Congratulations Hillary supporters

I know we've had some very intense arguments over the week.  I even said a couple of mean things, for which I apologize.  Your candidate won the day, for the most part.  She fought hard and earned it.

I wish he'd had a South Carolina "wave" tonight.  I was particularly disappointed Obama's performance in California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.  She outperformed the "expectations" established over the last week.  She looks strong.

I'm encouraged however.  Obama took Connecticut and Delaware, which was unthinkable a few weeks ago.  He pretty much swept the white voter dominant midwestern states.  The California margin looks bad, but I'm seeing some trends in his favor as the day's votes are being counted to dilute the extensive early voting - particularly in the white-heavy rural areas (and no returns are yet in for Alameda County).  And he won 13 states if you include Missouri, 10 more than he was projected to win as of a couple of weeks ago.  And it looks like he broke even in delegates.

But she stopped his momentum.  He'll just have to start it rolling again tomorrow.  With Super Tuesday out of the way he can go back to the type of campaigning he does best, where he visits three towns a day filling gymnasiums and town halls.  As one pundit, whose name I just can't remember, said, "you only get it when you're in the room with him." On Saturday he'll take Nebraska and Louisiana and I think he'll stump very well in Washington State.  Then begins the campaign of Chesapeake Bay, with the perfect demographics for him.  February should be a good month, and hopefully he can close the deal on March 4.

In the meantime, I'm making a pledge to change my tone here and elsewhere.  McCain's looking real strong and if Clinton does win it, I will support her, no matter how many MYDD posts piss me off.

Tags: California, clinton, Democratic Party, nomination, obama, Primaries, Super Tuesday (all tags)

Comments

74 Comments

Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

How in the world can anyone claim Clinton won?  Obama won virtually all of the red/purple states, won MORE states and is likely to win MORE delegates.  There is no way she won tonight.

by Socks The Cat 2008-02-05 08:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

She took California and several states in which Obama fought hard.  Yeah, he broke even in delegates.  But she's still in the driver's seat, particularly with the superdelegates.  A win in NJ, Mass, or California would have been devastating.  And you know as well as I that we were all hoping for a grand SC type sweep.  

She broke serve.  But the set's still even.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Dems: Clinton 612, Obama 484.

Read more from CNN here. The Page, 1:40 AM
SUPER TUESDAY SCORECARD

by Seymour Glass 2008-02-05 09:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Yes, but when it's all through, they're both projected to have between 8 and 9 hundred.  Obama may even come out slightly ahead according to one CNN projection.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 09:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Having fun?  We held you.  See ya' Super Tuesday and raise ya' the next four.  This is so sweet.  You never expected this, didja'?  Texas and Ohio, eh?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Estimates are that Obama won sligyhtly more delegates last night.  Your data is sort of like posting returns when 50% of the vote has been reported.    

by HSTruman 2008-02-06 04:34AM | 0 recs
I hope

you're stewing in your own bile this morning as those counts start to even up...

by zonk 2008-02-06 05:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I'll steal the Obama campaign's Florida spin: He won tiny caucus states where he campaigned hard and Clinton skipped.

Nice diary Drummond, looks like we have a long way to go and it may remain very close to the end.

by souvarine 2008-02-06 04:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

It's true.  I think she could have reduced the margins, but Obama owns the rectangular states without significant Hispanic populations.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Two factors helped Clinton take California: the 2 million absentee ballots cast before Feb 5, and the short time span between the SC primary and Big Tuesday. Both factors biased the vote against Obama, because he was unable to exploit his momentum, take advantage of early Edwards voters or the potential switch from Clinton and other candidates on the early ballot, and campaign longer in the state.

Latest prediction is for an even delegate count, even though Hillary may have a slight edge in the popular vote.

For the rest of the primaries, time will be on Obama's side.

by shergald 2008-02-06 04:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Yeah, Obama took the north coast counties.  If he had the luxury to campaign here, it could have been a much different result.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

wel Clinton won 49% of the popular vote against 48% for Obama. But Obama probably won more delegates. Which states they won and how their history is unimportant.

So she won the voting battle, he probably won the delegate battle. So both sides have a point. but if you want to avoid the Bush-Gore fiasco of 2000, you actually need to win both.

A nominee without a popular mandate would be a nightmare. And the super delegates should work to avoid that.

by Ernst 2008-02-06 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Yes, his victories were mostly red/purple.  Have you thought about what that says about his electability?  Those victories are great in primaries, but in the general those states will remain red.  It's states like Florida and California that are critical.

by PlainWords 2008-02-06 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Drummond, would you favor a combined ticket?

by ejintx 2008-02-05 08:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I'm not dead set against it.  But I would be concerned about two Democratic Senators leaving office while it's so close.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Meh; they're both intelligent people.  Combined they probably could swing a huge Democrat freshman class in 2010 at the latest.  I guess the only question is who leads that ticket.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I don't think Clinton would want to do it.  Not saying she's petty, but if she can't be president I think she'd want to continue to make her mark in the Senate in a leadership position.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 08:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I see your point; that's kind of why I want Clinton to lead the ticket, let Obama build all the experience he wants to and then make a killing in 2016.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Ha ha ha.  Nice try...  If you can't beat 'em corrupt 'em.  No way.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

"corrupt them" -- That's so childish.  Obama is just another politician, and if being a politician is corrupt, then he is corrupt too.  That's why he made all those "present" votes.  It's why he watered down a bill to make nuclear plants report accidents to where the reporting was not mandatory, and then claimed he had passed a bill that mandated reporting.  And worse, the watered-down bill did not even pass.  So he claimed credit for something he didn't do.  Was he lying?  Or is he just sloppy about the truth?  It's also why he let a lobbyist help him buy a $1.6 million house.  Then when he got caught he said it was a "boneheaded" mistake.  That doesn't help because we don't need a president who makes boneheaded mistakes -- especially at the behest of lobbyists.  There are plenty of other examples.

Oops!  Sorry -- didn't mean to knock off his halo, with so many college kids wanting to "Believe in" him.

by PlainWords 2008-02-06 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

It's the Clinton/Obama ticket narrative I am pushing back on.  She should win this outright on her merits, not hitch her wagon to his star in order to defeat him.  That's all.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-06 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

What could possibly be more bone headed than voting to authorize the Iraq War? She can't spin that.

by keatsheart 2008-02-06 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

He'd get more experience in the Senate.  I mean, don't get me wrong.  If she wins, he would give her the best shot of winning in November, and I would support it.  But he goes in as VP and his presidential aspirations are as good as dead.  

by Drummond 2008-02-05 09:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Don't fall for it, it's a trap.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:40PM | 0 recs
You need to recalibrate

I used to think that momentum meant something.

We need to start realizing it doesn't mean what it once did.

Obama is about to go on a February run of positive states... He's going to head into mini-Tuesday with a head of steam.

by zonk 2008-02-05 08:52PM | 0 recs
Re: You need to recalibrate

Good point.  Maybe it's like the old football concept "establishing the run," which John Madden said was commentator-created crap.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 08:57PM | 0 recs
Not sure

if you're from Chicago or not -- but there's a (Roosevelt U, I think?) local politics Professor, Paul Green -- who does analysis on WGN radio.

He's kind of a mini or local Larry Sabato.

He preaches the 3 M's -- Media, Money, Momentum.

I was listening to him on the radio a bit during commercials/whenever the networks talked GOP -- he's starting to say this race looks unusual in that momentum is moving slower than expected.

I think momentum matters - but I think we need to see it less as lighting, and more as slow, rumbling thunder.

by zonk 2008-02-05 09:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Not sure

This is an unusual election.  Obama's success is exceptional and significant.  Slowly, slowly, catchee monkey.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I want him to drop out ASAP.

by prisonbreak 2008-02-05 08:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

No chance.  I'll be sending him a donation tomorrow.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 08:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I sent one to Hillary tonight.

by atomic garden 2008-02-05 09:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Should stay interesting.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

You're a case.  I am actually growing to appreciate your eccentric and immutable style.  You've become an iconic legend around here, you know.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

why should he drop out? He's got more money, has won more states, and held the delegate count to a draw. Why shouldn't she drop out?

Oh, and I donated to Obama again today.

by keatsheart 2008-02-06 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Thank you.

They seemed to have both "won"- it can certainly be viewed from both perspectives.  Your candidate is putting up a hell of a fight and I'd say it's 50/50 over who will win- he won alot tonight- and both made history.  Hillary is the first woman to win that many primaries and Obama beat Jesse Jackson in primary wins so it was a good night for both.

We'll just have to fight it out until the end.  Good luck to your candidate.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-05 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Yes.  This is a significant contest and will not end soon.  Don't despair that McCain is consolidating while we continue to fight, we will emerge stronger for the contest.  No-one wins by disrespecting their adversaries, we are learning much about each other that will give us energy for the general election.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Very well said.  

by HSTruman 2008-02-06 04:36AM | 0 recs
no chance of hrc bho ticket

she would never accept vp and he would die of boredom. bho will clean up in wa and the potomac. I can only imagine what kind of disgusting attacks the clintons will employ.  

by highgrade 2008-02-05 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: no chance of hrc bho ticket

I don't think they can do that at this point.  The party elders came down on them and they'll risk losing superdelegates if that start up the crap again.

But I could be wrong.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 09:18PM | 0 recs
Re: no chance of hrc bho ticket

You're right.  But the stealthy stuff is still on the cards.  We must be alert and vigilant, the VP narrative is a cunning ploy.  Let's hope today dispelled it.  It's hard to tell on any given day if she's channelling Eleanor Roosevelt, Margaret Thatcher, Grover Cleveland or Lucrezia Borgia.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 09:54PM | 0 recs
Re: no chance of hrc bho ticket

Yep, she's definitely evil, that Hillary.

by Denny Crane 2008-02-06 04:00AM | 0 recs
Re: no chance of hrc bho ticket

that isn't be true!

Unlike Hillary none of those would kick a puppy!

by Ernst 2008-02-06 04:46AM | 0 recs
i still hope Obama sends a signal

that he's not looking for VP (if in fact he isn't). The Clinton's are using this "he'd be a good VP pick) to try and pick off a couple of voters who may see that as a way to think that they're having the best of both worlds.

by highgrade 2008-02-06 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Good post, congrats on being up to it. I like the debate, but don't mind casting out those on both sides that can't be civil-minded.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-02-05 09:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

You know, it hasn't really been that bad.  Just kind of petty and juvenile at times, and I've contributed to it on at least a couple of occasions.  Should have waited a few minutes to hit the post button.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 10:25PM | 0 recs
Well, thanks!

I appreciate your graciousness.  I would say she was saved tonight rather than victorious and the rest of the month looks quite favorable to him.

by lombard 2008-02-05 09:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Well, thanks!

It should be interesting to watch.

by Drummond 2008-02-05 10:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters
thanks, drummond. as a hill supporter, i appreciate this; i always feel a lot better when our camps aren't bickering, as seldom as that is. :)
by nance 2008-02-05 10:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Hillary owns Penn, Ohio, Texas and sates that matter. They will put her on top. Rethugs are rapping McCain for winning states that they "will not" win. Do you think Obama will win Utah and Wyoming in the fall? BTW, whatever happened to Ted, Oprah, Carolyn, Maria, Kerry, MSNBC, Dowd, Noonan, Rich, Robinson, et al.?

Just so you know, "rapping" aint "code words", I mothered a black teenager who free styles, I mean raps.

by Actright 2008-02-06 02:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

At the moment.  But that's very fluid, particularly with Ohio.  A good friend of mine knows moderate Republicans who have re-registered as Democrats because of him.  When he starts getting into those towns, he'll soar.

Texas may be another story.  But he has a month to figure it out.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Is Ohio a dem primary only or can independents cross over?

by keatsheart 2008-02-06 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I applaud your graciousness. But I think this morning if you do a little research you shall find good news on our guy.

He won more states. He won more delegates. He has momentum. He has money. (and what's this about Gore?) Plus he should win the next seven contests over the next seven days...

by aiko 2008-02-06 03:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Well he sure didn't act like it in his speech.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-06 03:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Very classy Drummond. Very classy indeed.

I think Hillary won the night because of her big wins in NJ, Mass., and California, which were especially sweet for me.  She not only survived an all-out assault in Mass and Cali, she triumphed.

But make no mistake, Obama had a good night too.  He accomplished a great deal last night, and I imagine his supporters are celebrating as well.

This leads me to say the real winners here are Democrats in general.  Clearly, Democrats really like both of their choices and they are responding by showing up to vote, volunteering and giving record amounts of cash.  That bodes very well for us in November, no matter who the nominee is.

by Denny Crane 2008-02-06 03:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I'm very much concerned about McCain actually.  He's looking very strong.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

If it makes you feel better my very right wing father will not vote for McCain. He also will not vote for Hillary. But if it comes down to Obama versus McCain, he will happily vote for Obama.

by keatsheart 2008-02-06 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Well, there's a selling point.  I've heard similar stories elsewhere.

So why would he prefer Obama to McCain?

by Drummond 2008-02-06 12:57PM | 0 recs
Congratulations, Obama Supporters!

Thanks, Drummond. As a big HIllary supporter, I appreciate your thoughts and civility. (I've just about given up on DKos but like to go back often and toy with the kids). Last night Hillary pulled great wins in CA, NJ, and how about that MA? ;-)  These are the key wins that are keeping her in the "split victory" perception category in the media and it appears that delegates will be all but split. With that crushing wave of "MO" out there--that's so eagerly fanned in the MSM waves unabashedly--she managed to hold her own and not be swept away by the big O tsunami.

But I can't deny Obama's wins, like that one he pulled from our clutches, Missourri, and CT--and a few others in states where I'd be surprised if one black person lived--come with legit bragging rights.

So...congrats Obama supporters--you got big MO with the O--and Go team Hillary!!    

by Mariel 2008-02-06 04:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations, Obama Supporters!

Well said.

by grlpatriot 2008-02-06 04:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations, Obama Supporters!

It'll be interesting to see how Nebraska goes with Clinton able to campaign in one of those states.

I'm thinking that the party should try to limit the number of states on Super Tuesday.  There's no point to some of the smaller states being in it.  They get lost in the shuffle.  Nobody could afford to visit Alaska.  But if Alaska had its primary on Thursday instead of yesterday, both candidates would have spent today up there.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:52AM | 0 recs
Not sure why

folks think Hillary dominated. She was supposed to finish it off yesterday (based on conventional thinking a few months back) and she didn't. And the delegates will be roughly even. Obama tends to do better over time, and he's got a ton of money. Plus, he's got some good states coming -- LA, Virginia, etc.

by HKingsley 2008-02-06 04:55AM | 0 recs
Thanks

Great diary.  We could all use a change of tone here, and this is a great way to get it started.

The bottom line?  Both candidates got very near the same amount of votes and the same amount of delegates.  This is going to be a fight that goes all the way through the end of the primary and caucus season and, more likely, all the way to the convention.  It will obviously come down to the Super Delegates, and who knows how many of them will declare their preferences before the convention.  It could also come down to whether Michigan and Florida delegates are seated, or even what happens to the couple of dozen delegates that Edwards has.

In other words, we're going to be going at this for several more months.  We might as well be nice to each other!

by markjay 2008-02-06 05:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Thanks

Or at least civil.  I expect conversations to be heated.  But I think in the last week the disrespect has reached a pitch.  If the candidates have toned it down, their supporters ought to as well.

by Drummond 2008-02-06 05:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

We are back to zero with both candidates. This entire nomination contest so far was about bringing HRC down into an equal stance with Obama.

Which is now done.

Now the real fight begins. Clinton supporters, I appreciate your participation but I urge those of you in the states yet to vote to re-examine her and think about why you support HER not why you hate/oppose Obama.

Thanks.

by MNPundit 2008-02-06 05:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Couldn't you say the same thing about Obama supporters? Shouldn't they reexamine their support for Obama?

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-06 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Absolutely, YOU could but NOT ME. This is a pro-Clinton diary and I am an Obama supporter. I leave the task of asking them re-analyze to you, or rather, Clinton supporters.

So, ask away.

by MNPundit 2008-02-06 08:31AM | 0 recs
Mistake.

Whoops miss-spoke. I meant "directed to Pro-Clinton diarists."

by MNPundit 2008-02-06 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Shergald, do you realize how offensive your image of Carter's book is to a huge chunk of the Democratic base or do you NOT care?  Obama is a strong supporter of Israel, which I think you probably know.

by New York Democrat 2008-02-06 06:09AM | 0 recs
It wasn't that close...

Clinton won big in all the big blue diverse states that did not have some sort of demographic scew.

The margins in CA and NJ where a shocker.

Hispanics went hard for Clinton.

Most of Obama's delegate pickups came from caucus red states and southern red states that Clinton skipped. Of course the delegates count, but the results are not indicative of performance in more competitive contests.

Obama's win in Missouri and CT were basically ties.

Anyway, it will go on.  But unless Obama shows that he can win big diverse states I think he's got a big problem.

by MediaFreeze 2008-02-06 06:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

I think the superdelegates will force a Clinton-Obama ticket if it stays as it is.

by rossinatl 2008-02-06 07:33AM | 0 recs
when

would they be able to "force" a ticket? at the convention? it would seem that someone is going to have a lead. if it's obama, do u honestly think HRC will take the VP spot?  

by highgrade 2008-02-06 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

It was a stressful night for the lot of us. Hope everyone is ok this morning. I know i am not lol i am OD'ing on caffeine.

Also - at this point, i want HRC to pull it out, but would be happy with either or.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-02-06 08:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Obama wins and will continue to win caucus states. This is not encouraging to me personally, as I am in a caucus State where Clinton narrowly won because of the one area of the State that is strongly Democratic.

Our caucus was swarming with Republicans, and there is no guarantee they will vote for a Democrat in the GE. In fact, one Republican I know personally gleefully stated he was there to stop Hillary and would never vote Democratic in the GE. One has to wonder how many of the Republicans were there with the same intent.

Democrats have to change the caucus system. If someone registers specifically to caucus, they should not be able to re-register back to another party for the GE. We're just asking for trouble, and as a result our weakest candidate will win caucus states.

If this is not the case, the only way we will ever know is if Obama wins the nomination. If he does, the "red" caucus states that he won Tuesday should theoretically go blue in unprecedented landslides. I honestly don't see that happening.

Where I live, there are still people who think Jr is a great guy, doing a great job. No way are they going to vote Democratic in the GE. I would bet the same is true of Idaho, North Dakota, Utah and other caucus states.

by jen 2008-02-06 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Congratulations Hillary supporters

Thank you for setting a new tone.  I am a Hillary supporter; however, I, too, will support whoever our democratic nominee is.  I personally hope they are both on the ticket together.  

by hillarygrrrl 2008-02-06 04:31PM | 0 recs

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