what on her mind: 4 options for Hillary
by engels, Sun Jun 01, 2008 at 07:19:05 PM EDT
I am trying to understand what she wants:
1. She obviously convinced that she is the better candidate (I agreed) and that Obama will lose to McCain (agreed again).
- So one of her thoughts is simply if Dems want to lose (like RBC vote yesterday did show), they will nominate Obama.
- It means that McCain will be the president and Clinton will say: I told you so.
- And many of her supporters regardless of what she will do or say, will vote for McCain, if Obama nominated.
- And than she will use national organization she built and national support she got in 2008 to run in 2012.
2. She can keep running until convention, because endorsement from Superdelegates means nothing until convention and Obama will not have 2118 before August, because Supers cannot cast their vote.
- Meanwhile GOPs will swiftboat Obama, supers will switch to her and in addition she will seat all FL & MI delegates in accordance with their vote.
- she may want to restore normal 2210 magic number - good cause for it.
3. She can try harder right after June 3rd and try to convince Supers to endorse her and switch to her. It is the most aggressive and risky option, but she can do that with many good arguments:
- no caucuses in November means almost all red states with caucuses won by Obama will go to McCain, so his advantage in delegates is misleading.
- most states where Obama won because of black vote will go to McCain. In NC & MO she is currently beating McCain, but Obama losing; in MD McCain will lose anyway.
- she has excellent chances in swing states, while Obama is very risky proposition there.
4. She can choose to run as independent, because in 3-way race she will win blue states like MA and McCain will win red states like Utah.
- Most Hillary's supporters will support her if she will run as independent.
- She will get Latino, white working, woman and senior votes for the same reason she got it in primaries.
- Obama will have almost no chances in 3-way election, while Hillary will be very competitive, see this for example: