Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Pollster.com is out with analysis suggesting that by the fall of 2008, 25% of voters will only have mobiles, possibly making it more difficult to get accurate polling data. I was really surprised by the statistic that the number of cell phone only americans is increasing by over 20% every six months! If I decide not to study for my exam tomorrow I'll update with more in depth analysis. Until then, enjoy!

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone s_and_political_surv.php

Tags: cell phones, polls, turnout (all tags)



Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

This is good news for Obama because his young voters are more likely to be the "mobilephone-only" voters while adult will have a landline phone eventhough they may also have a cellphone.

Obama will need to turn out his myspace,youtube,facebook supporters and his new mobiletext program is crucial because this is how you get in touch with those potential young voters.

by JaeHood 2007-07-03 01:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

That's why we keep saying polls don't matter. I personally, only use polls when someone claims Obama can't win the South. I show them South Carolina. But for the most part, it's voter turnout and we all know who really has that support. First, the doubters were saying the Youth wont vote. Then, when we showed that the Youth do vote and their political clout has been growing based on the last few elections , they say, well, donors don't necessarily vote. Money don't always count. That's the most desperate and retarded argument I have ever heard, but they use it nonetheless.

by BlueDiamond 2007-07-03 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

What you just said is that you don't use polls unless they support your preexisting ideas.

by Pope Jeremy 2007-07-03 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Whatever. I'm not going to argue with you. I have to forward this great news to others.

My Space, Face Book, etc. Mamas going DOWN!


by BlueDiamond 2007-07-03 02:32PM | 0 recs
Actually it's bad news for Obama

since it means that his supporters aren't included in the polls and the Hillary = inevitable meme is perpetuated.

by Populism2008 2007-07-03 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Actually it's bad news for Obama

No, it further galvanizes us because now we have proof. I just sent this to the ORRT. It's going out to everyone.

He He !

This is GREAT News. It confirms what we already knew. Now, we just have the proof is all.

by BlueDiamond 2007-07-03 02:25PM | 0 recs
This is interesting,

because remember not only cell phone, but anyone with internet phone are not in this skew, also.  These vonage internet phones, etc., are not landlines and unless the pollster have your number you are not contacted.  By 2008, more folk will be landline-less.  And I am an "adult" we have a cell only household.  And you will be surprised how many do, too.

by icebergslim 2007-07-03 01:25PM | 0 recs
Re: This is interesting,


In others words, Barack Obamas Base. Those who answered " No one in particular" know this as well. They just don't want to admit it.


This makes me even more optimistic because I know the polls don't mean "jack" pun intended.....It's all about the turnout.

by BlueDiamond 2007-07-03 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Oh brother.  In 2006 Republicans were convinced that all polls were wrong when they predicted that the GOP would lose massively in the House and Senate because "cell phones" are supposedly more common with Republicans.   They stuck to that chosen theme until reality had a way of confirming the polls.    Now we have this theme that cell-phone users are more concentrated with Obama leaning voters?    

by georgep 2007-07-03 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Even that 'boy genius' was cooking that magic formula of hitting  '1', '2' targets.I recall freeper land was so pumped by a 'scientology' type of article on his 'internal polls'.

by areyouready 2007-07-03 02:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

George, it is feeling in the air out there.  We felt it for November, 2006, it was there.  That is the difference.  Polls for me, too early, I have stated this repeatedly.  But, you can not discredit the validity of cell phone users.  Many think just the young, well, I am cell only house.  My sister and kids, cell only house.  My co-worker who is supporting Obama is vonage and cell phone only.  And if you are looking upwards ro 25%, that is a lot of people.  And when you look at the haul Obama just brought in, where did that come from?  I mean, I was expecting Hillary and I stated so on this board.  I was not expecting Obama with 32.5, NOT.  So, again who are these people and WHERE ARE THEY AT?  Yes, polling is still valid, but how valid?  And for any election, turnout is key.  If you don't have that, forget polls, phones and everything ELSE.

by icebergslim 2007-07-03 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

EVERYBODY I know who supports Clinton has a cell phone.  I think it is a safe bet to assume that virtually everybody has a cell phone today.  

As for young voters, the MTV/NYT/CBS poll showed that 29% of 18 to 29 year old who are voting Democratic is "enthusiastic" about Clinton.  Obama's share of "enthusiastic" voters in that age group is 23%.   What that means is that right now Clinton gets a larger share of the demographic you are speaking of here.   What that also means is that the "cell phone" issue discussed here means good news for Clinton.

by georgep 2007-07-03 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Give it up Wolfson.

by BlueDiamond 2007-07-03 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

George, we are talking about cell phones ONLY.  Do you live in a house with cell phone ONLY or an internet phone ONLY?  Big difference.  My home is cell phone only and I know many others, like this.  And please with your polls, if you are in the "Clinton" group, I can gurantee you have a "landline".  Remember, pollsters poll LANDLINE users not cell or internet phone users.  And give it up with the polls, you are so obsessed.  There is life beyond this board.  I am going to meet my girls and get my 'tini, on...HOLLA...

by icebergslim 2007-07-03 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Yes, my household is cell phone and Internet phone only.  I use Sunrocket Internet phone, not Vonage, though.  Many people I know in my age group have discovered Internet phone, in fact a vast majority of people in my circle of friends have moved to either cell phone only or a combination of Internet phone (i.e. from their cable company or independent like Vonage, Sunrocket, Viatalk.)    

And, as discussed, Obama does not have the youth demographic locked up.  He is closer than in other demogroups, but Clinton still leads there as well.  If that age group is the undiscovered poll treasure, then it gives Clinton as much on that claim of extra votes that "escape polls"  as anyone.  

by georgep 2007-07-03 04:13PM | 0 recs

Honestly, I only have a cell phone where I can be reached- I don't have a landline- so here are two Hillary supporters right here who don't have it.

by reasonwarrior 2007-07-03 08:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

98% of republicans who have cellphones, and the number was quite high, (in the last survey i saw on this subject) had landlines, too.  i don't know what that gets you, but...

by bored now 2007-07-04 09:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

Speaking as a cell phone only voter, I've basically seen that every single person on the losing end of an election in, like, the last four years-- Kerry, Lamont, the Republicans in 2006-- tried to explain away their poor poll showings by claiming that cell phone only voters were skewing their numbers. In each case, the cell phone effect did not prevent the polls from being right, and the person in question lost.

I expect someday cell phones will become prevalent to the point where it legitimately effects the efficacy of polling. But until that day actually comes, the cell phone effect just seems to be a way of distracting people from embarrassing polls.

by Silent sound 2007-07-03 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Pollster.com Looks at Cellphone Only Voters

I agree with this also.  And again, poll, cells, nothing means anything if people do not go to vote.  Period.

by icebergslim 2007-07-03 03:07PM | 0 recs
Let's be clear

I didn't post this so that we could have another "Obama's better!", "NO! Hillary's better" virtual shouting match. I think the link is really interesting and I personally believe that if the electorate will be a quarter cell-phone only, that pollsters will have to change their tactics dramatically. Pollster.com says that there was no significant difference between the voting patterns of 18-29 yr. olds with landlines or without. This, I think may change, as I know that college kids tend to be landlineless and they definitely vote differently from people in their age group who aren't enrolled in school. It's true though, that as the percentage gets larger (20% increase every six months!) the population will begin to resemble the general public. I'd like to see a comparison between cell-phone only voters in general and 18-29 yr. olds as opposed to the 18-29 yr. old w/landline and w/o landline presented in the blog.  Oh well.

by ctnewbie18 2007-07-03 04:31PM | 0 recs


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