Obama's poor endgame?

Before you think this is another concern troll, I pulled this
from the 538 comments from an Obama supporter:

"I think Obama has shown a lack of judgment in openly thinking about his cabinet and investing in states like Arizona, when defending Florida, Ohio and especially Pennsylvania would essentially guarantee a win. He has also been way too passive in rebutting McCain over his recent ludicrous allegations of socialism, radicalism, associations with extremists, inexperience and tax increases for the middle class, as well as the good old liberal media bias BS."

With Morning Call tracker (PA) down to 52-44, and McCain apparently winning a "Zogby" day 48-47, I'm wondering again.

I actually agree with this comment.  What's Obama doing in Iowa?  What's all this cabinet nonsense?  Win the election first!

Tags: Barack Obama, Morning Call, Zogby polls (all tags)

Comments

72 Comments

Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Remember, the Obama tam has been correct at EVERY turn.  Throughout the prmiaries, they knew what they were doing.  Only New Hampshire was a surprise.  We are up nationwide in every poll except one day in the Zogby.  Count this as an outlier.  All of the states ae moving in Obama's favor.  Should O stay in the states you mentioned to shore up a victory?  That seems good.  Then again, Plouffe and Axelrod are getting the $$$, we aren't, so I'm trusting them and not my fears.

by lqbruin 2008-10-31 08:26PM | 0 recs
It's their last ditch strategy.

Zogby has always, always been total crap, except in 2000. Like Drudge, Zogby is the stopped clock right twice a day. Obama's end game has been impeccable, as have all his campaign decisions after the convention.

by iohs2008 2008-10-31 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I disagree that Obama's team has been correct at every turn.  The primary was very close and Obama has continued to have problems with working class and older voters.  Without the economic collapse, I think Obama would be in serious trouble.  He has never won over the remaining voters he needs.  He will hopefully get enough of them to put him over the edge, but I would bet most of those votes are anti-republican not pro-Obama.

by orestes 2008-11-01 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Then why was McCain only leading for two weeks of the entire year?

by Jess81 2008-11-01 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I agree with this thread. We are going to get our ass kicked this weekend before election day.

The undecided voters are the hidden "Bradley Effect" that will destroy our chances of winning.

We are going to be crying buckets come Tuesday. The stock market did not help our cause this week either BTW.

by fransis 2008-10-31 08:28PM | 0 recs
Wow, a new Poll Panic buddy for you....

Man, either this is your new sockpuppet, or you and Fransis should have a wonderful weekend together.

Check out 4 total posts: POLL PANICS!

Esconded, I think you have a fan club!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-31 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Wow, a new Poll Panic buddy for you....

Gosh, and I was just getting ready to put up another "Polls show more troubling sign for Obama" post. They beat me to it - word for word, sans the snark!

by bushsucks 2008-10-31 10:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Only conservatives talk like that: "the stock market didn't help our cause".  I remember listening to Rush Limbaugh during the Clinton years, and how they would all pray for a recesssion or a terrorist attack.

Happy Halloween.  Nice mask.

by Jess81 2008-10-31 11:53PM | 0 recs
Oh God, Jess, thank you

for sending me back into a time warp to December 1992!  My Operation Rescue terrorist wife listened to Rush Limbaugh on the radio when I drove her to work, and good ol' Rush was on there, all through December and January, predicting SIX MONTHS before the Bill Clinton Recession would begin.  "Mark my words!" he said.  They didn't even wait for him to fucking take office before gloating over a recession that never came.

How funny, eight years later, Bush and the Republicans all said Clinton and Gore didn't deserve the credit for the good economy.  The American People deserved the credit!  It was their hard work that gave us this good economy, not some Washington politicians!

I guess nowadays the American People must be crappy and lazy.

by Dumbo 2008-11-01 04:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

You're putting your faith in a one day sample conducted on halloween?  You're a funny guy.

by interestedbystander 2008-11-01 03:48AM | 0 recs
Why are we not surprised...

I'm wondering again

Actually, you never STOPPED wondering...

It's OK, you and Rachel Maddow can chicken little all the way till 12 PM PST on the 4th.

Is it possible that McCain wins. Sure.

Is it highly unlikely?

Yup.

I won't bother to comment on the "he's not hitting back hard enough..."

That's just the angry left, who are already voting Obama.

The folks that drank the Socialism Kool-aid were already in the McCain camp 1 nano second after he chose Palin, which flipped Rush to HIGH,
which got Joe the Plumber on board...BTW, he was eventually going there anyway.

Obama, Axelrod and Plouffe fought for the middle, and it looks like it might pay off.

You "he needs to fight back" folks were wrong EVERYTIME in the debates....Obama knew the winning strategy and the polls showed it.

So, Esconded, nothing we can do for you, you just have to fret and stew and carp and worry till this thing is over.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-31 08:28PM | 0 recs
He has not won over the middle

They have moved to him out of utter fear of what another republican would do to the country.  he will win, but don't delude yourself that he has won the support of the middle.

by orestes 2008-11-01 07:22AM | 0 recs
Who the hell are you?

Check it out folks. Another BRAND NEW poster, spewing the same party line as Fransis/Stat Man...

I love the smell of sockepuppets in the morning, it smells like victory.

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 09:20AM | 0 recs
What's your problem?

Because you don't like my opinion, you're going to hurl accusations?  That doesn't contribute anything to the discussion.

by orestes 2008-11-01 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: What's your problem?

Neither do unsourced, unsupported declaratives.

And yeah, you are a troll.

by Jess81 2008-11-01 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: What's your problem?

Orestes, you, fransis, scan man ALL show up within hours ALL are posting essentially the same message...

And, as far as contributing to the discussion, we will see if YOU do that at all except concern troll.

My take is, you're more then likely to disappear on Nov 5th...

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

"Man, either this is your new sockpuppet, or you and Fransis should have a wonderful weekend together.

Check out 4 total posts: POLL PANICS!

Esconded, I think you have a fan club!"

Not worried huh??? Also, young voters are not showing up. Just heard CNN report this bit of info from south Florida.

They are too busy smoking "Rope"......dude....

by fransis 2008-10-31 08:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

"Man, either this is your new sockpuppet, or you and Fransis should have a wonderful weekend together.

Check out 4 total posts: POLL PANICS!

Esconded, I think you have a fan club!"

Not worried, huh??? Also, young people are not showing up. Just heard this on CNN a few hours ago from a reporter in south Florida.

by fransis 2008-10-31 08:41PM | 0 recs
Obama held his numbers in PA

McCain might pull in some stragglers, but Obama stays at 52.

Zogby is just crap. Total crap.

Obama is closing very strong. The infomercial was huge. He's in Iowa to make sure it's secure and because he skipped it last week. Where else should he go? Arizona?

He was going to Chicago and went to Indiana.

by elrod 2008-10-31 08:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

"Zogby is just crap. Total crap."

Until he shows us ahead....

by fransis 2008-10-31 08:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

actually zogby is crap regardless.  The reason people are biting your head off is because we are up in enough states to get over 270 with only 4 days to go and yet people like you just want to complain and scream that the sky is falling.  

If we lose we lose, but the odds are overwhelming in our favor.

by Xris 2008-10-31 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

How about instead of getting angry at somebody who points out that there might be problematic holes in the strategy, you think about the actual issue; which is that there might be problems with his end game.  And being slightly ahead in the polls days  before 11/4 means nothing given the machines, voter disenfranchisement & a GOP dominated Supreme Court; just ask Gore & Kerry.  We need to KILL it in the states that are really plausibly ours to ensure that SOME of our votes get counted, since that has PROVEN to be a problem in the last 2 elections.

I don't deal in fantasy land that if we work hard enough & enough votes come in that we are on equal footing to actually win.  That is no longer the case & hasn't been the case for several years now. And since we did NOTHING about it, we have to operate our campaigning based upon the assumption that we are coming into the election with an uncredited handicap; that being that the 2 parties no longer have an equal shot at the White House.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 06:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

First of all, there is very little analysis in this thread - there's a lot of irrational concern mixed with pop psychology mixed with armchair strategizing.  Secondly, I have no idea what some of our more concerned colleagues want - Obama is up in states that collectively yield over 310 electoral votes (per Pollster.com), and arguably is up in states that yield over 360 electoral votes (per Princeton Election Consortium).  And, Obama is campaigning all across the U.S. in the final days - he is "killing it," based on the data of where he is needed and what he needs to do to win.  I'm sorry that he is not complying with some people's demands to camp out in PA, but I trust his paid staff a lot more than some of the anonymous concerned brigade here.

These diaries are so annoying because it's clear that the diarist doesn't understand what is going on, has nothing to add to the subject, and has no interest in being proactive about it.  Instead, the person wants to instill needless drama into everyone else's lives.  

by rfahey22 2008-11-01 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

It is NOT irrational to point out that choosing to campaign more heavily in states with less of a chance of winning while leaving the states that could go either way realistically for McCain to campaign personally, is a risky strategy.  It is NOT irrational to say WTH is he doing? It is NOT irrational to say, "hey those polls show he is up a little bit but this one says the opposite?  We shouldn't ignore this in case it is accurate & we find out when it is too late." It is NOT irrational to point out the serious problems with voting in our country that we have virtually ignored (as though we have an equal shot at this & will win if we simply get more votes in the key states) which means that Obama can't just win states like OH & FL by a little; he needs to have  a referendum there so hopefully, statistically we still get the numbers we needed accounted for. THAT is NOT trolling; its just presenting a message that isn't sunshine & clouds & attempts to point out areas that need to be headed off or we will have a MAJOR problem come 11/5 & on..It's called reality.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Actually it is, since you are not presenting any data that would suggest that Obama is proceeding on the wrong path at this point in time.  Obama is campaigning in Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia over the next few days.  If he wins them all he gets to 270 without Ohio (where he will also be campaigning), Pennsylvania (where he has lead for months - there is certainly no indication that it could go "either way"), or Florida.  Of course, he is also up in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, so there is no particular reason to assume that he will lose one or more of those states, either.

You can argue all you like about "reality," but I see no analysis in your post.  And, since this diary supposedly is about Obama's strategy in the final days, it seems more than a little silly for people to voice concern with nothing other than vague conspiracy theories to back it up.

by rfahey22 2008-11-01 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

"Vague conspiracy theories" - Are you arguing that more people voted for Bush then Kerry or Gore in each election??? REALLY???  I guess the GOP hasn't co-opted ignorance, after all.  Why don't you email Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and tell him about these ridiculous "vague" conspiracy theories? @@

And btw I don't have to PROVE that campaigning in states, in the last few days, which are less likely to go your way while being less focused on those MORE likely to go your way but still winnable for the opponent (who is FOCUSING their strategy there, makes sense) It just does for Christ Sakes It's like saying I have to prove that dribbling a basketball close to the opponents basket, during the game is poor strategy. Why don't you PROVE it is good strategy or at the very LEAST consider that it just might be a bit dumb.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Yeah, how many of us believed Zogby that Kerry was ahead by 4 points on election night and lost. I have friends at the Univ. Of Texas Statistical Sampling Conference that swear  that "no way" could Zogby be that wrong--a 5 point swing in less than 24 hours--all of them say that 100 years of statistical sampling and the advent of supercomputers in the 1960's make that impossible. In other words, as they note, if Obama was getting screwed  on Tuesday, the modern Polling industry will be dead on Wednesday--no one would believe them any more--no clients would sign up. Guys like Zogby will have their lawyers  headed to Federal court to declare the vote invalid

by hddun2008 2008-10-31 09:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

It will be razor close or a upset McCain win.

Count on it....

by fransis 2008-10-31 08:52PM | 0 recs
Fransis' end game

Is the 4th, cause Fransis and his sockpuppet Stat Man will disappear Nov 5th.

Count on it....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-31 09:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

You seem to share exactly McCain's view on the question. But so far McCain has only shown that he's a lamentable campaigner.

by french imp 2008-11-01 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

If YOU count it, you can make some real bucks in intrade.com, becoming 5 times richer by betting on an upset McCain victory.

So, francis, did you put your money where your mouth is?

by Aris Katsaris2 2008-11-01 06:47AM | 0 recs
Alea iacta est

its done, because the pedal is to the metal, and we're not slowing down for anything.

by mydailydrunk 2008-11-02 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

All of us loyal Dems who have gotten our egos/enthusiasm hammmered over the last 8 years are getting the "Honeymoon Jitters" this close to the wedding day. I'm just like you but I have the math model--I don't buy what I hear on the Cable News so  I went to the old Excel spreadsheet and added it up. Here is the deal. I took all of the states that poor old John Kerry got cold. Open up the www.electoral-vote.com page and go over all the Blue States--their model shows all the states won by Kerry and all won by George Warcriminal Bush. Make your list of states down the left hand side and total electoral votes. Your total of those state electoral votes which includes Pennsylvania (the only state that McCain is contesting)should come to 244 votes. Its only 26 short of the 270 needed. Those are rock solid--I have never heard for over 6 months that any Kerry states were in play -- even Pennsylvania. So, While its not great that we are so close but still a mite short of the total of 270. You can make up your own state scenarios for getting to 270 from 244--I know that David Pouloff has done that many different ways. I encourage you to play that game and its exciting to contemplate.

by hddun2008 2008-10-31 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

"actually zogby is crap regardless.  The reason people are biting your head off is because we are up in enough states to get over 270 with only 4 days to go and yet people like you just want to complain and scream that the sky is falling.  

If we lose we lose, but the odds are overwhelming in our favor."

The odds are NOT IN OUR FAVOR IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF BLACK CANDIDATES GETTING ELECTED!

This country is still racist in many ways. It has gotten a bit better, but not enough to put an African American in the White House.

by fransis 2008-10-31 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

So fransis, are you also Statman?

Both you NEW posters showed up almost the same time, both doing that same panicpollposts...

Smells like SockPuppets to me....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-31 09:06PM | 0 recs
by fransis 2008-10-31 09:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

One poll, one day, no mention if weighting changes have taken place.

Your evidence is less than weak.

by IowaMike 2008-10-31 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

There might be a fleck of truth to this. People forget that in 2000 Bush was screwing around in the final days, even making noise about California. If he had properly lost there would have been plenty of ridicule toward Rove's overconfident tactics, but the Florida situation bailed him out.

Obama is significantly further ahead than Bush was. And there's a backbone to his lead, namely voter disgust with Bush and Co. That prevents a late collapse. I think we're throwing late money at states we'll never win, like Arizona. With this type of lead and margin for error it won't make a difference.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-10-31 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I guess investing a little in ads in Arizona may be more of symbolic interest;  it brings Obama some extra media coverage (or, rather, deprives McCain of so much media coverage), and it demoralises republican voters (if even Arizona is in play, why should I bother to vote...). There's a subliminal message that McCain is really teh loser if he can't even secure Arizona.

Even if, in case of a last minute upsurge these ads might make the difference. But that is not very likely.

by french imp 2008-11-01 05:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I will completely agree about Iowa, and I wonder what the fuck Obama is doing leaving Pennsylvania to chance. It's one thing to air ads, but time is precious right now. I know Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting, but show up on Election Day or Monday!

I totally disagree about Zogby. How many polls talking about Zogby giving Obama a widening lead started by the words "Even Zogby says..."? He's a fool and Drudge is a shameless opportunist that had to take a one-day poll with a 10% margin of error from one of the most inconsistent pollsters this year (and a completely WRONG one last time) in order to show McCain with a chance of winning.

Think about that, seriously. Drudge had to use a one-day sample of a three-day tracking poll with an extremely small sample. Can you possibly cherry-pick more than that?

by vcalzone 2008-10-31 09:31PM | 0 recs
Iowa?

Based on the word of what? A campaign guy trying to stave off a complete defeat?

Everyone else is wrong by 10+ points? Show the poll.

Do I smell troll?

by IowaMike 2008-10-31 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa?

Whoa, I didn't see ANYTHING suggesting Iowa was tied, and I damn sure don't believe it. I meant I agree that I think Obama shouldn't be spending his time in Iowa when there are so many more dangerous areas.

by vcalzone 2008-10-31 09:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa?

Sorry, misread then...

by IowaMike 2008-10-31 09:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Yeah I mean Drudge was totally all over the Ashley Todd story....oh....right.

by tired of dynasties 2008-11-01 09:07AM | 0 recs
If it walks like a troll.....

Look at posting history.

"Before you think this is another concern troll, I pulled this
from the 538 comments from an Obama supporter"

Wow, since an unknown poster at a website said it, it must be true!

And tied in Iowa? Then show the poll. Its just an attempt to rally the base, who is down.

Zogby? Great record, not. One day could be noise, or he changed some criteria for that day.

Find your bridge and go back home, troll.

by IowaMike 2008-10-31 09:34PM | 0 recs
Shocking Bulletin for our concern trolls....

The McCain campaign HAS TO SAY they are ahead or tied, or closing or our polls show different results...

Quoting Matt Drudge is about as reliable as believing Dick Cheney on Patriotism....

Do us a favor, and save the effort, it's just too pathetic to even be funny.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-31 09:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

What does it say that the McCain campaign is publicly relying on the Bradley effect to spin the polls?  What are they trying to say?- "Yeah, it may look like we're behind, but don't worry, America is racist?  Vote for us!"

Morons.  I guess they have to do what they have to do.

by Jess81 2008-10-31 11:51PM | 0 recs
LET'S ALL PANIC!!!

Yeah, the PA tracker is down to...EIGHT!

And, if you notice, it's not Obama's number that changes. He's been at 53 or 52 for a while. It's McCain's number that's increasing.

I'm a lifelong PA resident, and Barack will win my state on Tuesday by no more than 6.

As far as 538 Nate goes, why don't you see what he wrote today about the esteemed Mr. Zogby, okay?

And, everyone, please keep this in mind: Every losing campaign in the final days has to say they think they can win. Why? Because of down-ticket races. If John McCain said in public today, "Well, really, the only mystery is the size of my defeat," every GOP senator and member of Congress on the ballot would have simultaneous heart attacks.

Even through Tuesday, McCain and Palin and all their stooges will keep on saying they're going to win. It's how the game is played. Dole did it. Dukakis did it. They have no choice.

by BenderRodriguez 2008-11-01 02:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's endgame?

For my Obama victory party, I'm thinking steaks on the grill, some asparagus (also grilled), a couple of bottles of a really nice California red wine (>$10), and my wife's most excellent creme brulee.

Then, sitting around the TV with 10-12 good friends to get stinking drunk. (I have a contigency plan in case the Republicans steal it again: keep drinking until I die of alcohol poisoning. But I am not worried.)

I only wish I could invite [b]esconded[/b] to join us.

by QTG 2008-11-01 03:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Nate at 538 Do You Spook Easily?:

Judging by the response in my inbox, some of you do.

Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.

There are a couple of significant problems with this.

Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.

Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.

Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.

Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).

So go out to your Halloween parties and enjoy yourself, and we'll be back to covering the polls for you tomorrow.

by skohayes 2008-11-01 03:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Esconded's November 5 diary: "I am concerned that Obama is discussing plans to put together his cabinet.  The electoral college voters may think that he is being presumptuous and arrogant and therefore award the presidency to McCain.  Obama does not have this wrapped up."

by rfahey22 2008-11-01 04:39AM | 0 recs
Ras PA: 51-47

And McCain is returning to the state today.

by esconded 2008-11-01 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Here's how McCain wins and the odds are long.

1) Everybody thinks Obama is going to win so people who see long lines go home and don't vote. Evidence from early voting says this isn't happening now. So I don't believe it will happen on the 4th.

2) Sometime  between now and the 4th something horrific happens to give McCain and absurd boost. Again a real long shot.

If you are worried do something. GOTV.  Make some phone calls. It's easy just to got to the Obama web site and click on make calls. And most importantly go vote!

Finally no longer look at national tracking polls at this point they are beyond meaningless. Look at the state polls. As it stands now there is almost no scenario where Obama doesn't win.

from 538:

McCain's win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.

by jsfox 2008-11-01 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?
  1. The polls are wrong
  2. And most likely culprit if we lose - voter disenfranchisement, irregularity, and malfunctioning machines wind up the culprit for a third time in a row.  In both other "losses" it was voting issues - and yet I feel like we keep minimizing this possibility.  We did absolutely nothing about for 8 years, in spite of the fact that it became THE issue in both other Presidential elections
by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 09:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

If 3 is true, then Obama might be up by 20 or down by 10. Why assume the worst?

Second, if the polls are wrong, we have no idea which states need love. He should just go to the biggest state and defend. You really want to send him to CA?

by Neef 2008-11-01 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I didn't say 3 were true. I was adding to the posters list which only mentioned 2 possible reasons we could lose. # 3 would be the polls are wrong but most likely it is what I wrote in #4 which has been the problem we never dealt with these past 2 election cycles.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Go to RCP and check it out.  PA is not going to go to McSame.  It won't even be close.

A landslide that includes Arizona, Georgia, N.D., Missourri, Montana, etc. tanslates into a mandate that it would be very hard for the GOP to deny.  Either way... a 50 state strategy means 50 states.  If we're going to win Arizona in 2012 and beyond (and we really could), campaigning there now would be a very good start.

by lockewasright 2008-11-01 06:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I can tell you why--PUMA'S like yours truly are never going to vote for Obama-Zogby has him far off the mark of what Kerry or Gore got.

by handsomegent 2008-11-01 07:02AM | 0 recs
The only way Obama is going to lose this election

is through massive voter fraud and vote rigging by Republicans. I don't think Reps have the stomach to do that this time around. They don't even have the establishment behind them...

McCain is planning to return to Senate. He'll have to rekindle some of his Senate connections, given he had been pretty much absent last two years.

And Palin should be getting in touch with some damn smart defense lawyers. She'll need that help.

by louisprandtl 2008-11-01 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: The only way Obama is going to lose this elect

So you trust that the GOP grew some morals this time around?  Hello, how do you think we lost the last 2 elections? It wasn't because we didn't get the votes needed.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 07:30AM | 0 recs
No, I just don't think Republicans have the

stomach or the capability to bridge the huge voting gap through their machinations. This is not a Bush v Gore or Bush v Kerry situation with a country divided 50-50. McCain will be hardpressed to get 45% vote this time around (not to belittle McCain, because that still is 20% more support than where his party's leader President Doofus is at). According to Sam Wang, the EV metamargin is 7.92%. I don't think the combinatorial effect of Bradley effect and Republican vote rigging, fraud and suppression methods can effect more than 3-4% of the vote difference. Also remember unlike in 2000 and 2004, in battleground states like Ohio, the Republicans are not the party of power anymore.

http://election.princeton.edu/faq/

by louisprandtl 2008-11-01 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: No, I just don't think Republicans have the

Why do you think they keep pushing the "Bradley" effect meme?  To give more credibility to this. And btw - there was plenty of blatant & outrageous indicators that Gore & Kerry (the last TWO elections btw) had the EV & the popular vote - yet we pretty much got angry for day and moved on to play the game the same old way; that is campaigning as though campaigning is all that it takes.  That is true if you are the GOP - but things have changed these past 8 years & it is no longer enough.  I guess it is mute b/c the ship has sailed - we had 8 years to protest & rise up and we did nothing.  The only protests I see are aging hippies when I drive by military complexes with weird outfits containing baby dolls strapped to them & strange slogans  thinking they are making some sort of statement when all they are doing is making us look bad & ignoring any even more pervasive problem that needed a major uprising. After 2000 & 2004 every US Citizen should have gone down to their local election places & taken a baseball bat to those machines. Believe me I'm no fan of anarchy but when this shit goes on the people HAVE to rise up or we show them we just take it lying down, which is what we did & what we are doing now by scoffing at the notion or relying on the GOP's nonexistent morality to let us win this time.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 09:30AM | 0 recs
Your apprehensions are similar to that
of Ms. Jong's. It is true Republican illegal machinations are way beyond normal electioneering discourse. I'm not sure what else I can comment in this matter. If the unthinkable
event of Obama loss happens, I surely agree it will not be because he got less votes.
http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/er ica-jong-tells-italians-obama-loss-will- spark-second-american-civil-war-blood-wi ll-r
by louisprandtl 2008-11-01 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Your apprehensions are similar to that

I already agree. I mean how does the saying go "Fool me once (Gore) shame on you, fool me twice etc (Kerry) and are we going to be the fools for the THIRD time? We never dealt with the ultimate issue & keep changing our campaign strategies as though there was something wrong with our prior candidates' appeal (if they won the votes, which they did, then they weren't the problem - maybe we should pay SOME attention to the problem which says that even if more people vote for our candidate, even in the right combination of states for the EV points we still have a recent history (2 consecutive times in a row) of not taking office.  Some of it is a little late now to keep grousing about but on the other hand if this goes down again next week are we going to accept an illegitimate election AGAIN, and instead contemplate why the party doesn't appeal to America (which was the meme after the last election via the MSM when we won MORE votes!?)

by jrsygrl 2008-11-01 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

Funny that this concern troll - probably a Republican disguising as a "concerned" Democrat - does not mention that McCain's end game consists of spending the last evening before the election NOT in Pennsylvania or Florida or Virginia or North Carolina or Colorado, but in ARIZONA.  ARIZONA of all places, which should be akin to a foreign country to McCain's travel plans any way one wants to slice it.  

Concern trolling is fine, but making up your own reality while doing so isn't.  

by devilrays 2008-11-01 08:08AM | 0 recs
Poor Endgame...

Here's the problem with Esconded, Handsome gent, and the rest of our concern trolls (Fransis/Statman are just Republicans so ignore them totally...)

You folks were FRONTGAME disbelievers in Obama, you thought he would lose the primary, you thought he was toast after the Palin pick.

Sorry, if you had a track record of predicting obama/voter events, you would have some earned credibility to cash in...

Take for example Handsomegent?

Obama was going to lose the primaries..Check...

Obama was going to get crushed on Super Tuesday...Check...

Obama would be blown out in Michigan and Florida for the disenfranchiment...Check...

Hillary would win the popular vote and the supers would over turn the Convention..,.Check...

Think of him as the Bill Kristol of posters?

At some point, you have to be right ONCE before you have any credibility at all.

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 09:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

I'll probably get flamed, but if the economy crashes a few months later than it actually did, we would have lost.

by RDemocrat 2008-11-01 09:45AM | 0 recs
or if Al Queda attacked in August

Or Rev Wright would have come out in Sept...

All of which did not happen.

My friend the Buddhist has said (tongue in cheek of course) God weighed in this time.....

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 09:51AM | 0 recs
Re: or if Al Queda attacked in August

Thats funny, a bunch of Republicans thought God weighed in during the 00 and 04 elections.

by RDemocrat 2008-11-01 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: or if Al Queda attacked in August

Well the hook is of course, he is a buddhist, so that should be your first clue this is snark......

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's poor endgame?

There is wisdom in campaigning everywhere for Obama.

It shows a general inclusiveness and is primarily for larger mandate.

This indicates that Obama and friends sincerely believe they have already won.

by dtaylor2 2008-11-01 11:05AM | 0 recs
WRONG!

The Obama campaign is working it's ass off till the polls close....

They haven't won a damn thing till then...

And neither have we...

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 01:08PM | 0 recs

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