Why it will be Cain.
by donkeykong, Fri Sep 30, 2011 at 12:34:44 PM EDT
Its very difficult sometimes to speak honestly about politics.
During the 2008 campaign there were some liberals who honestly thought Obama was the smartest man to enter politics and was on a level above everyone else who had to take decades to achieve their level of competence. Some but not many still believe that Obama is so much smarter than everyone else and has no peer in the democratic party.
Among the same liberals there are calls for a primary campaign of someone even more liberal to be the new messiah of the democratic party. Among more pragmatic democrats there is a grim realization that the defeat in 2012 is already baked in both in the senate (where we need to win 23:10 just to break even) and in the white house.
Because he is black.
Because Obama is the first black president there can be no dissent.
I don't mean there should be dissent and you should heed my call to dissent.
I mean the political calculus of reality demands that the democratic party bend over and take a loss so that no one can blame them for not trying for the first black president. Thats baked in.
Black people have suffered a lot over the history of the USA and like it or not this is our turn to suffer for something that means a lot of them.
And they will vote for him. They will come out to vote for the first black president. Their parents, grandparents will see to that even if they personally are not moved. Its cultural, like flags on the fourth of July. I am 100% ok with this. If situations were reversed I would demand it too.
The black vote is Obama's last genuine voter block to which he has met all expectations. Say what you will about Obama he is black and he is the first and deep down thats all black voters cared about in 2008. Vote for me and a black man will be in the white house and he delivered.
Enter the GOP.
They want Obama out of the white house so much they would be willing to put a black man in the white house to do it. By running Cain they have the opportunity to do two very powerful things.
1) They allow those black voters unhappy with Obama to stay home. This is massive. Without the I am black and you are not card Obama is dramatically less attractive. Do you honestly think a white male Obama would beat a white male Hillary Clinton? We would call that white male Bill Clinton and I think you all know the answer on that one. This will MASSIVELY suppress turnout. It won't move the percentages much but the voter suppression will be huge. Why vote when you get a black president either way?
2) This neutralization or partial neutralization of what has been a 80%+ advantage for the democratic party among black voters could be permanent. History won't lie about Obama. He was an affirmative action candidate with less qualifications than are typically expected, less than Governor Bush the lessor, less than Reagan the actor/governor Less than Ford the ex football player. If the GOP runs a real black candidate who manages to pass this 9 9 9 thing the history books will put an asterisk next to Obama and Obama/Cain will be mentioned as a single entity that overcame the black president barrier.
In 2008 the democratic party had a historic opportunity and took it. There will never again be a great candidate who is black who isn't considered because we can't have black candidates win. S/He will always be presented with the Obama test and so long as their resume is longer and stronger than Obama's 4 years in the senate they will be admitted to the top levels of power. The Colin Powells of the world will have a legitimate opportunity to be president. Obama owns that as do all who voted for him.
In 2012 the republican party has a historic choice. They can either play it safe or they can go for a touchdown. If they elect a black president on the very next cycle they may permanently make inroads on the more conservative members of black Americans and make all of us less racially aware. And because of how the political calculus is setup, running a black candidate makes perfect sense because of the ability to neutralize obama's one true strength and expose his complete lack of any other strengths that rank at the presidential level.
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