• comment on a post Barack Obama's Going Big over 7 years ago

    Nice post.

    I was going to write a similar diary myself.

    I'll just add a few points.

    1) I think this is why the whole Obama is DLC or Lieberman-lite is dead wrong. Obama is not bipartisan or a traingulator, he's post=partisan. He wants to bring the country together by getting rid of the cynicism that we can't accomplish anything. If that can be accomplished, than we can move toward solving our big problems like Iraq, health care, energy, the environment.

    2) this post jives with Obama's statements like "the smallness of our politics," the fact he sees himself as somewhat of a stand-in for people who don't know much about him, his Knox college speech which discussed the New Deal, etc.

  • comment on a post Obama Calls for Withdrawal by 2008 over 7 years ago

    Now we need the MSM to pick up on this instead of the nonbinding resolutions and ridiculous debates about bad and evil men" jokes and nonsense madrassa stories.

    Any thoughts Matt, Jerome, Chris?

  • comment on a post Latest Exit Polls from Slate over 9 years ago
    Good Start but ....

    FINISH HIM!!!!!!! (note primal scream)

  • comment on a post Early exit polling of Latinos in Florida over 9 years ago
    from exit polls. Ideas?
  • Those numbers are only for florida where bush does well and did very well in 2000. Overall Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Dem.

    The basic idea: Bush is underperforming in Hispanic votes in Florida as compared to 2000.

  • on a comment on Early VNS exit polling over 9 years ago
    I agree (not about feeling bad for him).

    Also, look at the daughters. They looked pretty sad, possibly b/c they can't hide it like their parents. They could just be nervous - like me!!!

    What is certainly true - Bush was more humble than I've seen him in 4 years.

  • comment on a post Early VNS exit polling over 9 years ago
    Reports are lines are short and turnout weak (TNR). Verification? I was worried about NM as is, and with low turnout Kerry's toast.
  • comment on a post Republicans challenging Democracy in Ohio, update over 9 years ago
    it that Bush needs to hold a rally today in Ohio? Can only be goods news, no? Shouldn't his supporters go to the polls rather than listen to him stump?

    And yes, Kerry is in Wisc. But (1) this makes sense since they have same day registration unlike Ohio and (2) it indicates to me that Kerry thinks he has either FL or OH (or both) and just needs to carry Wisc.

  • comment on a post Turnout And The Incumbent Rule over 9 years ago
    The WP notes the Reps. are excited b/c  they hold a 2-1 advantage in early voting in Jacksonville. Truth? Anyone have any inside info? Bush won the area by 40k in 2000 but nearly 27000 votes were thrown out in heavily African American precincts.
  • Where did you get these numbers?

    2) Do you mean 5% chose to avoid voting for pres. or 5% ballots dicarded, or 5% for a third party? 5% seems really high, no?

    thanks for the insight.

  • comment on a post Kerry Will Win the EV Vote but Lose the Popular Vote over 9 years ago
    Show bush with 51 and 49 respectfully. Any know the internals breakdown? Thanks.
  • comment on a post UPDATE: Iowa Kerry Lead over 9 years ago
    The Columbus Dispatch poll is 50-50 in Ohio but the article goes on to say:

    "After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago.

    Dead even.

    President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at just less than 50 percent in a new Dispatch Poll.

    How close is this matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes out of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey -- the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll.

    A similar survey in late March shortly after Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination put Bush ahead by 34 responses.

    However, in the past four weeks Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie with Bush. And several signs indicate the Massachusetts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio.

    Kerry is ahead by 14 points among independent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state's most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.

    Meanwhile, the poll contains troubling signs for Bush. Only 44 percent say things in the nation are headed in the right direction. Fewer than half approve of his handling of Iraq and the economy. And his overall approval rating is 49 percent, a measure that many political experts say represents a ceiling on his support Tuesday.

    But this election is so close in Ohio that the winner will be determined by which side gets its voters to the polls Tuesday, and by how the public perceives such late-breaking developments as the newly released video of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps the biggest question -- aside from the effect of possible Election Day challenges at polling places -- is how many of Ohio's 1 million newly registered voters will cast ballots.

    These newbies now represent one in eight Ohio voters, and they support Kerry by nearly a 2-1 margin in the poll."

    Good news. I honestly believe we have Florida based on talking to people there. If Kerry takes Ohio its over, since other reliable polls in the upper Midwest show Kerry winning (he might lose Iowa).

  • comment on a post Open / Action Thread over 9 years ago
    internals for the new mason dixon polls?
    How right do they lean?

    MSNBC is playing up the results. Fuckers.

  • comment on a post Polling Thread over 9 years ago
    breakdown. Is this fair nationally?
  • comment on a post Zogby's latest: Kerry 47, Bush 46 over 9 years ago
    B/c of few visits to MN I sense that Bush could take this state. Gore barely won it in 2000, and Minn sent a Rep. over Mondale/Wellstone in 02. I think Kerry should shore it up, no? He seems to be safe in MI, and after vivits to Madison and Milwaukee I think he has Wisc. Insight?

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