Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Puertorican newspaper El Vocero has published a poll done with Univisión Network

Hillary Rodham Clinton resultó ser la precandidata demócrata a la presidencia de Estados Unidos que favorecieron los puertorriqueños en una encuesta de EL VOCERO y UNIVISION, por un cómodo margen de 13 por ciento frente a su contrincante Barack Obama. El segundo hallazgo de la encuesta es que no importa quién resulte ser el o la aspirante demócrata, entre los boricuas cualquiera de los dos tiene una ventaja arrolladora de 62 por ciento frente al contendiente republicano John McCain. La encuesta reflejó que la Senadora por Nueva York obtuvo un 51 por ciento del favor de los encuestados frente a un 38 por ciento del Senador por Illinois. El 8 por ciento de las personas expresó que no votará por ninguno y el 3 por ciento no sabe o no contestó.

translated it means:

"Hillary Clinton was the the democrat presidential precandidate favored by puertoricans in a poll by El Vocero and Univision, by y comfortable margin of 13% against Barack Obama. The second finding is that no matter who the dem0crat candidate wins the primary both have an outstanding lead against the republican McCain of around 62%. Hillary obtained 51% against Obama's 38%. 8% will not vote for any or doesn't know"

Update [2008-5-28 14:10:11 by el mito]:: 50% of the electorate says it will not participate in the primary. 34% of the electorate dislikes Clinton, 44% dislike Obama.

Update [2008-5-28 14:13:31 by el mito]:: here is the link: http://www.vocero.com/noticias.asp?s=Locales&n=113365 they also had this to say

A la pregunta de cuán importante es el papel de Puerto Rico para definir la candidatura demócrata, el 46 por ciento dijo que es bien importante, el 26 por ciento es algo importante, un 13 por ciento considera que es un poco importante, un 14 por ciento que es nada importante y 1 por ciento no sabe o no contestó.
Translated: To the question of how important is the role of Puerto Rico in deciding the democratic presidential candidate, 46% very important, 26% something important, 13% of little importance and 14% not important at all..1 % didnt answer or didn't know.

Tags: 2008 Primary, puerto rico (all tags)

Comments

40 Comments

Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Hillary does or does not win Puerto Rico by 1-40%.  Obama does or does not win one or both of the primaries on June 3rd by large or small margins.  The Rules committee does or does not seat the MI and FL delegates.

IT

DOES

NOT

MATTER.

by rf7777 2008-05-28 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

IT
DOES
NOT
MATTER.

Or, translated back into Spanish: No tener importancia.

by fugazi 2008-05-28 09:49AM | 0 recs
Rather
NO
TIENE
IMPORTANCIA
by Fairy Tale 2008-05-28 09:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Rather

gracias.

by fugazi 2008-05-28 09:59AM | 0 recs
Thanks for the translation

I could sort of infer what it meant but I am not fluent in Spanish.

by Student Guy 2008-05-28 09:38AM | 0 recs
What was the methodogy of the poll?

by kraant 2008-05-28 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

they don't mention the methodology

by el mito 2008-05-28 10:02AM | 0 recs
Doh!

I was really curious, since I heard that local polling is done door to door because of the lack of landlines there.

Oh well, my curiosity will go unsated.

by kraant 2008-05-28 10:06AM | 0 recs
LandLines

Last time I was there everyone had a landline. Everyone had cells too so there is a possibllity a very few might have cancelled the LL's.

by parahammer 2008-05-28 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

Not Zogby or ARG. And that's all I need to know :-).

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

so...a poll conducted by Puerto Ricans is automatically invalid? How...special of you. is it all Latino people of just them you distrust?

by trytobereal 2008-05-28 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

The poster did not say that. This is trolling.

by PantherDem 2008-05-28 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

Seems it was a poll conducted by UNIVISION, the comment dismissed it because it was not enough what then? below he claims any poll from there is 'suspect' or something so i think your comment was the troll in fact.

by trytobereal 2008-05-28 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

It's quite obvious that you did not understand what he was saying. He was deriding Zogby, not praising it.

by PantherDem 2008-05-28 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

That's the exact opposite of what I was implying. Zogby and ARG are renowned for their failiness.

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

and Puerto Ricans or UNIVISION is not? seriously the way you said that came off very badly.

by trytobereal 2008-05-28 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: What was the methodogy of the poll?

You'd have to be completely unfamiliar with Zogby and ARG, and their reputation around here, to think that. Here's what you have to do to take offense:

1. Assume that ARG and Zogby are being held up as the gold standard of polling (which doesn't make any sense)

2. Assume that I'm implying that all other pollsters suck (which really doesn't make any sense)

3. Take that to mean that I'm suggesting that this poll sucks (which really, really doesn't make any sense)

4. From there, make the stupefying leap to assuming that I'm dismissing the poll out of bigotry (which is bordering on insanity).

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Good thing both lead McSame for the GE...er....um....never mind.

by IowaMike 2008-05-28 09:51AM | 0 recs
Even large numbers of PR citizens dislike them

I don't have a great feeling about the future.

by lombard 2008-05-28 09:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Even large numbers of PR citizens dislike them

Both of them have better fav/unfavs on the island than in the states. And, not to slight Puerto Ricans, they do not participate in the general election.

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Even large numbers of PR citizens dislike them

they don't but they feel participating in the process of electing THEIR president. Yep US president is their president tooo.

by el mito 2008-05-28 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Even large numbers of PR citizens dislike them

this is true, but I was under the impression that the somewhat-ambiguous status of the island meant that the POTUS was less of a leader figure on the island than in the states. But, I'm obviously not an expert in any way about this.

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 10:04AM | 0 recs
You made my point for me

These voters are less connected to the outcome of this process than those in the states and the candidates still have reasonably high unfavorables with the voters.

by lombard 2008-05-28 10:07AM | 0 recs
Re: You made my point for me

I think we've reached the point of media saturation where pretty much every person on the planet has an opinion of bath candidates. I really don't think this is so bad.

If you are terribly worried, remember - this is just one poll, from an unknown pollster. It's not SUSA or even Rasmussen. Cheer up :-)

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 10:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

also, can haz link?

by really not a troll 2008-05-28 10:03AM | 0 recs
by kraant 2008-05-28 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Isn't 13% the same as with the previous poll?

Are you sure that this is a new poll?

by frankly0 2008-05-28 10:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Polls in Puerto Rico, from my understanding, are somewhat unreliable. Please don't misunderstand not saying Hillary won't come out on top. I'm just questioning the margin.

by jsfox 2008-05-28 10:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

What % won't participate in the general election?

by kasjogren 2008-05-28 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

"What % won't participate in the general election?"

100 percent.

by fugazi 2008-05-28 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

How can the super delegates give the nomination to Obama when Hillary has won the popular vote and is the most electable in November?  That's insane!!

by karajan72 2008-05-28 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

The former is irrelevant as their is no official count of the popular vote, and that wasn't the metric the parties all were seeking to win.

The latter is unknown at this time.  You can't quantify it.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-28 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll
it translates to 58-42% result after votes counted.
If 50% of population will vote, it means she will get
more than 300000 votes than Obama, which will improve her lead in popular vote.
by engels 2008-05-28 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Wrong. The last major election had 1.8 million voters come out. If only 50% come out you are looking at maximum of about 600K people if that at all.  

by sweet potato pie 2008-05-28 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

50% of ELIGIBLE voters said they would vote, not 50% of those who voted in the last election.

by el mito 2008-05-28 10:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

Not sure about your math there.

by mistersite 2008-05-28 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

1) assume you caount only people who voted in "last election". 50% of them are 900000 not 600000. But  poll said 50% of all eligible voters, which probably more than 3 millions and 50% of them will be at least 1.5 millions...

by engels 2008-05-28 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

here

http://www.ceepur.org/estadisticas/feb08 /edadSexo/edysx%20(2.5.08).html

from Puerto Rico's Regsitrar of Voters

1,100,000 men and
1,250,000 women  are elgible to vote in the primaries

by el mito 2008-05-28 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Puerto Rico local Primary Poll

So if Hillary wins Puerto Rico, does that mean she's better positioned to win this critical swing state in the general election against McCain?

If a state that cannot vote in the general election is the one that puts her in the lead in a couple measures of the popular vote- does make that argument more or less relevant?

Either way, this is EXCELLENT NEWS! FOR HILLARY!!!

by KTinTX 2008-05-28 10:38AM | 0 recs
Puerto Rico Primary Poll translation

I used this: http://translate.google.com/translate_t? sl=es&tl=en

In front Hillary
By: Editorial El Vocero

Hillary Rodham Clinton proved to be the Democrat candidate for the presidency of the United States favored that Puerto Ricans in a survey of El Vocero and UNIVISION, by a comfortable margin of 13 percent compared to his opponent Barack Obama. The second finding of the survey is that no matter who turns out to be the candidate or the Democrat, among boricuas either have an overwhelming advantage of 62 percent against the Republican contender John McCain. The survey showed that Senator for New York holds a 51 per cent of respondents favor compared with 38 percent of Illinois Senator. The 8 percent of people said that not vote for none and 3 percent did not know or did not reply. The 72 per cent of those interviewed would vote for whom they prove to be the candidate or the Democratic Party, while only 10 percent would elect the Republican John McCain if they could exercise their right to vote in the general election of November to decide who will occupy the Presidency of the United States. The two percent replied that would depend on whom to nominate the Democratic Party, an eight percent did not vote and another eight percent replied that he does not know or did not reply. When asked how important is the role of Puerto Rico to define the Democrat nomination, 46 percent said it is very important, 26 percent is something important, 13 percent believed was an unimportant, 14 per percent that nothing is important and 1 percent did not know or did not reply. To find out the possible participation next Sunday's election in the presidential primary was established a scale of 1 to 10 that represents 10 people who are totally safe to go to vote and 1 that they will not do. In those terms, 50 percent decided not to vote (1 to 5), 46 percent which is slightly inclined to vote (6 to 10), 43 percent that is well inclined to vote (8 to 10) and 37 per cent which is totally confident that come to vote (10). On the question of how they feel regarding the candidates, 52 percent of respondents understood that their feelings are very favorable toward Clinton and 42 percent believed the same thing regarding Obama. Meanwhile, 34 percent have unfavorable feelings toward the Senator and 44 percent toward the Senator. To measure the perception that exists on former president Bill Clinton and their possible influence on the candidacy of his wife, the survey addressed the opinion of people on its government administration in the period from 1992 to 2000. The 69 percent replied that they approved totally managing Bill Clinton, 26 percent gave him a total disapproval andthe 5 percent do not know or did not reply. Another factor that wanted to study to determine the importance it gives to the people when deciding on a candidate or another, was the problem of Vieques. Some 63 percent of people said they consider important to be well compensated to Vieques for damage to health caused by the exercises of the Navy. About 20 percent said that it was something important, a 7 per cent which is not very important, 9 percent that nothing is important and 1 percent who do not know or did not reply. The 42 percent said it is much more inclined to vote for if the presidential candidate supports compensation to Vieques, a 31 percent replied that is somewhat more inclined, 10 percent to slightly less inclined, a 6 percent that much less inclined, a 9 percent is indifferent and 2 percent did not reply.

by engels 2008-05-28 10:41AM | 0 recs

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