• comment on a post Fallout over 3 years ago

    GOP +22 seats in state House, one short of 2/3 majority and the Dem leads in the undecided district by 15 votes.  Ugly.

  • comment on a post Fallout over 3 years ago

    GOP +22 seats in state House, one short of 2/3 majority and the Dem leads in the undecided district by 15 votes.  Ugly.

  • on a comment on Crash and Burn Day for Dems over 3 years ago

    Also, Prop 19 will fail.  Even SUSA's cellphone friendly final poll had it losing 43-53.  As for the House, I have Oberstar, Skelton, Pingree and Loretta Sanchez losing.

  • comment on a post Crash and Burn Day for Dems over 3 years ago

    Today dawned gray and blustery in North Texas.  Driving to work, I easily came up with a 57-seat pickup for the GOP, then came up with 4-5 more.  Here in Texas, Rick Perry has transformed himself from an ethically challenged with big budget deficit governor to a Tea Party champion and presidential candidate and will win by 9-10%.  They're running against Obama even in state House races.  Texas House goes from 77 Rs to 84 Rs.

    Senate 51-49 (Murray hangs on in a recount).  Governors 32-18-1 GOP.  The collapse of Malloy in CT is staggering.

  • comment on a post Gallup: 60 - 80 seats over 3 years ago

    I think it's around 60, with some upside.  Nate is too optimistic with his 53-54 seat forecast. 

    50 or 51 Dems in the Senate, not sure about Patty Murray.  Divergent polling on WA-Sen makes it a real tossup.

    Can a primary challenge to Obama unite the left with at least part of the center?  If so, it has a real chance.

  • comment on a post Recovery for Some over 3 years ago

    ....could be the GOP nominee in 2012.  He'll bring enough of the Tea Party along to keep Palin out of the GOP nomination.

    Never mind his numerous ethical lapses and scandals.  Never mind Texas' $25 billion budget deficit.  The "hair" wins.

  • comment on a post Sabato's Crystal Ball has final call over 3 years ago

    Tossups are FL, OR, VT and CT.

    Others:

    CA--Hard to see Brown losing this, bu he may not close well.

    IL--Quinn may outpoll Giannoulis, even though both will lose.
    MN--Emmer one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle.
    ME--Libby Mitchell one of the worst candidates.  Ever.
    TX--Bill White never caught on.  He was on defense far too often, and spent too much time campaigning in rural East and West Texas, and not enough in the DFW/San Antonio corridor and South Texas.

    So it looks like -8 in the Governors' races, a terrible result.

  • comment on a post Obama's re-elect a solid 39% over 3 years ago

    Is that the 9th seat?  I have it at 51 seats--thought the early voting numbers are somewhat disappointing for her.

    The only issue for the House is whether the Dems get to 200.  Close call, but I'm on the under (barely).

     

  • comment on a post Senate Outlook a week out over 3 years ago

    I say 51, as CO-Sen is tied, but the one internal that's bad for Bennet is the 45-11 GOP split on the undecideds.  Actually Joe Manchin could also be a key to who runs the Senate.  I'm coming to the conclusion that Obama is unreelectable in 2012 unless employment dramatically improves.  That's going to be a big drag on the Dems, since they have several tough seats to defend (MT, VA, MO, perhaps OH and MI).

    I actually think Obama and the Democrats would have been better off without the stimulus and 11% unemployment.  Obama has governed like a centrist, but he's would as "too liberal" anyway.

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Obama really thought HCR was the key to fixing the economy.  But he never really got it on jobs. 

    It's fascinating, because even in state House races, they're running against Obama and Pelosi.  I guess holding all 29 statewide offices plus the legislature isn't enough in Texas, and the GOP will gain seats in the state House, and lots of legislative seats across the country.  That's going to keep the Dems in the minority for a long time.

     

     

  • on a comment on Fault to the Core over 3 years ago

    Is it realistic to primay Obama from the center?  This is bad scenario for Democrats, as after the election, there will be realignment talk again, as the Midwest will be gone.

    Let's see--if no bailouts, no stimulus, no HCR reform, where would unemployment be now?  Over 10%.  That's not a way to win a midterm election, is it?  Would doing less lead to a better result?

    No, the problem is that there was no consistent message, no attempt to sell what was accomplished, and yes, the bailouts.
    Would Obama be better off attacking the deficit first? 

    As for 2012, the GOP will wise up and nominate Huckabee or Romney, or maybe Thune.  And who will lead the Democratic minority--there isn't anyone.

     

     

     

  • comment on a post Gallup points to 70 plus blowout for now over 3 years ago

    Is that the GOP will have a veto-proof majority in the House by 2012.  Is that really possible?

  • Pollster.com and TPM are using the 11% figure, not 17%.  I think that's more accurate.  No one else has it at double digits, though Ras could in the last two polls they will release.

  • comment on a post Gallup points to 70 plus blowout for now over 3 years ago

    Does one really think 50% of the voters in this midterm will be Republicans?

    I doubt it, and I think the 11% margin in the more normal likely voter model is more likely than 17%.  Still I think the margin is 7-9%, which gives the GOP 60 or so seats.

    And posts like this don't contribute to Democratic enthusiam.

     

  • comment on a post Nancy Pelosi is finished as Speaker over 3 years ago

    I still say 55-60 seats.  Rasmussen says it will be 55, which means the consensus is 47-55 right now.  Dems will get to 51 or 52 Senate seats (CA and CO up in the air, Manchin wins WV, Angle wins NV, and IL also a tossup).  Regarding Conway's ad, it does seem like a desparation heave, not some thing you would do if down by just two or three points--KY is underpolled.  Conway would be better attacking Paul on economic issues and his insensitivity to the needs of average Kentuckians.

    Pelosi did a lot as Speaker, but she blundered badly by forcing and winning a narrow vote on climate change, when even in the spring of 2009, chances for Senate passage were dimming.  And I don't think it's a good idea to have her as the face of the party, though I don't think Steny Hoyer would be a good leader.

Diaries

Advertise Blogads