Prominent Republicans Cannot Win Presidential Race

    This is an extraordinary situation; The top 4 Republicans cannot either win the nomination or win the general election.  
    McCain, with his new hawkish stances, cannot possibly hope to win the general election if Iraq is still an issue; and James Dobson said he would "under no circumstances" support McCain, so there is little hope of  him winning the primary, especially in such a crowded field.
    Guliani's only hope of winning the primary is that every other candidate splits the party just so thathe wins it with 20-30 percent support - exactly what he has now.  There is a small chance of a conservative 3rd party splitting the general - the Democrats wet dream - and a better chance of them boycotting the election.  Plus that entire sex-with-your-2nd-cousin thing is really weird.  Americans have a tendency to get hung up on those things. Whenever some moderate person is talking about Guliani, some liberal is going to speak up and say "Gosh, you know he had intercourse with his cousin?" Which will either leave them in a "Say it aint so!" situation, or have them trying to make it sound not as bad as it is, which will only make it worse. Being pro-choice and pro-civil union will eat him alive; there is no way that pundits like Coulter can support him after her personal rant against people who say they are pro-choice but against abortion.  Guliani can't win.
    Mitt Romney has little hope of winning the nomination, or the general.  I know its early, but the top three democrats statistically stomp him into the dust in preliminary polling.  He is a "flip-flopper" when it comes to abortion and gay rights, which primary opponents will roast him alive on.  And some prodestants who make up a big voting block in the primary beilieve that Mormonism is a cult, and thus do not respect his religious choices.  Unless Romney gets born again into an Evangelical, his presidential campaign is DOA.
    That leaves us with Newt.  Ah, Newt.  Reliable old Newt. Newtie, Newtie, Fresh and Fruity. He can win the primary.  Republicans will forgive his marital infidelity, but rivals could make an interesting issue over how he served his wife with a divorce while she was hospitalized with cancer.  They love him for trying to impeach Bill Clinton. He can't win the general, however; he is a generic Republican, a leftover piece of cold meatloaf from the 94 shift.  No matter how much mold you brush off, its the same old Newt.  Newt the Divider. Newt the Crybaby.  Newt the Ali G interviewee.  For Christ's sake, his name is Newt.
Hillary beats him, Edwards pounds him, and Obama makes it a race; but he still loses by a solid determinable margin.
    Out of these candidates, there is no one whom the christian right can support.  Everyone in the top 4 either cannot be trusted to support their policies, or has committed sin in the eyes of those who cast stones all too quickly (having a candidate being called a hypocrite adulterer/cousin-fucker isnt a good thing to have to run with). Watch out for a dark horse.  They will get the rights money and support, and can run away with the primary, and since they are a relative unknown, do not have the baggage that all these figures have.

Tags: gingrich, Guliani, mccain, Romney (all tags)


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