Not a chance in hell at a primary challenge... the one fact that you missed is that Obama's popularity within the party remains high. High enough that a primary challenger would fail. Hillary is the ONLY one who could do it, and if she did and failed, it would destroy any chance she has in 2016.
These polls are ridiculously stupid. They mean nothing. 1) They are too far out. If polls this far out were accurate, then we might have President Guilliani or Lieberman. 2) No one is campaigning... Let's see where these numbers are in a full blown campaign... none of the GOP is being attacked or hammered on. Palin would be toast, Newt would be toast. Romney is interesting, but as he flip flops his way around, as prejudice against his mormonism happens (and don't think that there won't be at least 1-2% of traditional GOP voters who stay at home and won't vote for a mormon) and as hopefully tales such as the dog story are repeated. Huckabee still worries me, but the prison thing should kill him in a primary.
I'm just not sure why the hell anyone cares. If these were ever a true indicator of performance, then BilL Clinton would have been crushed in 1996 and W would have won by a landslide and I believe the first bush would have been a shoe in as well.
Polls this early are like jello wrestling at a strip club... fodder for idiots to slather over until the real show begins.
No way... Rick Perry has a terrible record in Texas, barely over 50% approval and did not have 50% of the hypothetical matchup in the last poll I could find; his re-election is not a foregone conclusion. Don't forget they have him on film saying Texas should secede from the Union which will not play well with independents, IMHO. He'd be beaten like a drum.
If he does, he hasn't shown any sign of it. I mean if he had that instinct he would have finished off Hillary early in the cycle. It's not a bad thing, it's just something I've seen no sign of with him. Sometimes its very handy.
With the exception of a very brief window right after the GOP convention, would you call 2008 that much of a horse race? I mean the Democratic primary was far more competitive (and productive) than the general, IMHO. Once the first debate happened, Obama built a comfortable lead and then the Palin interviews and Debate 2 (wandering John) put it in the bag. Sure it wasn't Reagan v Mondale or Johnson v Goldwater, but it was still a foregone conclusion (except for our paranoia they'd find a way to fix the election like 2000).
If Obama had more of a killer instinct I could see an 2012 campaign against Romney being over very quickly. SO much to paint this guy with... and god would I love to see a commercial about his bad judgement such as tying the Family dog to the car carrier and driving. You paint Romney as a flip flopper with bad judgment when he actually settles on a side.
I hope the Dems have the balls to for this as an issue on the GOP. Demand they denounce the tea party movements tactics of threats and extortion. Get the GOP to either side with the TEABAGS or to Denounce them and piss them off enough to run an third party candidate.
Frumin was a Democratic appointment before he was removed in 1995 for Dove. Frumin was reappointed in 2001 by Lott. He's a REALLY smart guy and does his job well. I doubt he plays the politics one way or another and instead answers to the best of his opinion.
Why wait a year? Filibuster reform. I'm not sure you will be able to attract the one or two GOPers needed to get this to pass cloture... assuming Lieberman is a no. If we can, then hell yes. But reality may not be with us.
So it's more of a perception issue than an actual issue. Well Obama is a hell of a salesman, if anyone can change some minds, I'm betting he can. Besides, the penalties are small to start, and I would be 99% of people would never be affected by the mandate.
And I don't see it as a bad thing to create 16 to 18,000 new jobs.
Right... but the mandate is all about the pre-existing conditions. It won't lower the costs, it will maintain the costs. Without it, if people could get insurance without ever paying into the pot then they would buy it when they are sick and cancel when they are healthy. In that case, premiums would sky rocket.
The mandate is a necessary evil... funny I don't see the GOP railing about car insurance mandates... mandated insurance through for-profit companies. But I agree that passing Grayson will neutralize any Mandate arguments and will be immensely popular.