Today dawned gray and blustery in North Texas. Driving to work, I easily came up with a 57-seat pickup for the GOP, then came up with 4-5 more. Here in Texas, Rick Perry has transformed himself from an ethically challenged with big budget deficit governor to a Tea Party champion and presidential candidate and will win by 9-10%. They're running against Obama even in state House races. Texas House goes from 77 Rs to 84 Rs.
Senate 51-49 (Murray hangs on in a recount). Governors 32-18-1 GOP. The collapse of Malloy in CT is staggering.
CA--Hard to see Brown losing this, bu he may not close well.
IL--Quinn may outpoll Giannoulis, even though both will lose. MN--Emmer one of the worst GOP candidates this cycle. ME--Libby Mitchell one of the worst candidates. Ever. TX--Bill White never caught on. He was on defense far too often, and spent too much time campaigning in rural East and West Texas, and not enough in the DFW/San Antonio corridor and South Texas.
So it looks like -8 in the Governors' races, a terrible result.
I say 51, as CO-Sen is tied, but the one internal that's bad for Bennet is the 45-11 GOP split on the undecideds. Actually Joe Manchin could also be a key to who runs the Senate. I'm coming to the conclusion that Obama is unreelectable in 2012 unless employment dramatically improves. That's going to be a big drag on the Dems, since they have several tough seats to defend (MT, VA, MO, perhaps OH and MI).
I actually think Obama and the Democrats would have been better off without the stimulus and 11% unemployment. Obama has governed like a centrist, but he's would as "too liberal" anyway.
Obama really thought HCR was the key to fixing the economy. But he never really got it on jobs.
It's fascinating, because even in state House races, they're running against Obama and Pelosi. I guess holding all 29 statewide offices plus the legislature isn't enough in Texas, and the GOP will gain seats in the state House, and lots of legislative seats across the country. That's going to keep the Dems in the minority for a long time.
I still say 55-60 seats. Rasmussen says it will be 55, which means the consensus is 47-55 right now. Dems will get to 51 or 52 Senate seats (CA and CO up in the air, Manchin wins WV, Angle wins NV, and IL also a tossup). Regarding Conway's ad, it does seem like a desparation heave, not some thing you would do if down by just two or three points--KY is underpolled. Conway would be better attacking Paul on economic issues and his insensitivity to the needs of average Kentuckians.
Pelosi did a lot as Speaker, but she blundered badly by forcing and winning a narrow vote on climate change, when even in the spring of 2009, chances for Senate passage were dimming. And I don't think it's a good idea to have her as the face of the party, though I don't think Steny Hoyer would be a good leader.