Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

Do you think the media will run with this story even though it doesn't meet with their preconceived notions.

In another nail in the coffin of the "Hispanics won't vote for Obama" line of thought, Gallup found that Hispanics not only are behind Obama -- but at a pretty high rate.

While Hispanics generally preferred Hillary Clinton to Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, a solid majority of Hispanics have consistently backed Obama against McCain in general-election trial heats. Obama has led McCain by about a 2-to-1 margin since Gallup began tracking general-election voting preferences in early March.
The timing on the polling was between March and June -- Clinton was still campaigning much of the time so a unity bounce with Hispanics will probably be dampened.

But it also shows something that many of us knew all along -- that Hispanics were not voting against Obama, but they were actually voting for Clinton.

But of course us Hispanics, like any group of people, are not a monolithic voting bloc.

Perhaps the only exceptions to this general pattern come among the minority of Hispanic voters who identify themselves as Republicans (18%) or who say they have conservative political views (36%). McCain leads Obama among Hispanic Republicans, and is about even with him among Hispanic conservatives.

The numbers are pretty impressive when put in another context -- his support is ahead of that of John Kerry's results in 2004. The Hispanic votes went to Kerry by a 59 to 40 margin against Bush.  McCain would need to pick up all the undecided voters to reach this same margin.

So can we get rid of the "Hispanics won't vote for Obama" memo?

Tags: Barack Obama, Hispanics (all tags)



Re: Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

I won't hold my breath for the media to actually notice that most Hispanics don't dislike blacks and will vote for a black man.

by fbihop 2008-07-02 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

the hispanics didn't go to Kerry 59-40. They went to him 53-44, which is why he lost.

by Lakrosse 2008-07-02 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

But the Hispanic vote would not have made a difference in two of the states that Kerry narrowly lost such as Iowa and Ohio; winning by a larger margin than 53-44 only would have helped him in New Mexico, which would not have put him over the top anyway.

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-02 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

he woulda won the popular vote, which at least woulda put a HUGE dent into Bush's legitimacy. If he had been the first President to win two terms without winning the popular vote, he'd be even a lamer duck, and history would hammer him worse.

by Lakrosse 2008-07-02 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Yes, Hispanics do support Obama

"Legitimacy" and $4.00 will get a grande Starbucks latte.

Do you really think that Bush would change his governing philosophy one iota (offer more compromise or centrist positions)?  Do you think he has any sense of shame or honesty?

by Can I Haz Moar Snark 2008-07-02 03:52PM | 0 recs


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