Why Hillary is still most likely to be the Dem nominee
by enthusiast, Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 09:26:21 AM EST
It's a wild ride, and it's clear that the nomination battle will continue into March, well after the Republicans have chosen McCain as their nominee. This is unfortunate for Dems, and McCain is already reaching out to Dem voters, giving him an unexpected advantage. At this point, it appears that a Clinton/Obama type of ticket is probably our only path to success in November, in a tight election that might hinge on Iraq & the economy.
Hillary still has the overall advantage. She's ahead now, and is likely to emerge from Super Tuesday with about 150 or 200 more delegates than Obama, overall. Obama has momentum and more $$$, and by the end of Feb, he and HRC might be approximately tied in delegates.
However, Hillary has big leads in Ohio, PA, and Texas, and she has the intangible benefit of Florida and Michigan.
If FL and MI should "revote," the results might swing the nomination to Hillary, especially in Florida. We should probably all hope for the FL and MI situation to be resolved before the convention.
If Obama were to be nominated with FL and MI delegates unseated, it would be problematic for the Dems. If the FL and MI delegates are somehow seated, HRC will probably be the nominee, unless Obama's momentum continues to grow.
If HRC wins Super Tuesday, Obama's momentum might diminish. In addition, it's not clear if Obama can sway Hillary supporters to his side. Yes, his curve has been steep, but it will probably level off fairly soon (asymptotic curve). We are probably right now seeing his surge peaking, unless a lot of voters switch from Hillary to Obama, which seems unlikely.