The 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates are similar to the 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidates.
Hillary-2008 and Kerry 2004 were both establishment front runners- Media declared them as experienced and electable.
Obama-2008 and Edwards-2004 were the fresh face warm personality/charisma candidates- Superficially Inexperienced but Public loved Them.
Edwards-2008 and Dean-2004 were message candidates. Both appealed to activist base in the Democratic Party due to their strong messages. Iraq,Civil Rights and Liberties and Economic Justice and Fairness.
Richardson,Biden,Dodd- 2008 and Clark,Gephardt,Graham-2004- Experienced candidate. Strong Second Tier status. Possible VP slot.
Kucinich- Gravel- 2008- Kucinich- Sharpton and Moseley Braun- 2004- November Does Not Count.
Gore-2008 is the Draft Candidate- Clark-2004.
Gore is the candidate for those who question Hillary's ability to win in November 2008.
Obama and Edwards lack of experience.
Richardson's lack of charisma.
Biden and Dodd's beltway insider liability.
Imus termination is going to encourage hatred and bigotry ie the (Athiest taking away god in the pledge of the allegience. Courts on behalf of gays ruling that Gays can get married or sodomized each other.
Majority of the blue collar white voters who are economically liberal but socially moderate and a red neck below the mason-dixon line will be segregating themselves from blacks.
Chester Trent Lott was right when he said had the rest of the nation supported Strom Thurmond's 1948 Presidential bid in 1948 we would not been having these problems as we are having right now.
I say that we free David Duke.
Lousiana and South Dakota are two vulnerable Democratic held Senate Seats up for grabs.
Out of the two- South Dakota is likely to remain in Democratic column
In South Dakota- Their are plenty of top tier candidates on the Democratic side suppose Tim johnson decides to retire. (Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin. Tom Daschle. The only top tier candidate on the Republican side is Mike Rounds.
In Louisiana- The race is difficult to predict.
With regards to the vulnerable Republican seats.
The likely Democratic pickups
1) Colorado-(open-Allard)- Udall(D)defeats the likely GOP challenger- Bob Schaffer(R).
The vulnerable Republican seats that will go either way
1)Minnesota(Coleman) and New Hampshire(Sununu)-
DSCC involvement in Primary is needed in Minnesota and New Hampshire-
Minnesota(Ciresi prefered candidate)
New Hampshire(Marchand prefered candidate)
The surpise/potential defeats
Maine,New Mexico,North Carolina,Oregon.
Regarding the 1994 REP Freshman class. The remaining members are- elected in 1994 and served continuously
All of the Blue(Kerry)District Freshman Democrats who won Republican Held House Districts will be re-elected in 2008
plus Democratic Freshmans who won by a double digit margin
Other Democratic Freshmans that would get re-elected
IL-1)The northern portion of IL-1(from Evergreen Park to Lake Michigan boarder)is detached. Biggert(IL-13)SW Cook County Base and NW Will County Base is attached to IL-1. The proposed IL-1 will be a 73% Kerry District. (Rush-D) Solid Democratic.
IL-2) The eastern portion of IL-2(Lansing,Calumet City-toward the Lake Michigan boarder)is detached. The Northwestern Will County(Joliet)which is currently in IL-11 is attached to IL-2. The proposed IL-2 will be a 74% Kerry District. (Jackson-D) Solid Democratic.
IL-3) The northern portion of IL-3(Brookfield and Berwyn to Lake Michigan boarder gets detached. The Southeast portion of IL-7 and the Northern portion of IL-1 gets attached to IL-3. The proposed IL-3 will be a 64% Kerry District. (Lipinski-D???) Solid Democratic.
IL-4. The western portion of IL-4. (Stone Park,-to DuPage County Boarder is detached. The inner eastern portion of IL-7 will be attached to IL-4. The proposed IL-4 will be a 74% Kerry District. (Guitteriez-D)- Solid Democratic.
IL-5. The western portion of IL-5(Northlake,Melrose Park,Schiller Park,Franklin Park,River Grove,Elmwood Park)gets detached. Area north of Route 14 is also detached. The Southeastern portion of IL-9, The eastern portion of IL-7 and the Northeasten portion of IL-3 is attached to IL-5. The proposed IL-5 will be a 62% Kerry District. (Emanuel-D)- Solid Democratic.
IL-6. The southern portion of IL-6(including Wheaton(Roskam's home)Lombard and Elmhurst)is detached. The western portion of IL-5 is attached to IL-6. The proposed IL-6 will be a 57% Kerry District. (Cegelis-D or Duckworth-D)- Democratic Favored.
IL-7- The eastern portion of IL-7 is detached. The western portion of IL-4 and the Southern portion of IL-6 is attached to IL-7. The proposed IL-7 will be a 73% Kerry District. (Davis-D). Solid Democratic.
IL-8- Eastern McHenry CO and Northeast Lake County- Zion-(Wisconsin boarder)is detached. (Hastert(IL-14)-Northern Kane CO base and Western portion of Kirk(IL-10)Cook County Base- Buffalo Grove and Arlington Heights is attached to IL-8. The proposed IL-8 will be a 52% Kerry District. (Bean-D). Solid Democratic.
IL-9- The western portion of IL-9(Des Plains,Niles,and Park Ridge)and the southeast portion of IL-9 is detached. Kirk(IL-10)Eastern Lake and Cook County Base(Waukegan,North Chicago,and Highland Park)and Emanuel(IL-5)Northern Chicago base is attached to IL-9. The proposed IL-9 will be a 63% Kerry District. (Shakowsky-D). Solid Democratic.
IL-10- Eastern Lake and Cook CO and Western Cook CO are detached. The Northeast Lake County(IL-8)-Wisconsin boarder and Western portion of IL-9 is attached to IL-10. The proposed IL-10 will be a 58% Kerry District. (Seals-D)- Democratic Favored.
IL-11- Weller(IL-11)base in Woodford and McLean is detached. and NW Will County base is detached. Northern LaSalle CO is detached. The eastern portion of IL-2, Lahood(IL-18)-Bureau and Putnam CO. base and Hastert(IL-14)-South Kendall CO base including Hastert's home)is attached to IL-11. The proposed IL-11 will be a 51% Kerry District. (Weller(R)vs Hastert(R) vs Pavich-D)- Leans Democratic.
IL-12- No Change- 52% Kerry District.(Costello-D)- Solid Democratic
IL-13- NW Will County and SW Cook County is detached. The Northern Portion of IL-3 is attached to IL-13. The proposed IL-13 will be a 55% Kerry District. (Biggert-R)will be the incumbent- however she will be the underdog ie Morella(MD),Johnson(CT). Leans Democratic.
IL-14- Northern Kane COunty and Southern Kendell COunty is detached. Northern LaSalle(IL-11) and Northern DeKalb CO(IL-16)is attached to IL-14. The proposed IL-14 will be a 51% Kerry District. (Most of Hastert(IL-14)Constituency is in IL-14). A Democrat will have an advantage in an open seat election. Leans Democratic.
IL-15- Remains the same- 41% Kerry District. (Johnson-R)- Solid Republican
IL-16- Northern DeKalb CO is detached Eastern McHenry CO(IL-8)is attached. The proposed IL-16 will be a 39% Kerry District (Manzullo-R) Solid Democratic.
IL-17- Remains the same- 51% Kerry District(Hare-D) Solid Democratic.
IL-18- Putnam and Bureau CO are detached. IL-11(Woodford and McLean CO base are attached. (The proposed IL-18 will be a 42% Kerry District( Lahood-R)- Solid Republican
IL-19- Remains the same- 39% Kerry District (Shimkus-R)- Solid Republican.
IL-1- The northern portion of IL-1 gets detached. IL-1 gets SW Cook County Suburbs(IL-13) and NW Will County(IL-13). The proposed IL-1 will be a 73% Kerry District.
IL-13 - loses SW Cook County and NW Will County to IL-1 but gains the Western portion of IL-3(Western Cook County Burbs)-including Lipinski's home. Roskam's Wheaton home also gets added to IL-13. The proposed IL-13 will be a 52% Kerry District. A Conservative Democrat like Dan Lipinski will have an advantage in such district like IL-13. (Lipinski(D)vs (Biggert(R)vs Roskam(R)
IL-3- moves East covering Northern portion of IL- The proposed IL-3 will be a 62% Kerry District.
IL-2- The Eastern portion of IL-2 gets detached but gains NW Will County (IL-11)base. including Joliet. The proposed IL-2 will be a 74% Kerry District.
IL-11- Loses the NW portion Will County Base but gains Eastern portion IL-2 Southside Chicago base. IL-11 will also lose Northern LaSalle County to IL-14 and gain Southern Kendell County(including Hastert's home. The proposed IL-11 will be a 51% Kerry District. (Hastert(R)vs Weller(R)primary matchup)- favor Weller. who ever wins will be will be the underdog in the Novermber General Election.
IL-4- The western portion of IL-4(boarder's DuPage County)- connects Northern and Southern Chicago base is gone- The connecter moves East. The proposed IL-4 will be a 74% Kerry District.
IL-7- The eastern portion of IL-7 gets detached. The district moves west to DuPage County covering the Southern portion of IL-6 DuPage county base- The proposed IL-7 will be a 73% Kerry District.
IL-6- The southern portion of IL-6 DuPage County base gets detached including Roskam's home Wheaton. IL-6 gains the western portion of IL-5 North Chicago base. The proposed IL-6 will be a 57% Kerry District.
IL-5- The western portion of IL-5 gets detached and goes to IL-6. IL-5 gains the eastern portion of IL-7. The proposed IL-5 will be a 72% Democratic district. Emanuel- a DLC Democrat can either run in the new IL-5 or the new IL-6.
IL-8- Eastern McHenry County gets detached- Gains Northern Kane County from IL-14. IL-8 will also lose the Northeastern part of Lake County to IL-10 but gain IL-10(NW Cook County base). The proposed IL-8 will be a 52% Kerry District.
IL- 10 The IL-10 moves up North toward the Wisconsin boarder. IL-10(Eastern Lake and Cook County County base gets detached including Kirk's home-)- but gains the Western portion of IL-9 Northern Chicago Suburbs. The proposed IL-10 will be a 58% Kerry District. (This is a new district created for Dan Seals.
IL-9. The western portion of IL-9 goes to IL-10. IL-9 gains the Eastern portion of Cook and Lake County(IL-10.)- The proposed IL-9 will be a 59% Kerry District. (Shakowsky(D) vs Kirk(R)- Shackowsky favored.
IL-12 remains unchanged. 52% Kerry District.
IL-14 loses Northern Kane County but gains Northern DeKalb county from IL-16. IL-14 will lose (Hastert's home in Kendell County to IL-11) but gain Northern LaSalle County. The proposed IL-14 will be a 51% Kerry District. This will be a new District.
IL-16 gains Eastern McHenry- the proposed IL-16 will be a 39% Kerry District-
My Illinios Redistricting proposal will do the following things-
1)Give Mellisa Bean(IL-8) a safer seat.
2)Defeat- Roskam(IL-6),Kirk(IL-10),and Weller(IL-11).
2)Create Democratic leaning seats for Biggert(IL-13) and Hastert(IL-14).
1)IL-1(Rush-D)-(83% Kerry)- Detach Chicago area neighborhoods in Oak Forest and Tinley Park. Add Oak Lawn and Paolo Hills which is currently in IL-3. The proposed IL-1 will be a 78% Kerry District.
2)IL-2(Jackson-D)-(84% Kerry)- Detach Chicago Heights. Add Joliet(Will County)- which is currently in IL-11. The proposed IL-2 will be a 79% Kerry District.
3)IL-3(Lipinski-D)-(59% Kerry)- IL-3 loses Oak Lawn and Paolo Hills to IL-1 but gains Westmont and Woodbridge(DuPage County) which is located in IL-13. The proposed IL-3 will be a 57% Kerry District.
5)IL-5 (Emanuel-D) (67% Kerry)- Detach Chicago Area neighborhoods in Schiller Park and Franklin Park. Add Elmhurst and Lombard(DuPage County) which is currently in IL-6. The proposed IL-5 will be 62% Kerry District.
6)IL-6(Roskam-R) (47% Kerry)- IL-6 loses Elmhurst and Lombard to IL-5 but gains Schiller Park and Franklin Park from IL-5. I will also detach Roskam's hometown Wheaton and add Downer's Grove(DuPage County) which is currently in IL-13. The proposed IL-6 will be 52% Kerry District. Roskam will be an underdog in the November General Election campaign to either Cegelis or Duckworth due to a conservative voting record.
7)IL-7(Davis-D) (83% Kerry)- Remains unchanged.
8)IL-8(Bean-D) (44% Kerry) - Detach Eastern McHenry County and add Northern Kane County including Carpentersville and Elgin which is currently in IL-14. The proposed IL-8 will be a 47% Kerry District.
9)IL-9(Schakowsky-D)(68% Kerry)- Detach Chicago Area neighboorhoods in Park Ridge Des Plaines and Niles. Add Glenview, NorthBrook, and Highland Park(Lake County)-which is currently in IL-10. North Chicago and Waukegan will also be added to IL-9 The proposed IL-9 will be a 63% Kerry District- Current IL-10 Rep Mark Kirk home will be in the new IL-9.
10)IL-10(Kirk-R)(53% Kerry)- IL-10 loses the Eastern portion of its Lake County and Cook County base with the exception of Wilmette(Dan Seals hometown).to IL-9 but gains Des Plains,Niles,and Park Ridge. The proposed IL-10 will be a 58% Kerry District- The new IL-10 will be created for Dan Seals.
11)IL-11(Weller-R)(46% Kerry)- IL-11 loses Joliet(Will County) to IL-2 but gains Chicago Heights(Cook County from IL-2. IL-11 will also lose its McLean and Woodford County base to IL-18 but gains Putnam and Bureau County. The proposed IL-11 will be a 52% Kerry District. Weller who was re-elected in 2006 with 55% against John Pavich will be the underdog in the November General Election.
13)IL-13(Biggert-R)(45% Kerry)- IL-13 loses Westmont and Woodbrige(DuPage County)to IL-3 and Downers Grove to IL-6. but gains Oak Forest and Tinley Park from IL-1 and Wheaton(IL-6-Roskam's home town). The proposed IL-13 will be 52% Kerry District. A competive GOP primary between Roskam vs Biggert plus a Democratic advantage in this district will give the generic Democratic nominee the advantage.
14)IL-14(Hastert-R)(44% Kerry)- IL-14 loses Northern Kane County to IL-8 but gains Northern DeKalb County from IL-16. The proposed IL-14 will be a 46% Kerry District.
16)IL- 16(Manzullo-R)(44% Kerry)- IL-16 loses Northern DeKalb County to IL-14 but gains Eastern McHenry County. The proposed IL-16 will be a 39% Kerry District.
17)IL-17(Hare-D) (51% Kerry)- remains unchanged.
18)IL-18(Lahood-R)(42% Kerry) loses Putnam County to IL-11 but gains McLean and Woodford from IL-11. The proposed IL-18 will be a 41% Kerry District.
19)IL-19(Shimkus-R)(39% Kerry) remains unchanged.
Bean(IL-8)will be safer.
Roskam(IL-6)and Biggert(IL-13)will be placed in the same district- they will have to face each other in the primary- who ever wins will be the underdog in the November General election in a new District that is 52% Kerry District.
Kirk(IL-10)hometown will be in IL-9 he will be the underdog to either Shakowsky or Seals.
Weller(IL-11) will represent a Democratic leaning District.
A new District will be created for Cegelis/Duckworth- Northern Dupage County.
Hastert district will be slightly less Republicans just so Democrats can be competitive once the seat opens.ie IL-8(Bean)-
IL-15,IL-16,IL-18,and IL-19 will be Safe Republican seats.
Here is my congressional redistricting plan in Illinios.
The first goal is to give Mellissa Bean(IL-8)a safer district. The current IL-8 which is a 44% Kerry District- includes Eastern McHenry Co.- a Red County, Northwest Cook County- Blue County and Northern and Western Lake County- Purple County. I will give Mellissa Bean(IL-8) all of Lake County which also includes Mark Kirk(IL-10) political base and portions of Bean(IL-8)- Northwest Cook County base including Bean's home in Barrington. The rest of IL-8 (NW Cook County) goes to IL-6(Roskam). and McHenry goes to IL-16(Manzullo). Mark Kirk(IL-10) home will be in IL-8. The new IL-8 will be a 51% Kerry District.
The remaing area of IL-10(Northern Cook County)gets combined with the Western Part of Jan Shakowsky(IL-9)including Park Ridge. This district will be created for Dan Seals. The new IL-10 will be a 58% Kerry District.
The Eastern Part of IL-9 including Shakowsky's home gets combined with the Eastern Portion of Rahm Emanuel's IL-5. The new IL-9 will be a 63% Kerry District.
The Western Part of IL-5 including Emanuel's home gets combined with the Southern portion or Roskam(IL-6) DuPage County base including Roskam's home in Wheaton IL. The new IL-5 will be a 62% Kerry District.
The new IL-6 which will include Northern DuPage County and Northwest Cook County will be a 52% Kerry District. Whoever wins the competive Democratic Primary in that district- Cegelis or Duckworth will be favored in the November General Election.
Biggert(IL-13) gets dismantled. Dupage County gets combined with Northern Part of Dan Lipinski(IL-3). Lipinski and Biggert's home will be in the new IL-3 will be a 54% Kerry District. Biggert's Cook County base gets combined with the Southern part of Bobby Rush(IL-1)Southside Chicago base. The new IL-1 will be a 75% Kerry District. Biggert's Will County Base gets added to Jerry Weller(IL-11). The new IL-13 will consist of the Northern part of IL-1 and the Southern Part of IL-3. The new IL-13 will be a 70% Kerry District.
Outside of Chicago-
Manzullo(IL-16) gets McHenry and Lee County but loses his DeKalb and Whiteside County Base. Two new District get created.
One district consist of Peoria,Knox,Henry,Bureau,Whiteside,Putna
m and La Salle. The other district will consist of DeKalb,Kane,Kendell,Grundy Will and Kankakee. This district will include both Weller and Hastert's home. We also will add large minority areas of JJJ(IL-2)Southside Chicago base.
IL-18(Lahood)- gets eliminated. The northen Part of IL-18 goes to IL-15 and the Southern Part goes to IL-19.
IL-1 75% Kerry District- (Rush-D)
IL-2 80% Kerry District- (Jackson-D)
IL-3 55% Kerry District- (Lipinski-D vs Biggert-R)
IL-4 80% Kerry District- (Guitteriz-D)
IL-5 60% Kerry District- (Emanuel-D vs Roskam-R)
IL-6 50% Kerry District- (new District- Cegelis-D)
IL-7 85% Kerry District- (Davis-D)
IL-8 50% Kerry District- (Bean-D vs Kirk-R)
IL-9 65% Kerry District- (Shackowsky-D)
IL-10 55% Kerry District- (new District- Seals-D)
IL-11 50% Kerry District (Weller-R vs Hastert-R)
IL-12 55% Kerry District- (Costello-D)
IL-13 70% Kerry Distict- (new District-CBC)
IL-14 50% Kerry District (new District)
IL-15 40% Kerry District (Johnson-R)
IL-16 40% Kerry District (Manzullo-R)
IL-17 55% Kerry District- (Hare-D)
IL-18 40% Kerry District (Lahood-R vs Shimkus-R)