• I'd guess that a lot of first time voters (which there appear to be in this election) aren't affiliated with either party, unless they're required to register as such.  

  • comment on a post Obama's VP over 6 years ago

    While he's proven himself a less than wonderful politician, I still think Wes Clark matches up well with Obama's needs.  

  • It's entirely conceivable that the vast majorities of both candidates' supporters are impassioned, but respectful advocates.  But, as with any issue, there's a very vocal minority that defies this approach.

    It's a shame, really.  I don't think it would have been as bad had this been a shorter campaign, but with two sides now so thoroughly committed to their candidates, it's become bitter in places.

  • Nice analysis.  I'd say these results pretty effectively confirm the null, though it would be nice if there were more observations.  Have you looked into the effects of (stab in the dark, but a reasonable one) DC and Arkansas as overly influential outliers?

    So few primaries carry past Super Tuesday (with any importance, that is) that this might be difficult to apply more generally.

  • I don't expect her to claim she's "lost" at this time, but if things go poorly for her on March 4th, then she'll have the choice of fighting tooth and nail, even if it brings down the nominee, or doing what's right for the party, and stepping aside.  

    While some seem to think it best that she fight to the point of scorched earth, I think her closing moment last night showed that she wouldn't do that (at least, I hope that's what it showed).

  • comment on a post We Clintonites should give credit where it is due over 6 years ago

    He has improved dramatically in the debates.  As an Obama supporter, I'd like him to do one thing better.

    He relies a bit too much on his stump speech in the debates, and it makes his answers predictable.  Clinton knew that JFK quote was coming, and she was ready to trap him with another JFK quote.  Fortunately for him, this was in an area (negotiation w/ Cuba) where he had expanded his position such that he addressed the concerns Clinton's quote raised before she had a chance to raise them.  But, it highlights an important weakness in his debate strategy.    

  • on a comment on Texas and the Debate over 6 years ago

    As an Obama supporter, I actually thought it was a good line, as far as getting those one line sound bites goes.  But Obama did a good job of jumping in immediately, taking her out of her rhythm to deliver that criticism, and then the booing began.  

    She was clearly looking for a line like his "Hillary, I'm looking forward to you advising me, too" line, which got a lot of play and made him look confident.  

    Also, as an inauthentic moment, I'm not sure it would really play that way in the minds of independent voters.  While she's loved among Dems, the general perception of her is closer to what we saw in that line than it is to her humanizing closing answer.  Had she run a campaign with more of those humanizing moments, she could have likely raised her positives or decreased her negatives...both of which she really needed to do in this campaign.

    But, I think her advisers wanted her to appear "tough," to play up that "ready on day one," potential commander in chief message, so this approach was largely scrapped.  

  • comment on a post Senate & House Challenger News Round-up over 6 years ago

    ...to be Gilmore, and lose two elections in the same year?  

  • comment on a post Whatever over 6 years ago

    This is laughable.  The Clinton supporters are focusing on one of three or four things that her final statement took from former Bill Clinton and John Edwards speeches.  Conveniently, you focus on the part that is most likely a normal phrase.  

    It's so dishonest, that I'm actually laughing.  Do you actually believe that her taking points from others' speeches after lambasting Obama for plagiarism is not hypocritical?  And they say Obama supporters are delusional...  

    This whole plagiarism issue is pointless to begin with, and I wish they'd focus on substantive issues, instead.      

  • comment on a post I am a peacenik over 6 years ago

    Well said.  I hope that my generation, which grew up with Vietnam and Watergate as distant memories, has learned a grave lesson.  I certainly know that I have.

  • comment on a post Post-Debate, MyDD BTR Thread over 6 years ago

    Great debate!  A few thoughts:

    1.) The best moment of the night was watching two candidates repeatedly silence the moderators to have a real debate about health care.  She probably won in terms of appealing to the base, but I think he won in that his perceived weakness is his "lack of substance."  By hammering away on health care policy, he proved that weakness wrong.

    2.) So much for the full blown attack the media were predicting.

    3.) She's fortunate in that her best moment was the final moment, and that any audience members cheering both candidates at the end of the debate appeared to be cheering her with a standing-O.  If she gets any bump out of this, it's due to the timing of her final moment (which was a great moment, and that's coming from an Obama supporter) more than anything else.

    4.) It was generally a tie, though she might have won on a "buzzer-beater," so to speak.  Of course, if this idea catches on, that she lifted those lines from Bill's and John Edwards's prior words, then she'll look very hypocritical.  

    5.) If there's one thing I left this debate believing, it's that both of these candidates are better, by a long shot, than McCain.  Shame on those who'd rather punish the other candidate, even if it leads to a McCain Presidency.

  • Hmm...did Hillary just say "hoodwinked" in tonight's debate?  

    So, clarify this for me...is she plagiarising Barack Obama or Spike Lee?

  • on a comment on Oh, "Really?" over 6 years ago

    Just realized I misread (I think) the comment to which I was replying.  

    "Because she is not 'our own' to so many on this board.  She is the enemy.  For some poor people, there can only be one 'our own' and anyone or anything that stands in the way of their one and only must be eliminated by whatever means necessary."

    My bad...thought you were implying that this is YOUR belief.  So...strike the "for you" out of my original comment.

  • Nice vid.  But it doesn't explain why it would be wrong to reference one's friends, popular culture, or themes that have been repeated throughout history.  

    "OH MY GOD!  Obama isn't the first person to ever use 'hope' as a theme!  I'm SHOCKED AND APPALLED!"

    Get a grip.

  • Haha!  This is so true.  When Obama isn't on the ballot, she just mops the floor with him.  Now, if only we can convince McCain to stay off the November ballot...


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