What Now?

OK, it might bring yelling and screaming from both sides (really), but it looks like a split narrative.

Obama wins more states, Hillary wins the bigger ones.  It is possible (although I have no advanced math degree) that Obama might even win more delegates by the end of the evening.  Remember, he piled up numbers in the smaller caucus states and IL and GA while keeping the delegate margin relatively managable in the larger states.  Just a guess, but Obama doesn't get blown out and very well could win more delegates.  And yes, it might be unfair and undemocratic and all that, but if Obama wins more states and delegates, Sen. Clinton is in massive trouble.  Chuck Todd's projection right now (including NM and CA):  Obama 841, HRC 837.  

What's Next?

Hillary has less money.

February 9th leads to Washington Caucuses (a caucus state in which Obama leads by double digits by SUSA's latest poll), Louisiana (probable Obama win), Nebraska (he's got a good shot there with Nelson).

February 12th gives us MD (Obama lead before the last two weeks), DC (obama) and VA (I don't know, honestly, but this seems HRC's best shot).

February 19th is Wisconsin.  Obama's favored there, it appears.  Hawaii?  One of seven home states for Obama.

Guys, that's eight primaries or caucuses before OH and TX.  She can't blow these off and she can't lose all eight or even seven.  That's the Rudy strategy.  Obama can compete in all eight.

Where does she go?  I'm serious -- I'm not being snarky.  And keep in mind that it is very possible that she has to be careful about resources as hers is more limited than Obama's.

To me, she has to do three things:

1)  Beg, yell, plead and scream for debates.

2)  Yell and scream about Michigan and Florida.  Point out superdelegates (she's going to get a bunch from California now)

3)  Hope and pray Edwards and Gore don't endorse.  I'm serious.  That can change everything -- and for those who didn't think Ted Kennedy's endorsement mattered, remember that Obama was WAY down in most of these states before it occurred.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

Re: What Now?

So far, CNN says Hillary has more delegates- 450- 362.  And it looks like she will win New Mexico.  It looks like Hillary is winning pretty big and all over the place in California so it seems she will have more delegates- but don't worry too much about that- Obama could still win the nomination, so I don't think much has been decided tonight.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-05 08:02PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

Re-reading your diary, I realize how bitchy you are being to Clinton, I apologize for being so civil and telling you not to worry- you SHOULD worry- Obama is going to LOSE.

by reasonwarrior 2008-02-05 08:03PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

How?

I'm not being snarky.  If the narrative is even after tonight and Obama is on friendly terrain with more money, where does Hillary go?

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 08:13PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

Let's face it: We're doomed to drag this thing out to the point of absurdity.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 08:03PM | 0 recs
off-topic

what was that post you said I never replied to?

I didn't see it on whatever thread where you posted it.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-05 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: off-topic

Oh yeah, I forgot.  We were talking about the Iowa Caucus and you posted that quote about Obama going after the former Iowa Democratic Chair so aggressively.

I used to live in Linn County, and I am still SHOCKED that Eastern Iowa went so strongly for Obama.  I mean Johnson County, yeah.  Maybe the town of Ames itself too, but didn't the whole thing just seem weird to you?  I thought Edwards would win.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 08:08PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

And she should bitch about the press.  Seriously -- their surrogates (but not her and certainly not him) should complain -- loudly -- about the press.

I think the press is going to go through a zeitgeist shift and realize that they've given too little critical attention to Obama.  Ask about specifics.  Ask for as many debates as possible.

I'm an Obama supporter, but if I'm in her campaign's shoes, that's what I would do.  This isn't concern trolling or whatever:  the press is ready to make that a narrative.

by ChrisR 2008-02-05 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

Well said.

by ejintx 2008-02-05 08:35PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

How do you interview smoke and mirrors?

Obama why did Rezco pay over $600,000 to buy a empty lot so that you could buy your dream house?

What was in it for him?

Why did he sell 1/6 back to you at cost?

by sonofdonkeykong 2008-02-05 10:08PM | 0 recs
Re: What Now?

Hey, I want a strong Democratic nominee.  Let's vet him now.  And I support him.

by ChrisR 2008-02-06 04:50AM | 0 recs

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