Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem nominee

It's a wild ride, and it's clear that the nomination battle will continue into March, well after the Republicans have chosen McCain as their nominee.  This is unfortunate for Dems, and McCain is already reaching out to Dem voters, giving him an unexpected advantage.  At this point, it appears that a Clinton/Obama type of ticket is probably our only path to success in November, in a tight election that might hinge on Iraq & the economy.

Hillary still has the overall advantage.  She's ahead now, and is likely to emerge from Super Tuesday with about 150 or 200 more delegates than Obama, overall.  Obama has momentum and more $$$, and by the end of Feb, he and HRC might be approximately tied in delegates.

However, Hillary has big leads in Ohio, PA, and Texas, and she has the intangible benefit of Florida and Michigan.

If FL and MI should "revote," the results might swing the nomination to Hillary, especially in Florida.  We should probably all hope for the FL and MI situation to be resolved before the convention.

If Obama were to be nominated  with FL and MI delegates unseated, it would be problematic for the Dems.  If the FL and MI delegates are somehow seated, HRC will probably be the nominee, unless Obama's momentum continues to grow.

If HRC wins Super Tuesday, Obama's momentum might diminish.  In addition, it's not clear if Obama can sway Hillary supporters to his side.  Yes, his curve has been steep, but it will probably level off fairly soon (asymptotic curve).  We are probably right now seeing his surge peaking, unless a lot of voters switch from Hillary to Obama, which seems unlikely.

Tags: clinton, Hillary, obama (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem

Hillary clinton should have a pretty good day tomorrow.

Anything can happen but I am confident she would win California.

by lori 2008-02-04 09:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem

Lori, I'm scared, I'm damn scared.

:)

I'm kidding.

I just hope for the best.

by RJEvans 2008-02-04 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem

Well, I'm scared and I'm not kidding.  It's just that life is strange and anything can happen and the damn media is doing everything they can to stop her and depress her supporters.  We'll see what happens.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-04 02:42PM | 0 recs
Who is floating the idea of a revote?

You have to remember, those were real honest to goodness elections, sanctioned at the state level, whether the DNC wants to grant delegates or not you can't change that simple fact.

I am not sure there has ever been a "do over" in an election such as these before.

The question is do you seat the delegates, or half the delegates or not.  Interesting aside, the head of the Michigan Democrats said on POTUS 08 there is no doubt in his mind that his delegates will be seated.

If we tick off MI or FL we LOSE in '08 for sure.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-04 09:33AM | 0 recs
The DNC would be smart to "do-over"

This would put the decision back in the hands of the voters, putting the controversy to an end without besmirching anyone, and without hurting the eventual Dem nominee.

If Obama were to try to block a "revote," it would make him look bad, and might prevent him from winning either State in November.

by enthusiast 2008-02-04 09:38AM | 0 recs
Re: The DNC would be smart to "do-over"

The decision in MI and FL were already in the hands of the voters.   The DNC simply said they would ignore the decision.  Some candidates pandered to Iowa and pulled off the Michigan ballot (Clinton, Kuchinich and Gravel did not).

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-04 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem

Does Hillary have a huge advantage in Florida and Michigan even if they are seated? Assuming most of "uncommited" in Michigan goes to Obama, it doesn't seem like her margin in terms of delegates would prove decisive in light of the number of upcoming contests.

by animated 2008-02-04 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem

P.S. Looking at Jerom's delegate widget, if Uncommitted goes to Obama it's only a 29-delegate Clinton margin once Michigan and Florida are added in. If that was going to be decisive, we're talking an incredibly close race.

by animated 2008-02-04 09:40AM | 0 recs
California

The Nation has an article on the internet suggesting that Hillary will probably win California based on early voting.

If they are correct, and if HRC gets a sizable victory in CA, she will get a major and perhaps crucial boost there.  There is reason to believe the media is likely to focus a lot of its attention on the results of the CA primary.

Some of the delegate projections based on the most current polling suggest HRC will end up with 100+ more delegates than Obama receives on 2/5.  This number could increase to 150, and if it does, HRC will be declared the clear winner of the Super Tuesday national primary.  A 150 delegate win would be very difficult for Obama to overcome, unless a lot of Hillary voters suddenly decide to change horses in the middle of the stream.

by enthusiast 2008-02-04 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: California

I just heard Larry sabato say that a few hours ago.

He said she has a huge advantage in early voting and that should pull her over the top.

The last survey usa poll I checked showed her with about a 20 point lead in early voting.

by lori 2008-02-04 09:38AM | 0 recs
Re: California

Do you have a link for those SUSA early voting polling data that Sabato might have referred to?

by enthusiast 2008-02-04 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: California

he was talking about the polling data he has been examining , he didn't say which of the polls it was.

but i have seen survey usa polls with that margin

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=7417510e-b5e4-4e94-a6f2-fd6e70 635255

56: 32 , Clinton/obama split in actual early voting.

by lori 2008-02-04 09:46AM | 0 recs
Re: California

Thanks - very interesting data.

Even among "likely" early voters, she was way ahead in that 1/27/08 poll.

by enthusiast 2008-02-04 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely...

Not disagreeing with your post necessarily, but I would be extremely disappointed with Hillary (or Obama) if they let the MI or FL delegates have a seat at the convention.  

I can't imagine a primary system where candidates would have to spend $30 million in an early primary state such as Florida.  We can't change the electoral calendar until we overhaul the way our presidential campaigns are funded.

by IowaCubs 2008-02-04 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Why Hillary is still most likely...

I'm all for Hillary, but I am worried about her overall chances.  Obama's momentum, media coverage, etc. is outstanding, even if not deserved.  

by findthesource 2008-02-04 10:00AM | 0 recs
Hillary should win by 100 delegates

or more, and if she does, the party leadership will need to start laying the groundwork for party unity behind the likely Dem nominee.

HRC would have an advantage of nearly 200 delegates if she gets a 100+ delegate win on 2/5.

by enthusiast 2008-02-04 10:26AM | 0 recs
2/5 will settle nothing

Even if she wins by 100 delegates, there are still many more states left - many of whom are favoring Obama (Va, Md, DC). At the end of the day I think it will come down to money. Hillary needs to bring in some serious bucks over the next couple of weeks - especially if Obama is still bringing in 7-8 million a week as he did in January.

by highgrade 2008-02-04 03:25PM | 0 recs

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