Slightly off-topic... But looking at the demographic changes, win or lose, isn't this likely to be the last time Republicans are competitive on the Presidential level for a very long time? Unless they completely change their party platform that is.
We're making inroads in their states with young people and minorities, and all they have left is the 65+ crowd in our states.
When you look at Obama's list, the only state on there likely to vote "for" McCain is NH. The others would have to vote specifically against Obama, and against their traditional democratic leanings. NM and CO being exceptions that have basically moved blue more naturally due to demographics.
In McCain's column, you have OH and Fl, two swing states that have voted Republican the last two elections, and Missouri, a bellwether state that voted for Bush twice. So if this map is correct, it is McCain that needs to turn things his way by giving Democrats in PA and MI a reason to vote against Obama. This seems like a good place for Obama no?
I expect a post on how Barack losing the pro pedophilia vote is Obama's new Black Voter, White Voter, White Working Class Voter, Jewish Voter, Latino Voter, Values Voter, Wal-Mart Mom Voter, Hockey Mom Voter, Pig-in-Lipstick Voter problem.
Last month everyone said that if the race was about Obama, he loses. Well, it isn't about Obama since McCain grabbed the nation's attention with his Palin pick. With a couple weeks in the spotlight, he's getting called out as a liar by just about every important news organization in the country.
McCain's center stage now. Isn't that a good thing?
If I'm Obama, what I'm thinking is this... "McCain had dozens of qualified people to chose from, and he picked the person that most resembles our current occupant in the White House. As they say, 'Fool me once...'".
Sorry, maybe a dumb question, but does anyone know if this works for people out of the country as well? I'm in Brazil and will likely be there on election day. Will they send my ballot overseas or do I need to find some expat org in this country?
It would make much more sense to argue that "Drill, Baby, Drill" is turning people towards McCain/Palin, rather than an argument that is based on pulling a couple random quotes about abortion. That would at least be consistent with another doomsday post Jerome had in the Summer.
A 17 point swing to McCain, is quite frankly, insane. If it's temporary (or wrong), great. If it's real, we should just face the fact that McCain would have pretty much smashed any Democrat this year. The idea that McCain and the Republicans offered the public any reason to vote for them during the RNC is just laughable.
It seems to me the easiest way to determine whether Palin will help McCain in the votes department would be to ask McCain-leaning independents which issues are they most concerned about. If the answer is National Security or experience, I think McCain handed Obama the election. If the answer is values, abortion, and the like (meaning that it was the evangelical base that was trending independent), then we can pretty much all agree that Obama never had a chance to begin with.
My opinion, the numbers just don't add up. The evangelical base was always going to vote for McCain, and his soft support is among more traditional republicans interested in electing someone who isn't a complete fuck up.
The healing, the catharsis...It's all so, so, well, maybe I'll just leave that thought unfinished. Seriously though, given how bad McCain is on women's issues, and all the hoops that Clinton supporters are making Obama jump through, there better be a pretty big uptick this year in female support come election day.
Slightly off-topic, but I'm really hoping Obama makes the convention about McCain. Obama's recent dip might well be based on a combination of factors, a couple of which probably won't be a factor long term (Edwards and Georgia). But one of the telling polls recently was the one that pretty much said that people are tired of hearing about Obama and want to hear about McCain. McCain's done a good job of setting the tone and given the Democrats a lot of material to help make the case against him.