I said months ago that Arnold wouldn't run because he can't win a Republican primary. You're not reporting the most interesting numbers - Arnold v. Fiorina and local Asm. Chuck DeVore in the primary. Arnold, who has 150% name ID, gets 31% in that head-to-head-to-head.
That's pathetic. And he won't waste his legacy trying to win that. Furthermore, Fiorina was just diagnosed with breast cancer, and I'd be very surprised if she ran.
As I said the day he announced, Chuck DeVore will be the GOP candidate. And he'll lose 70-30.
Of course, the end combat troop withdrawal date of August 2010 is calibrated to kick off the midterms. We'll obviously see how that goes, but I see antiwar sentiment far stronger against escalation in Afghanistan than against a residual force with a hard end date in Iraq.
Yeah, so there's a little thing called the status of forces agreement, which mandates that even residual forces and contractors would have to leave by the end of 2011. And Obama has said he will abide by it. So everyone's preferred little residual forces game was canceled out by the Iraqis, who demanded a full withdrawal. In a sense it doesn't matter when combat troops go out, the full forces will have to leave by the end of 2011 to comply with the SOFA.
If Obama decides not to comply, I'll be out in the streets. Because that would be a deadly decision both for our troops still in Iraq with huge targets on their backs and for global cooperation. But so far, every indication is that he will comply.
Why nobody writing about Iraq understands that there's a signed bilateral agreement for total withdrawal by the end of 2011 is puzzling.
Um, Chuck DeVore has already wrapped up the endorsements of half the elected GOP officials in the state. He's going to win the primary. Arnold is currently delivering a budget with tax increases in them. He cannot win a closed GOP primary. The California GOP is more conservative than the Alabama GOP, arguably, especially on fiscal issues.
Arnold Schwarzenegger can't win a Republican primary. It's un-possible. Chuck DeVore, who is well-liked by California conservatives, has already announced, and Arnold won't be able to beat him. This is especially true, as he's about to raise taxes. The only chance that Arnold is in this race is if he runs as an independent, and in that case there simply aren't enough votes out there, given that DeVore would grab 20-30% of the hardcore vote.
When DeVore announced, Boxer clinched the seat. This one's over.
Honestly, if he decides to run I'm moving back in with my parents and filing to run against him. And I mean AGAINST HIM. I wouldn't have any platform other than "Chris Matthews cannot be allowed to become a United States Senator." I would be a one-man negative-raising machine.
There's nothing satisfactory about this. The subject is being tortured in an Iraqi prison as we speak, and the fallout absolutely has the potential to end any cease-fire being observed by the Sadrists. In unstable societies, a small spark can cause a lot of pain. There have already been demonstrations demanding his release, and if his torture is connected to the Maliki government you're going to have chaos.
I'd like to see anything remotely progressive in this "progressive plan." Hell, at least the Senate bill gets the production tax credits for renewables through. The core problem is expecting an economy based on pushing paper to work. The "progressive" bill does zip, zilch, zero to change that. I'm stunned at how pathetic it is.
Charlie is awesome. He is the POSTER BOY for this issue; someone who has actual intelligence gathering experience, understands the issue, and unlike most of the Congress... has actually read the bill.
One note, however - this is not the reddest district in California. It's the reddest one where we have a chance, but the Central Valley districts of Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes are redder. And the contours of CA-04 are changing for the better, too - a recent poll for the Brown campaign showed party self-ID almost even.
Brilliant idea. Oil companies hold leases on millions of acres of land and refuse to drill on them, so the answer is to drill more. Huh? Don't you get that they don't want to drill for anything, they just want the reserves on their balance sheet to raise their stock price? The capital expense of the drilling is more than the reward as opposed to having fields in reserve. Oil companies don't want to drill for more oil. They like it perfectly fine the way it is.