Clinton Coattails House seats-Fla, Mich, Oh, NY &NJ

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post's The Fix examined the vulnerability of Republican House seats in light of the Foster win of the Hastert seat.  

I would have pointed this out Monday, but being a New Yorker, the news was preoccupying.

"[Eighty] percent of the Republican open and Republican incumbent seats the DCCC is targeting this cycle have better democratic performances than Illinois 14," wrote committee communications director Jen Crider in the memo. "Forty out of the 50 seats the DCCC is targeting have Democratic performances of 45 percent or higher."


"Illinois' 14th district has a PVI score of R+5. A quick look at Cook's PVI ratings reveals that 53 Republican-held seats have a score more Democratic than that."

Cillizza decided to use the Cook PVI's of R+1 to R+5 to check out how many Republican seats would be vulnerable now that a seat like the Hastert seat had fallen. As noted there are 53, 22-26 of those 53 are in States Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama  carried.

So the first woman candidate for president, using the exact same argument the Obama people make re Senate seats, Hillary Clinton has very serious coattails.

So here are the seats that are in play.  Enjoy

Alabama's 3rd (R+4)
Arizona's 1st (R+2)

California's 24th (R+5)
California's 26th (R+4)
California's 45th (R+3)
California's 50th (R+5)

Florida's 5th (R+5)
Florida's 7th (R+4)
Florida's 8th (R+3)
Florida's 12th (R+5)
Florida's 13th (R+4)
Florida's 15th (R+4)
Florida's 18th (R+4)
Florida's 24th (R+3)
Florida's 25th (R+4)

Illinois' 6th (R+3)
Illinois' 11th (R+1)
Illinois' 13th (R+5)
Illinois' 16th (R+4)
Illinois' 8th (R+5)

Michigan's 4th (R+4)
Michigan's 6th (R+2)
Michigan's 7th (R+2)
Michigan's 8th (R+2)
Michigan's 10th (R+4)
Michigan's 11th (R+1)

Minnesota's 2nd (R+3)
Minnesota's 3rd (R+1)
Minnesota's 6th (R+5)

Missouri's 6th (R+5)

New Jersey's 4th (R+1)
New Jersey's 5th (R+4)
New Jersey's 7th (R+1)

New York's 26th (R+3)
New York's 29th (R+5)

North Carolina's 8th (R+3)

Ohio's 1st (R+1)
Ohio's 3rd (R+3)
Ohio's 12th (R+1)
Ohio's 14th (R+2)
Ohio's 15th (R+1)
Ohio's 16th (R+4)

Pennsylvania's 3rd (R+2)
Pennsylvania's 18th (R+2)

Virginia's 4th (R+5)
Virginia's 10th (R+5)
Virginia's 11th (R+1)

West Virginia's 2nd (R+5)

Wisconsin's 1st (R+2)
Wisconsin's 6th (R+5)

How many of these are really possible.  I know that the two in NY are very possible.

Tags: Cillizza, clinton, coattails, Cook PVI, the Fix, US House (all tags)



Re: Clinton Coattails House seats-Fla, Mich, Oh,

So a little bit less than half are in Hillary states, a little more than half are in Obama states. Even if it was true that a candidate's coattails were greater in states they won in the primary (hint: there's no evidence that suggests this is true), how is that an argument for Clinton?

by animated 2008-03-12 04:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Coattails House seats-Fla, Mich, Oh,

it certainly negates the talk that her on the top would be a curse for down-ticket democrats

by American1989 2008-03-12 04:09PM | 0 recs
Correction: She has 35, he has 16...

If you think this argument is invalid for Hillary Clinton then you think it is invalid for Barack Obama.
It's exactly the argument that is made for Barack Obama's coattails in red states where there are Senate contests

He won these states in the primaries...his voters will go to the will hers...but indeed as the vote in Texas showed hers are even more likely to vote down ballot than his are.

Indeed I think that is something that should be considered in every race...Just how likely are the Republicans and Independents who are his margin of victory to vote down ballot for other Democrats.  While the more Democratically identified voters who are Clinton partisans are more likely to vote down ballot.

By the way there are only 16 in Obama states.  And except for North Carolina,  my initial count was wrong there are 35 seats up in Clinton States.

by debcoop 2008-03-12 04:17PM | 0 recs


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