by ChrisR, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:55:51 PM EST
OK, it might bring yelling and screaming from both sides (really), but it looks like a split narrative.
Obama wins more states, Hillary wins the bigger ones. It is possible (although I have no advanced math degree) that Obama might even win more delegates by the end of the evening. Remember, he piled up numbers in the smaller caucus states and IL and GA while keeping the delegate margin relatively managable in the larger states. Just a guess, but Obama doesn't get blown out and very well could win more delegates. And yes, it might be unfair and undemocratic and all that, but if Obama wins more states and delegates, Sen. Clinton is in massive trouble. Chuck Todd's projection right now (including NM and CA): Obama 841, HRC 837.
Hillary has less money.
February 9th leads to Washington Caucuses (a caucus state in which Obama leads by double digits by SUSA's latest poll), Louisiana (probable Obama win), Nebraska (he's got a good shot there with Nelson).
February 12th gives us MD (Obama lead before the last two weeks), DC (obama) and VA (I don't know, honestly, but this seems HRC's best shot).
February 19th is Wisconsin. Obama's favored there, it appears. Hawaii? One of seven home states for Obama.
Guys, that's eight primaries or caucuses before OH and TX. She can't blow these off and she can't lose all eight or even seven. That's the Rudy strategy. Obama can compete in all eight.
Where does she go? I'm serious -- I'm not being snarky. And keep in mind that it is very possible that she has to be careful about resources as hers is more limited than Obama's.
To me, she has to do three things:
1) Beg, yell, plead and scream for debates.
2) Yell and scream about Michigan and Florida. Point out superdelegates (she's going to get a bunch from California now)
3) Hope and pray Edwards and Gore don't endorse. I'm serious. That can change everything -- and for those who didn't think Ted Kennedy's endorsement mattered, remember that Obama was WAY down in most of these states before it occurred.