VA-Gov: PPP says Deeds will win primary

It's finally out.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_VA_6074983.pdf

Deeds is now up 40-26-24, with Brian Moran in third place.  So the WaPo endorsement did it.  Not the only reason but it helped.
At least it won't be McAuliffe.

So why did Jerome's guy Brian Moran failed to catch on?  He never took off outside of Northern Virginia.  Also I think he never gave a compelling reason why he should be the nominee.  Jerome may disagree, but I never saw it.  He was the "non-McAuliffe" candidate, but that was it.  Another issue that may have tripped up Moran was Gitmo.  He seemed on the defensive.  All those local endoresements didn't help either.

With Deeds, while the WaPo endorsement legitimized his candidacy in NoVa, benefitted by being from "real Virginia." Deeds had the highest favorables of the three candidates, and leads in all regions except the 757 area code.  And PPP found 50% of the likely primary electorate are moderates.  But most importantly, Deeds was considered the "outsider" in this race, even though he has been in the legislature and ran for attorney general in 2005.

McAuliffe's decline was certainly accelerated by his fibbing on how many jobs he created.  He had real credibility and ethical issues, in addition to the "carpetbagger" issue, even though he lived in the state for 20 years.  Support from Bill Clinton and the national Democratic establishment hasn't helped.

So it's now on to November, where it will be a rematch (the 2005 AG race, which McDonnell won by 233 votes) between Bob McDonnell and Deeds.  Deeds is a decided underdog this time, both in the polls and the money race, and he's going to need to really distinguish himself on the issues to have a chance.  Bob McDonnell is a savvy campaigner who hides his far-right social issue stances well.

So, take that.  

Tags: Brian moran, Creigh Deeds, PPP polls, Terry McAuliffe, va-gov (all tags)

Comments

4 Comments

Re: VA-Gov:

I posted on the poll, but will wait till after the election to post more on the race-- very exciting to the end. Lets hope a surprise is in store.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-07 07:14PM | 0 recs
Deeds: have we seen this movie before?

Yeah, nothing like going back to a loser from four years ago as an electoral strategy.

The Repubs tried this approach in the 1985 gubernatorial race, when they nominated Wyatt Durette to run against Attorney General Gerry Baliles (one of Virginia's greatest Governors.) We were all quite pleased, given that Baliles had already beaten Durette once in a statewide contest for Attorney General--just four years prior.

 

by BJJ Fighter 2009-06-08 10:09PM | 0 recs
Re: VA-Gov: PPP says Deeds will win primary

Also, this is a must-read on that '05 race to understand the dynamics at work:  http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/doh/20 05/10/attorney_genera.html

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-06-07 07:17PM | 0 recs
Fibbing on # of jobs created?

Hmmmm....kind of like making up figures on the number of jobs "saved"...an entirely new metric in the world of labor and employment statistics.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-06-08 09:56PM | 0 recs

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