I agree with you that prolific Republican partisan polling is skewing the averages. I think Boxer, Murray, Coons, Blumenthal and Reid will win and Sestak is not out of it. Even Feingold could surprise if cell-phone-only voters in Milwaukee and Madison turn out. Disagree with you on Crist and Conway--they are out of it in my opinion.
I think we will lose the House, but not with a 60-70 seat loss many are talking about. The Democrats won the Congressional vote by about 7 percent in 2006, even though they had much larger leads in many of the generic ballot polls at the time. It's possible the Republican advantage in the Congressional voting will only be 2-3 percent, which means either holding the House or losing the House by a margin that could be made up in 2012 (depending on how redistricting goes).
Raising questions about the secret donors behind the American Future Fund's $1 million intervention in IA-01 seems to be central to Bruce Braley's campaign strategy now. Not saying Democrats shouldn't be doing this, but you also have to give people a reason to vote for you. Raising suspicions about who's backing the other side isn't going to be enough.
between 40 and 50 seats. The outside groups are going to swamp what Democrats can spend, the DCCC's ads aren't good, Congress didn't handle issues well this fall, the economy sucks and I don't see any outside game-changing event happening.
In IA-01, long considered a safe seat, the 501(c)4 American Future Fund will spend about a million dollars against Bruce Braley. Braley "should" be ok in a D+5 district where he outperformed Obama in 2008, but who knows in this kind of environment with that kind of money spent against him?
Bush I was much more reality-based than today's GOP leaders. He also signed off on the Clean Air Act and supported a tax increase as part of a deficit-cutting program. I disliked him intensely but he did not wholly ignore real problems in the world.
on the right are so weird. I recently learned that the Republican Party of Iowa adopted a plank in the platform calling for the "original" 13th amendment to be ratified. This was the Titles of Nobility Act of 1810--apparently there's a cottage industry on how it should be considered ratified.