats Thompson 46 - 34 percent and Gore beats Thompson 49 - 37 percent.


American voters give Giuliani a 51 - 27 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other contenders are:  
47 - 45 percent for Clinton;
50 - 40 percent for Gore;
45 - 28 percent for McCain;
48 - 21 percent for Obama;
41 - 28 percent for Edwards;
For Thompson, 57 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
For Romney, 60 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Quinnipiac's analysis

"It's still early, but Sen. Hillary Clinton just keeps rolling along. Either something - like Iowa - will dislodge her or else she's the nominee. Should we start asking about vice-presidents?

"If someone slips, the non-candidates, or not-yet candidates - Sen. Fred Thompson for the Republicans, Vice President Gore for the Democrats - are hanging in there."

My analysis

Clinton just keeps rolling along...  :-)  

The polls are pretty stable, except that Edwards is showing once again very badly in yet another national poll.  The 9% he gets here continues a string of very bad national polls for him over the last 2 weeks.  

As for electability, the findings here are that there is no difference between Clinton and Obama when it comes to matching up against GOP contenders.  All Democrats have caught up with Giuliani and McCain in this survey, which is great news for us all.  

Clinton has turned around her previous negative numbers into a positive showing, a turnaround of 5% in favorables/unfavorables numbers over the last survey.  The debates seem to be helping her chip away at some of the negatives (most undeserved) she started with.   She still has more work to do when it comes to keeping an eye on the general election, but she already is beating Giuliani as it is, and his positives are the highest of all candidates at this point.

The Republican contenders

In a Republican primary, Giuliani leads with 27 percent, unchanged from May 3. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson who has 15 percent, followed by Arizona Sen. John McCain, down from 19 percent to 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 10 percent.

Bush's popularity

American voters disapprove 65 - 28 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest score ever in a Quinnipiac University national poll.

"It will be interesting to see how low President Bush's numbers can drop," Carroll said.

Poll methodology

From June 5 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,711 American voters with a margin of error of +- 2.4 percent, including 663 Republicans with a margin of error of +- 3.8 percent, and 789 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

Tags: Al Gore, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards (all tags)




Edwards' campaign is collapsing. The so-called elect ability myth is debunked in this poll. History shows people love winners, as long as Clinton is winning and shows the commander in chief quality, there's no doubt in my mind, she is the most elect able democratic candidate.

The favorability factor  this early in the race is hugely overestimated. Al Gore had a net deficit in favourable rating only a few months ago, and he is now the MOST likable candidate. This just proves how fluid this sort of stuff is.

by carolinezhang 2007-06-13 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: thoughts

"Electability" is not debunked in this poll. Hillary is still doing badly among non-Democrats, but low info Dems don't know this yet as was evident from polls last week.
Why do you think Kucinich and Gravel are doing badly despite their strong stances on Iraq and other issues? Hint: electability.

Edwards drop might be connected with electability too, if Dem voters (rightly IMO) are afraid that his intellectual "WOT=bumber sticker" thesis - true as it might be - won't be accepted by the general fearful public.

by Populism2008 2007-06-13 08:06AM | 0 recs
Re: thoughts

What are you talking about?  Clinton beats Giuliani amongst the entire sample group here.  That includes Democrats AND Republicans.   She has quite obviously turned around her previous head-to-head polling, where she trailed Giuliani in this poll by a full 9%.  This poll represents a 10% turnaround in her direct head-to-head matchup with Giuliani, and she fares marginally better than Obama here.    

by georgep 2007-06-13 08:36AM | 0 recs
Re: exactly

this "war on terror" being just a bumper sticker, was a huge gamble for Edwards...The public strongly believe that the war on terror is real and they are terroricst out there plotting to kill americans, and Edwards telling folks that it's not real, is not going to help him.

Once you start sounding like kucinich, expect to get the same kind of numbers he's getting.

by JaeHood 2007-06-13 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: exactly

The Edwards base has been among older, conservative, white males which would probably be the demographic group that would react the most to his bumper sticker statement. I think Clinton and Obama have articulated their positions well on that while Edwards handled it poorly and we are starting to see the results of that. One major difference between the Clinton campaign and to some extent the Obama campaign and the campaign of Edwards is that when statements start to get play on Drudge, Fox, etc. you see the Clinton and/or Obama team get to work and make certain clarifications are done. Unfortunately with the Edwards campaign negative publicity just seems to sit there and grow with no immediate followup as was the case with the blogger controversy, the house controversy, the haircuts, the fees of $55,000 for making speeches about poverty, the hedge fund controversy,  etc. As a result the Edwards campaign has stayed off track more often than not while Clinton and Obama run much better campaigns.

by robliberal 2007-06-13 10:08AM | 0 recs
Re: exactly

Re: Campaigns.  I have to agree.  Edwards may not be the most exciting candidate, and he sure does come across a bit too polished for many, all areas he can work on, but the biggest problem has been the campaign, which has made one mistake after another.  I am not even surprised that Edwards fired nobody over the "haircut mistake," although no accountant worth their salt would have committed a mistake like that, a mistake that has hurt Edwards tremendously.  

by georgep 2007-06-13 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: thoughts

I disagree.  All campaigns go through the hi's/low's.  Edwards need to hire a good PR person, as do Obama.  But I will sit back on Obama.  He has a way of sneaking stuff up on you.  See how Clinton is trying to de-bunk Obama, NOW, about how much money he might raise?  And throwing out all these press releases?  Bracing folks that he may again, outraise her in funds.  No, as long as you have money, you can compete.  Period.  It is up the candidate to get the solid message across.

by icebergslim 2007-06-13 09:46AM | 0 recs


There is an American research poll also coming out, can you write it?



by carolinezhang 2007-06-13 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: georgep,

I'll add it in this diary.  Thanks for pointing it out, Caroline.

by georgep 2007-06-13 07:47AM | 0 recs
it's another version of Clinton inevitability

looked at the diary list from the Clinton team, that la times general election matchups don't look like something they want to talk about.

by nevadadem 2007-06-13 07:42AM | 0 recs
Re: it's another version of Clinton inevitability

So, am I assume that the head-to-heads general election matchups of THIS poll is something YOU don't want to talk about?    Why is that?    

by georgep 2007-06-13 07:44AM | 0 recs
ARG poll out today

Also out today, the latest ARG national poll, with some interesting findings:

The poll


As of today, Clinton is at 39%, Obama is at 19%, Edwards is at 13%.  Gore was not included in this poll.  


National Primary  
Democrats Mar 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007 Jun 2007

Biden 1% 2% 3% 3%
Clark 1% 1% 1% 2%
Clinton 34% 36% 39% 39%
Dodd 1% 1% 2% 1%
Edwards 15% 19% 19% 13%
Gravel - - - 1%
Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 1%
Obama 31% 24% 22% 19%
Richardson 2% 2% 2% 5%
Undecided 14% 14% 11% 16%

ARG's analysis

Hillary Clinton's support is unchanged from May. Support for Barack Obama has dropped 12 percentage points from March.

Hillary Clinton continues to lead among women. In May, 47% of women said they would vote for Clinton. Barack Obama leads among independents saying they will definitely vote in a Democratic primary or participate in a Democratic caucus.

My analysis

As mentioned by ARG, Clinton continues her strong showing.  Her poll number is unchanged at 39%.  However, Obama has dropped another 3% in this poll from last month, and, as mentioned above, Obama has lost a full 12% in this poll from March.  Edwards continues his downward slide.  His 13% (this poll does not include Gore) is the lowest he has polled in the ARG polling universe.   It represents a drop of a full 6% from last month's survey.    The 20% margin between Clinton and Obama is the highest margin between the two contenders ever in this monthly poll.  

The GOP contenders

Guliani 24%,  McCain 20%, Fred Thompson 15%, Gingrich 12%, Romney 10%.

Rudy Giuliani continues to lead among Republicans, but he has lost 10 percentage points in support since March.

Rudy Giuliani leads among Republicans and women likely to vote in a Republican primary or participate in a Republican caucus while John McCain leads among independents and men.

Poll methodology

The following results are based on nationwide samples of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 600 likely Republican primary voters (those saying they will definitely vote in a primary or participate in a caucus in 2008) conducted June 9-12, 2007. The theoretical margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time.

by georgep 2007-06-13 07:57AM | 0 recs
Re: ARG poll out today


by carolinezhang 2007-06-13 08:00AM | 0 recs
So Obama is the candidate

with the highest favorability of them all. Not surprising IMO.

by Populism2008 2007-06-13 08:02AM | 0 recs
Re: So Obama is the candidate

But of course that has nothing to do with votes. Enjoy.

by bowiegeek 2007-06-13 03:43PM | 0 recs
Go Hillary!

As a Clinton supporter, this is incredibly exciting.  It's nice to see something positive instead of something trying to tear her apart.  Clinton will make a great President and I for her 100%.

by reasonwarrior 2007-06-13 08:48PM | 0 recs


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