I cannot believe you can't see through the obvious.
The Rethugs bought the polling process awhile back. There's no question that Rasmussen and other robo-polls have been skewing the narrative for two years now, and that immense propaganda anti-Obama buys, like the idiots above, have been polluting sites like this since 2008.
Extensive analysis has shown the sampling has been BOUGHT to skew Republican. Poll after poll is trying to sell us an electorate where every Teabagger and their filthy mother turns out, and 9 out of 10 Democrats stay hom, especially young people.
I'm not buying. I predict a 20-seat loss in the House, and maybe 5 seats in the Senate. I think Reid will win, I think Conway wins, I think Boxer wins, I think Murkowski and Crist win and turn against the new GOP who deserted them, I think Blumenthal, Coons, and Sstak win.
The GOP is going to be very surprised on Wed Nov 3, and we will still say MADAME SPEAKER.
It appears to me like the MSM and, of course, the New Right's lackeys like Rasmussen and FOX, have been driving the "Dems in Trouble" narrative for their own purposes.
Rasmussen was drafted to keep contributions flowing into Right-wing coffers in spite of the fact they had little to bring to the table in terms of legislative godies.
FOX has been driving wingnuts to Town Halls and TeaParty meetings since Obama took office.
When you look at the facts, when you take actual samples of Registered voters, I am seeing the Dem masses doing their usual post-Labor-Day wake-up, and all of a sudden Gallup sees a 10-point swing in generic Party voting in our favor.
We have to start to get to work. The same phone efforts, the same posting in public sites, the same canvassing and campaigning that got us iinto power, will keep us in power.
WEe donot need to be talking triage, or who's going down.
If we turn out, we win.
Simple. The GOPigs know it; the have been driving turnout for months with this ridiculous Socialist-debt-Muslim fearmongering, now we have to get people to realize that having GOPigs in power again will truly be a disaster of horrendous magnitudes for America.
I can understand funding and voting for drones like Barrow and Herseth in the heat and confusion and urgency of winning the Congress back.
We passed them a baton to carry, and if they dropped it or it became too hard to carry and almost cost us the track meet, why they need to be back on the bench reflecting on what an honor it is to get a chance to even be in the race, and what drive and sacrifices it takes to hold on to a bitterly-won lead.
The Democratic Party has no shortage of young, idealistic, energetic, dedicated, hard-working young Progressives. As older white Republicans fade, we need to press hard to regain Blue seats in places that have been turned red by corporate money.
We do this by building on our strength: our young. The inspiration and dedication Progressive ideals of caring, sharing, and fairness inspire in the hearts of of our young people have always been the source of our success.
Axelrod really should have known this, it's unforgivable. He IS the Media Consultant, for God's sake! I believe he was really taken by surprise at the entrenched rightward and GOP slant of the Media. I think he STILL believes there's a Lib'rul Media out there.
After the Rev. Wright debacle, where Obama's poll numbers went down so fast he was forced to go to Philly for the memorable "My-Grandmother-is-White" speech, Axelrod should have known that the Villagers like Broder, Quinn, Marcus, Dowd, Will, Timmeh, Dave, Tweety, and their ilk would NEVER counter the HateRadio-FOX smear machine, but would instead gleefully give the smears column space and airtime without any caveats or corrections, and thus help build and maintain the GOP narrative.
Ithappens every week: The GOP pushes out a smear, and they discuss it like it was true. Last week, it was Eric Holder and the Al-Qaeda 7 until even the Village realized the RIght had gone too far. This week, it's how Charlie Rangel and Patterson and Massa have sunk the Democratic Party.
Today, that same machine has successfully udermined everything the White House has tried to do. It has forced the White House to throw good people like Van Jones and Anita Dunn under the bus, it has forced the President to combat stupid brushfires like the Death Panels and the Socialist meme, it has forced the White House to spend a lot of Political Capital on nonsense and left it bereft of its megaphone.
WE HAVE NO MEGAPHONE.
That is the problem. NO MEGAPHONE.
Not Axe, not Obama, not Geithner, not Rahm.
WE HAVE NO MEGAPHONE.
The GOP has succeeded in slapping it out of the President's hand for all intents and serious purposes. When the GOP was tricked into giving the President a share of its Megaphone in Baltimore, when the GOP counted on the teleprompter nonsense to further damage the President, it got the surprise of its life. We got back the Megaphone, broefly, and the whole dynamic and narrative changed.
How do we win back the attention and respect of the American people, when the NY Times, the WaPo, Network News and every other major media avenue has been corrupted by the Right and is busy undermining everything we stand for?
I suggest the Internet and sites like Josh Marshall's, Markos Moulitsas' Crooks-n-Liars, ThinkProgress, and others like this one have been the main reason we won the Election in 2008, they are all we have to push OUR Narrative, and we better fight like rabid Wolverines to dominate this medium, and keep using these as our only Megaphone.
Already, FOXNation, HotAir, and POLITICO have been making inroads into our last media stronghold, and if I were Axe, I would immediately fund amply and appoint my strongest leadership to shoring this stronghold up, expanding it, and winning back the BIG Megaphone. Or we lose, maybe forever.
All the arguments above about how Obama's policies may or may not be Liberal or Progressive enough remind me of sheep milling around arguing about which is the right entrance to use into the pen, when the wolves have already begun to close the circle, and will soon close in and bar the door.
No one knows exactly what Rasmussen is polling, and Nate Silver has had several threads to that effect in trying to understand what is called the "Rasmussen House Effect" in the polling community.
We DO know the inclusion of his poll results are significantly affecting averages like Pollster's and RCP's. We DO know Rasmussen results do not match up well statisitically with the results of any pollster - and always, always, Rasmussen skews in the GOP's favor.
I don't doubt that Democrats will lose a few seats, the math and the history points in that direction, and no one will really be surprised if we lose 10 House seats and a handful of Senators.
What I DO doubt is that there is anywhere near a 50-50 chance that Democrats would lose either the Senate or the House.
There would have to be either a huge negative event that reflected poorly on Democrats, a Dem Katrina, or a huge shift in the country's mood to move Independent voters to pull the R lever in as many races as the Republicans would need to make that happen.
I feel the mood of the country shifting, all right, but to me it's shifting in Obama's direction.
Contrary to the right-wing storyline, Obama's poll numbers have been very stable for months, in spite of untold dollars spent trying to discredit and demonize him, and all those around him. Gallup and Ras both showed upticks after the Blair summit and this weekend.
Unemployment has stabilized and even dropped a couple tenths, jobs lost per month have all but stopped and are about to go positive, the DOW and NASDAQ are climbing steadily, the car companies are selling cars, banks are making profits again, corporations reporting better-than-expected Q4 earnings outnumber those reporting poor performance by a factor of over 100%.
The feeling of gloom and malaise in 2008 that followed Bush out of power is just not there, in my view, and who gets off a winning horse?
Democrats have to step up to the pundits and the talk shows and refuse to accept statements like Cook's, narratives that are self-fulfilling. Wet blankets are thrown to drown out enthusiasm and momentum, and that is exactly what Cook and Rasmussen supply and what Republicans need: A hushed, low-key, depressed, fearful Democratic Party afraid to stand up for its own values and fearful of Right-wing attack dogs and Teabaggin thugs in their home Districts.
I applaud Halter for standing up for Dem values in Arkansas, I applaud Gillebrand for beating back the DINO Ford with some Democratic Party moxie, I applaud Nancy Pelosi and the terrific job of leadership she is doing in giving Democrats like Weiner and Grayson and Nadler the microphone and letting them talk a little trash.
Cook is happiest when the Beltway pundits, consultants and operatives buy, nod sagely and quote his reports at staff and policy meetings. But this group LOVES the "Dems are on the way out because they are weak, feckless Mommy-staters" storyline; they've been addicted to that for over a generation, since they made their bones by destroying Jimmy Carter.
Charlie Cook could care less what we think and say here. We don't buy his reports.
Seems to me a large part of the alarm about the coming Dem losses can be traced directly back to command of narrative, Charlie. For whatever reason, the media always seem to feel that every turn if events is "bad for Democrats". The coverage shows it, the stories, the punditry, the analyses, the conclusions show it. The GOP has shown a remarkable ability to put their thumbs on the scales in Editorial suites across the media spectrum.
It is not so much about the candidates, the races, or the issues, but about the media only being focused on increasing their market share by playing to the most emotionally hot headlines.
I guess " Dems in trouble!!" sells papers and garners pageviews today, and seems to be the most likely direction for editors to go with that day's content.
Republicans will tell you they screamed much the same thing when Bush was being dragged down to 20% approval in 2008, and it isn't any easier for Dems like me to take it today when the shoe's on the other foot.
Looking forward, I think we have to wage a better, more focused, more organized war of words.
We have to give the editors some quality stories to write about that will help them sell more papers and gather more eyes, and will give us in return better stories about better Democrats that will help us swing races our way instead of giving them away to the opposition.
Paterson has not been a bad CHief Executive in his time in office. He has stood up strongly for Progressive values and fought good fights for good causes.
But he has shown himself to be politically tone-deaf, and in a Murdoch-controlled media market (NY Post, Wall Street Journal, NY Sun, WABC -770 flagship of HateRadio et. al.) he had no margin for error, even human error from the start.
He was going to waste a lot of good people's money in a Quixotic attempt at redemption, and he is making the right choice for himself and his extended family.
I won't say good riddance, because we are losing a Progressive champion and effective spokesman, but he's toast here.
When you give a 50-50 say to a 40-60 minority, you are not using your power on behalf of the people who gave you that majority.
We voted in a large majority, because we understood just how perniciously incompetent and morally bankrupt and despicable the Party of NO is, and what it does to our future as a people.
The President has given them every chance to do the right thing, Charles. That was the right thing to do. Now, we cannot afford to wait any longer, and I think the President knows this too.
Let's stop listening to tired tropes from Fixed Noise and Krauthammer about what a failure Obama is, OK? He has shown the country, indeed the world that you can get things done and you still keep yourself and your party on the high ground.
The only thing Neanderthals like McCotter, Pence, the 2 Kings, Wilson, Bachmann and others have proven is that America is finally seeing these folks for who they are. They are not patriots, feedom-fighters, or loyal noble opposition: They are simply desperate dirtbag politicians who long ago sold what little integrity they had for campaign donations to the highest bidder, mostly to the corporations.
Corporate money pays for Teabaggers, Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin, Hume, Kristol, Krauthammer, and every other figure desperate to tear the President down and kill the progressive agenda.
But curiously, America is not buying it. Gallup's daily tracker has shown us a very stable support level for Obama, and for Democrats. It's corporate-paid media whores like Rasmussen and FOX who have been succesful in painting the " Obama's in Trouble" "Obama's Weak" " Obama's Failing" pictures.
Let's not fall for them like we were ignorant FOX Republicans, OK?
I have found his leadership extraordinary. Almost singlehandedly, he has taken the mighty hammers of reason and justice and destroyed a host of Republican strongholds, memes, and beltway conventional wisdom hung around the necks of Democrats since Jimmy Carter singlehandedly emasculated the Democratic Party in the name of good will.
It has served to point out to us, his base, the infiltration of corporate money into our party which has forced borderline Democrats like Nelson, Conrad, Landrieu, Lieberman and others to show the world who's paid for their allegiance.
And the murdering bastard will feel for the rest of his stinking life that he did something worthwhile. And the anti-abortion wackos will carry his name in golden letters, and encourage other murdering bastards to follow his example as a righteous act..
There are times when I feel the only justice for those beyond rehabilitation or even just contrition for their criminal acts is an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth.
"Win them over" means finding a way to penetrate the thick flak of FOX noise and drop a reason-bomb on them.
It may take a new kind of media, it may take a new way of delivering a progressive message, but it can be done.
Why are YOU a Progressive? When you answer taht question, when you outline the clearand logicalpath to a shared destiny, to a shared responsibility that YOU'VE accepted, then we can find a place where we can stand on common ground.
There is nothing the Right-wing propganda meisters loathe more than Reason: It is absolutely the way to overcome and destroy the fear they feed on.
I saw the study results, and my first impression was "Well, DUH!!"
It became clear when the Dauphin W Bush was able to hoodwink Conservative America for TEN YEARS straight that a fortunate son of privilege, New Haven, Phillips, Yale, and Harvard was a brush-clearin' God-fearin' Stetson-wearing Texan.
These are simple-minded, faith-based, SCAAARED folks being played like cheap kazoos by masters like Murdoch, Ailes, Limbaugh, Hannity, and Beck.
The opinions, mindset, and worldview of these poor lemmings is EXACTLY what a day of programming on FOX and HateRadio has imprinted on them.
Barack and the White House Comm office have it right: These folks represent a sizable voting block, and MUST be fought for. I believe we have a lot in common with them, and we can win them over to progressive ideas, ideas that will help us move ALL America forward, not just Blue States.
It ain't a-gonna be easy, or quick, but it can be done.
Bull. The whole POINT of what this woman was doing was trying to get herself onto the National stage. If you look carefully, she is there behind the altercation with a video camera in hand, trying very hard to capture footage that can be used by ??? The people who instigated and sent her there.