A proud moment--my thoughts
by esconded, Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 05:14:51 PM EST
A great and wonderful night last night. A clear victory. It's going to be an exciting transition, and I can't wait for the inauguration speech. McCain gave a really classy concession speech. Can Obama govern? I hope he avoids the mistakes that Bill Clinton made in 1993--the dithering, the poorly vetted appointments, focusing on the wrong issues, the secrecy over the health care plan. Getting off to a strong start is important. This in important opportunity for Democrats--don't blow it.
The only damper on this is the passage of Prop. 8. It's just not there yet for gay marriage. It won even in LA County, which
was the killer. The No side running an awful campaign didn't help.
Downballot was slightly disappointing, though with Merkley winning Oregon (whew!) it's going to be a six seat pickup in the Senate, pending the Minnesota recount. Twenty seats in House was below almost everyone's estimate, including the MSM. I was a less optimistic in my prediction, since I saw fewer pickup opportunities than others did. We both won and lost some close races. In California, I'm wondering if Prop 8 may have hurt Charlie Brown in CA-04.
Also in California, the Democrats picked up two Assembly seats, and could add a state Senate seat, but turnout was disappointing.
Calling Ohio so early might have had an effect. And I the the CDP is stuck in the 90s way of doing things.
- Nate Silver. Really on the money (to the decimal point!), and was great reassurance any time the polls tightened or there was a "bad" state poll. McCain would have spent less time in PA and more time in VA, OH and FL had his campaign read 538's stuff.
- Obama's campaign organization. Absolutely the one of keys to his victory.
- Howard Dean. I'm not his biggest fan, but he laid the foundation.
- Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt. The kitchen-sink, Rovian negativity just didn't work.
- McCain's campaign organization. Almost no ground game strategy in many states.
- Matt Drudge. What will he be able to cherry-pick now? He was even leaking one-point moves in the Rasmussen tracker.
Among the national polls, Rasmussen's daily tracker is still the gold standard. Scott may be a Republican, but his methods are consistent and his final margin will be within one percent. Again. Other good polls were Ipsos-McClatchy and Fox (their last one was right there).
In the state polls, Mason-Dixon wasn't as good in 2004, as they got Ohio and Indiana wrong (and most likely North Carolina also) and badly underestimated Obama's Pennsylvania margin. They got Virginia and Florida right, but whiffed on Obama's large margin in Nevada. SUSA was the best, getting all the key states right, save for the slight (1%) miss in North Carolina and underestimating Minnesota. SUSA nailed Missouri (McCain +.35%), and showed the late swing to Obama in Florida. Rasmussen's state polling was off on Ohio and Florida, but dead-on in Virgina and Missouri.
In conclusion, a great election overall. Let's enjoy it while we can!