PA-Sen Santorum Surging

According to a recent Morning Call poll (hat tip TDGoddard at Political Wire), Santorum is now within single digits of Bob Casy in the PA senate race.  Other recent polls still show Casey up by double digits.
With his known propensity for losing huge early poll leads because of his lackluster campaign style are we getting ready to see another Casey implosion?  We need to see some more polling on this race before we start hollering that the sky is falling.
Take a break from the Nedmentum and give me your thoughts on the Pennsylvania race.

Tags: Bob Casey, PA-Sen, Rick Santorum (all tags)

Comments

11 Comments

Re: PA-Sen Santorum Surging

You do realize that 1 in 20 polls is off by more than the margin of error, even assuming they all have perfectly random sampling of the people who end up voting?

by KCinDC 2006-08-05 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen Santorum Surging

I agree, this looks like an outlier poll.

Even if it's not, it's horrible for an incumbent to be trailing a challenger at this stage of the campaign. Santorum is history.

by desmoinesdem 2006-08-05 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen Santorum Surging

Hotline On Call noted today that this poll doesn't track with other public and internal polls and that both Dems and GOPers (privately) acknowledge this.

I do think it'll get closer, but no need to panic or start talking about a Casey implosion.

by Newsie8200 2006-08-05 01:24PM | 0 recs
Is Casey gonna blow it in Pennsylvania?

Well, you know what Harry Truman said in 1952....

The first rule in my book is that we have to stick by the liberal principles of the Democratic Party. We are not going to get anywhere by trimming or appeasing. And we don't need to try it.

The record the Democratic Party has made.... is the greatest political asset any party ever had in the history of the world. We would be foolish to throw it away. There is nothing our enemies would like better and nothing that would do more to help them win an election.

I've seen it happen time after time. When the Democratic candidate allows himself to be put on the defensive and starts apologizing.....he is sure to lose. The people don't want a phony Democrat. If it's a choice between a genuine Republican, and a Republican in Democratic clothing, the people will choose the genuine article, every time; that is, they will take a Republican before they will a phony Democrat, and I don't want any phony Democratic candidates in this campaign.

by Sitkah 2006-08-05 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Is Casey gonna blow it in Pennsylvania?

can we please retire this cliche already?

by johnny longtorso 2006-08-05 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Is Casey gonna blow it in Pennsylvania?

can we please retire this cliche already?

Which cliche? "Republicans beat "New" Democrats again"?

I think Truman's words are more apt today than when he spoke them in light of a NeoDemocratic Party that has run from its great past and own constituents while mimicking the rhetoric and policies of the GOP and grovelling to swing voters who put image over substance.

by Sitkah 2006-08-05 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Is Casey gonna blow it in Pennsylvania?

no, using that quote endlessly.

by johnny longtorso 2006-08-06 06:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Is Casey gonna blow it in Pennsylvania?

Some Democrats obviously haven't gotten its message yet. I've bookmarked it -- so expect to see it a lot more.

by Sitkah 2006-08-06 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen Santorum Surging

It's unbelievable to me that Democrats keep putting out this Casey blows big leads canard. The only race Bob Casey ever lost statewide was to Rendell and that is because almost to man, the pundits outside of Philadelphia refused to believe Rendell's astonishing popularity in the city and its environs and how many people were going to come out in the primary to vote FOR Rendell. There was a major underestimation of turnout in Philadelphia proper as well as in the SE burbs. The election forecasters bought into the conventional wisdom that "no one from Philadelphia" could ever be elected governor and they'll be eating crow for a long time because of that.

As for Santorum's alledged "surge", ask yourself why the GOP put out 66k to try and get Romanelli on the ballot. It's because they KNOW Santorum cannot break the 50% barrier and a 3-way race, even one where the 3rd party gets only 1 or 2%
could give Santorum a win.

Despite what the MC touts about the Muhlenberg Poll, it's a minor poll in the state and doesn't
have the credibility of either the Keystone or the Quinnipiac Polls, both of whom publish their internal numbers unlike Muhlenberg.

Finally, keep in mind the MC fired a 30 year veteren reporter,who is gay, for appearing in a gay pride event where he was an honoree for his community involvement.

by phillydem 2006-08-05 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Poll up

The poll is up and it shows Casey 45 Santorum 39.

Santorum's number is stuck at 39 where it's been in just about every poll over the last 3 months. This despite 5M in ad buys. It looks like primarily what the ads did was move some voters into "undecided", but they will come back to Casey once he starts airing more of his own ads. I'd guess now Casey is running about 1 radio ad for every 2 or 3 of Santorum.

The real interesting number is the 4-5% who say they won't vote for either candidate. It's unclear just who these folks are but they are likely split between lefties who hate Casey and rw'ers who hate Santorum for supporting Specter over Toomey. Take those 4-5 pts away and this becomes a 48% election which is why Santorum and his GOP minions ponied
up the volunteers and the money to try and get
Romanelli on the ballot.

by phillydem 2006-08-06 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen Santorum Surging

I recently posted a diary about my observation that too much attention is being paid to the CT Senate race, while other important races are being put on the back burner.  The recent polling in PA that shows Santorum gaining ground is exactly what I am talking about.  It is so much more important, in my opinion, to knock out Santorum, Burns, Allen, Dewine, Ensign, Chafee (although I respect his independence from the GOP), than to replace a "pseudo Dem" with a "real Dem".  I believe we should be putting all of our time, money, and energy behind  taking back the House and Senate, not "party purification".  Just to clarify, I am a strong Lamont supporter and hope he does defeat Lieberman in the general election, but let the voters of CT decide.  We in the blogosphere need to focus on the bigger picture.

by ArizonaDem 2006-08-18 11:16AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads