Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

To all Obama supporters
For the past few days I have been hearing how Hawaii could possibly go for Clinton for the following reasons: Senator Inouye has endorsed Clinton, therefore the Hawaii Democratic machine favors Clinton. Clinton surrogate Chelsea has hit the state.
Well both factors are negated by the fact that Representative Neil Abercrombie (one of the two representatives Hawaii has, and the one that represents the entire city on Honolulu)  endorsed Obama and is much more out spoken about his endorsement than Inouye is about his. And Obama has a bigger surrogate, his half sitter, who has lived and worked in Hawaii her entire life, and has been working for Obama in Hawaii ever since he started his presidential campaign.
In no shape or form does Hawaii look good for Clinton, and the following articles would seem to give force to that opinion.

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=/20080210/NEWS05/802 100359/1001/NEWS05
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=200880213045
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/p bcs.dll/article?AID=2008802140354

But I am not saying focus all of your attention onto Wisconsin, just most of it.
Wisconsin is 4 times the prize that Hawaii is, so at best I can see Obama walking away from Hawaii with 15 delegates, but in Wisconsin he could obtain as many as 55 or 60 delegates depending on how strongly he wins in Wisconsin. Seeing how Texas will either be a delegate tie for Obama, or possibly even a popular victory for him, Wisconsin is the state that could put him over the top in the long run.
But all means work Hawaii, but lets make Wisconsin the final nail in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign grave.
Hillary Clinton will do a great job for us in the Senate for the next 20 to 30 years (or longer), will keep President Obama on the straight and narrow in regards to Universal Health Care, and I have no doubt that within the next 20 years we will have a woman president (my hopes are on McCaskill in 2016). Hillary Clinton doesn't have to be the first woman president, and we would be better served by a woman president that is not nearly as polarizing and divisive as Hillary Clinton is.

Tags: Hawaii, obama, Wisconsin (all tags)



Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

Not a single one of those articles bears out, in any shape or form, that Hawaii is bad for Clinton.

by americanincanada 2008-02-15 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

Very wishful thinking on your part. Both Hawaii and Wisconsin are very much in play for Clinton, as most all the polls are showing. My bet is that she will win Wisconsin, based on its 89 percent white voters, most of which are core-base Democrats. Also a big union state that favors In Hawaii most voters are of Asian Decent, this would favor Clinton, as Asian-Americans have been very supportive of her.

by steve468 2008-02-15 01:21PM | 0 recs
The mythical Asian vote

Another person falls for the idiotic myth of the Asian voter! Please see my analysis here.

There is no "Asian vote"!

by X Stryker 2008-02-15 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: The mythical Asian vote

Your analysis throws out opinions with no data to back it up.  You even state that in your article.  Great reporting!  You are wrong, there is an asian vote.  Just as there is Black vote, a Jewish vote, a hispanic vote, etc.  This doesn't mean that all these groups vote as one block, but you can measure trends within groups.

by oc 2008-02-15 05:50PM | 0 recs
Asian vote
If you don't know that there are huge difference between the Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino, and Indian communities, then you obvious know absolutely nothing about world cultures and world history.
However, In Hawaii the vote to get is the inter-racial vote, as nearly half the people here have very diverse heritages or are in mixed racial marriages.
Which candidate do you think has a better chance of winning the inter-racial vote? The White girl, or the local boy with an African father and a lily white mother and grandparents?
by fetboy 2008-02-15 10:44PM | 0 recs
Re: The mythical Asian vote

By the way, I'm Jewish and I can state that the Jewish vote votes democrat.  The fact that I have a republican uncle (rush style) doesn't disprove that the Jewish vote goes democrat.

by oc 2008-02-15 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

If Hillary wins Wisconsin and Hawaii, that'd be huge. If she followed it with 10pt+ wins in Ohio and Texas then she'd be right back in the hunt.

I think she'll lose both however.

by liberalj 2008-02-15 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

I see Hillary winning Wisconsin by 5 points, losing Hawaii by a similar amount, probably more, but winning Ohio by 15 to 20 points, and winning Texas by 10 points. I also see her winning Rhode Island by over 10 points on March 4th, while losing Vermont by a few points that day. For Hillary, the March 4th mini super Tuesday will be a big day, putting her squarely back in the race, and pointing her towards the big Pennsylvania primary on April 22 with great momentum. For Obama, March 4th will be a day when he comes to the realization that he almost did it. So Obama fans, enjoy it while you can........

by pollbuster 2008-02-15 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

I don't understand Obama supporters use of the rightwing talking point that Hillary is "polarizing and divisive".  Is it supposed to scare democrats?  Personally, as a democrat, I want Hillary to win, but if Obama wins and becomes president he better be polarizing and divisive.  I don't want a 'let's compromise with the insane republicans who never compromise' democratic president.  I want someone who kicks ass and takes names.  If the crazy side of the republican party feels Hillary is 'polarizing and divisive' then she's doing her job!

by oc 2008-02-15 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

If Obama had been the target of constant attacks and outrageous smears for over a decade he'd be seen as 'polarizing' too.

The reason he's not, is because he's a fresh face who talks about change. When you talk in vague terms about hope and change, anyone can support you because you can be all things to all people.

Hillary can't do this, she has a record. She has taken strong policy positions, and she talks about them.

Obama really will be a miracle worker if he can unite Republicans, Democrats and Independents around getting out of Iraq, abolishing the Bush tax cuts, respecting a woman's right to choose and working towards universal healthcare.

Hillary realises that none of those things will get done without a fight, i'm not sure Obama does.

by liberalj 2008-02-15 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Weighing Hawaii and Wisconsin.

Since the republicans basically live for war, and tax cuts, and not allowing people choices, and limiting health care in a way that the big insurance companies, HMO's and big drug companies make windfall profits, not even God, himself or herself, could unite the republicans around these issues in what we would see as a positive manner. If any Obama supporter really thinks that Obama is going to get the likes of Mitch McConnell to unite with all of us, they just do not understand the nature of the problem. When you don't understand the nature of the problem, you will not do very well when the battle with the republicans begins. If you are not ready to fight the republicans head on, you will get 8 more years of a republican administration, and don't expect McCain to be better than Bush. He has already told us he wouldn't mind America continuing this war for 100 years. Does that sound like a man who is ready to compromise? Maybe if he's nice we could get him down to 50 years. That's what the republicans consider a compromise.

by pollbuster 2008-02-15 03:38PM | 0 recs


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