Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

This is NOT a POLL, it is the ACTUAL votes in a mock election being held at the Johnson County Fair, Johnson County Auditor Tom Slockett said today(July 26, 2007).

DEMOCRATS (474 total votes)

Barack Obama: 163
Hillary Clinton: 115
John Edwards: 82
Bill Richardson: 56
Uncommitted: 21
Al Gore: 12
Dennis Kucinich: 11
Joe Biden: 9
Chris Dodd: 3
Mike Gravel: 1
Over vote: 1

REPUBLICANS (158 total votes)

Mitt Romney: 48
Rudy Giuliani: 26
Fred Thompson: 13
Uncommitted: 12
John McCain: 11
Sam Brownback: 10
Mike Huckabee: 8
Newt Gingrich: 6
Ron Paul: 6
Tom Tancredo: 6
Tommy Thompson: 6
Duncan Hunter: 2
Under vote (no target marked): 2
Chuck Hagel: 1
George Pataki: 1

Obama, Romney leading mock election at Johnson fair
The Gazette

IOWA CITY - Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are the top Democratic and Republican vote-getters, respectively, so far in the mock election being held at the Johnson County Fair, Johnson County Auditor Tom Slockett said today.

Hillary Clinton is second among Democrats, while Rudy Giuliani is second among Republicans, said Slockett, whose office is conducting the mock vote.

Anyone attending the fair can vote in the election, which closes at 8 p.m. today. Participants are asked to vote only once, and need to choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot. Results are being posted daily at the fair.

632 people had voted as of 11:22 a.m. today, Slockett said.

Tags: Iowa, obama (all tags)

Comments

38 Comments

sigh

Sigh, when can you become a little more mature?

by areyouready 2007-07-26 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

Hey can folks in cedar rapids vote lol , I won't put much stock in it. Edwards is on target to win Iowa.

by lori 2007-07-26 05:12PM | 0 recs
Cedar Rapids is in Linn County

Iowa City and the U of Iowa campus are in Johnson County. It's one of the most liberal areas of the state. In 1994 I volunteered on Bonnie Campbell's gubernatorial campaign. She carried 4 out of Iowa's 99 counties, including Johnson.

by desmoinesdem 2007-07-26 08:09PM | 0 recs
When real people vote, Obama wins in Money too

by ameri 2007-07-26 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

by ameri 2007-07-26 05:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

If People vote Obama wins, even when they vote with their pocket book.

by ameri 2007-07-26 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

Hey put the booze down , you posted the same thing 3 times

by lori 2007-07-26 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

This is incredible news.. anytime Obama scores, I'm feeling hope for this country.

by BarackObamaHomeboy 2007-07-26 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

So Edwards comes in third?

In fact not only does this have Edwards in 3rd if Edwards got all of the uncommitteds and all of Al Gore's votes he would still only tie Clinton.

Edwards supporters where are you? This is the biggest slam on your candidate

by world dictator 2007-07-26 05:39PM | 0 recs
actual Poll

today has Edwards leading.

who - who has a job and works goes to the fair on Thursday?

by TarHeel 2007-07-26 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: actual Poll

So you're claiming that no likely caucus voters missed this fair?

by world dictator 2007-07-26 06:15PM | 0 recs
Re: actual Poll

How in the world do you read him as saying that? He's just saying that those voting at this fair probably overlap to some significant extent with actual voters. Nothing controversial.

Who knows, actually, how indicative this is regarding how actual caucus-goers will vote. All polls fail to reflect perfectly the opinions of likely voters. Each method systematically excludes certain groups. Polling landline phones underrepresents all sorts of groups--the young, the poor, African-americans, or just people who don't like to bother with phone polls. Likewise, a voting exercise at the Iowa fair underrepresents certain types of voters (I won't bother speculating about the Iowa fair attendees since I've never been to it.)  

by DPW 2007-07-26 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

You are such a raging idiot.

Average out the last 5 reliave Iowa polls (I don't count today's Research 2000 poll because it includes far too many non-caucus goers who lean heavily towards Hillary so the fact that he is even up by 5% in their poll is "the biggest slam on your candidate) and the result is...

EDWARDS - 29.8%
OBAMA - 20.4%
CLINTON - 19.6%
RICHARDSON - 10.6%

So STFU

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-07-26 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

You are such a raging idiot.

Average out the last 5 reliave Iowa polls (I don't count today's Research 2000 poll because it includes far too many non-caucus goers who lean heavily towards Hillary so the fact that he is even up by 5% in their poll is "the biggest slam on your candidate) and the result is...

EDWARDS - 29.8%
OBAMA - 20.4%
CLINTON - 19.6%
RICHARDSON - 10.6%

So STFU...

And by the way this post is beyond ridiculous because it is extremely unlikely that those at the fair represent caucus goers.

Many who are there and voted won't show up to caucus.

Just like many who will show up to caucus aren't there.

This just might be...yes it is...the dumbest diary I have ever seen on a progressive blog.

Congratulations!

And "WorldDICKtator" aren't you supposed to be hanging out at Al From's house or whatever you DLC hacks do.

by Michael 4 Edwards 2007-07-26 10:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

Also, I don't  think fair attendance is the best indicator of who will win a caucus. For all we know alot of people that are going to vote in the Caucus are not there.

Or even worse people who wont vote in the caucus might be there.

This doesn't hold up under 10 seconds of thought. The only thing this proves is that Obama fans in Iowa like fair's

by world dictator 2007-07-26 05:43PM | 0 recs
or people who go to fairs

on thursdays like obama.

are these even 18 year olds voting?

by TarHeel 2007-07-26 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: or people who go to fairs

I think Edwards should adopt this new "anti-fair goers" position. That'll really help him win in Iowa. He should thank you for the advice.

by This Machine Kills Fascists 2007-07-26 09:13PM | 0 recs
GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA

Remember,Obama supporters are young and must of those young voters do not have home-line phone...I'm not saying that this means Obama will win Iowa, but all im saying is that today's poll may be outdated.

Im confident the young vote will come out for Barack.

Its nice to see him winning this mock vote stuff...It shows he has great potential.

The sweetest part is this is happening after he's started attacking Hillary on her B.S

REMEMBER eDWARDS ATTACKED hILLARY TOO DURING THE LAST DEBATE AND HE'S DOING GOOD IN THOSE POLL??

MAYBE ATTACKING HILLARY PLAYS WELL IN IOWA.

by JaeHood 2007-07-26 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA

Most of those young voters don't vote at all especially in caucuses

by world dictator 2007-07-26 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

CAN WE HAVE LINK PLEASE...THIS IS GREAT NEWS....HILLARY IS THE ONLY ONE THAT IS NOT RECEIVING ANY GOOD NEWS IN IOWA.

by JaeHood 2007-07-26 05:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

You are being rude by typing in block letters can you please stop doing that . Just a suggestion , I am not trying to be heavy handed.

by lori 2007-07-26 06:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes
Let us not forget that Iowa is a caucus state NOT a primary state - so this "mock election" is completely irrelevant, besides making the Obama folks feel good.
And while he may have huge support with the "young"vote - they don't traditionally caucus.
by DuncanB 2007-07-26 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

They don't traditionally get called for polling either.  

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-07-26 06:17PM | 0 recs
That's right

Believe me,there's a reason why Obama is making sure he has their phone number and address on record...Obama has enough money to rent hundreds of little buses to go around Iowa just to pick up our supporters and bring them to the polls..

Obama has plenty of go get those voters right in their house..

Expect a massive GOPTV for Obama...His state is nearby,so i expect massive Illinois that trained on Camp-Obama to turn out the vote in Iowa.

by JaeHood 2007-07-26 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: That's right

just to pick up our supporters and bring them to the polls.

And he's going to be able to keep them there and stay for the several hours as the individual caucuses form viability groups.  We will see.

I seem to recall a "Perfect Storm" of GOTV in 2004.  I'm trying to remember how that went.

by Rooktoven 2007-07-26 07:10PM | 0 recs
Re: That's right

we'll see...Obama will probably have twice the amount of money dean had + Dean didnt have a nearby Home-state where he could bring in supporters in IL.

We'll see...Im confident.

by JaeHood 2007-07-27 01:56AM | 0 recs
Wonderful!

The only thing this proves is that Obama fans in Iowa like fair's
(world dictator)

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

by Regan 2007-07-26 07:06PM | 0 recs
Spin, to work, has to be believable

It has to pay to a pre-conceived notion.  Hillary is not thought of as weak.

Yours won't work.

by dpANDREWS 2007-07-26 07:21PM | 0 recs
Wow! Goolllly!

Thats totally .... meaningless.

by dpANDREWS 2007-07-26 07:08PM | 0 recs
Not so fast

A scientific poll tells us where people are today.   Which leads us to believe where they will be the next day unless something changes.

That brings us to the problem for those candidates trailing in the race for '08.  None of them are changing the dynamics of the race and they contine to allow Hillary to lead and to consolidate support.

If there is no movement by the 1st of October this thing is so OVER!

by dpANDREWS 2007-07-26 07:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Movement

But to be sure, if  a lesser candidate is going to move up it is going to take a bold, well run campaign with some new ideas that Democratic voters can relate to.

Empty rheteric will result in crash and burn.

by dpANDREWS 2007-07-26 07:19PM | 0 recs
With a large number of undecided voters ...

And a change in the race.  Just previosuly Kerry had infused his cash into the race and shook up his staff.  He made change to impact the result.

Obama can still do that.  No doubt.  He has the $$$ to do it.  Does he have the savvy?  

We'll see.

by dpANDREWS 2007-07-26 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Iowa state fair...

The IA state fair starts Aug 9th and runs about 10 days. They will have a straw poll for both party's. IA like Minnesota's state fair is big for all of the state . People from all over the state will come to the fair.

It will be interesting to see how these straw polls come out.

by BDM 2007-07-26 08:07PM | 0 recs
Re: With a large number of undecided voters ...

Obama's statewide coordinator who is managing his campaign is John Kerry's campaign head from 2004.

by BDM 2007-07-26 08:09PM | 0 recs
The People's Republic of Johnson County

That's what Johnson County, home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa, is affectionately called by some.

I would be surprised if Obama were not leading here--huge numbers of voters under 30 compared to the rest of Iowa.

To get an idea of the political culture of Johnson County is, look it up in the 2004 caucus results by county (link is here http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/poli tics/caucus2004/countyresults.html)

It was one of the best counties for Kucinich (7.3 percent) and Dean (28.7 percent).

by desmoinesdem 2007-07-26 08:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

That's not very many votes.  Easy for a campus to stuff the ballot box at a fair.

Obama's big problem in Iowa is that the votes are not counted proportionally statewide.  He might have a big vote in some urban and campus areas, but no matter how many people vote for him there, they still only get the handful of delegates that their district gets.  And in the rural districts, where he may fail to get the 15% threshold for delegates at a caucus site, he will win no delegates at all... over wide areas of the state.

I was with Hart in '88 when he got clobbered by the 15% "threshold rule".  The last weekend, he was polling 22% statewide... and when people voted, he ended up with ONE percent of the actual delegates.

Any "straw polls" conducted at any one place are totally meaningless.... because they are generally conducted in one geographic location which can be "rushed" by supporters with a little organization... and because they don't require the participants to dedicate several hours to casting their vote, as the actual caucuses will.

Obama would be well-advised to devote his energies to the New Hampshire primary and make his stand there.  They are notorious for liking the "new flavor of the month," and its a primary, not a caucus system which demands hours of the voters' time.

Let's face it: Obama may have hoards of "young supporters," but the young aren't known for their patience, attention span, or for devoting hours of their lives to what will obviously be a rather boring process.  Furthermore, their geographic concentrations will make a statewide victory for Obama very unlikely.

If each voter was counted on a statewide basis, as in a primary, Obama could have a chance there with mass mobilizations of campus voters.  But Iowa doesn't work that way.  I think he'll end up in third place in the Iowa national convention delegate count, because of district voting and the threshold rule. That will be quite a blow to the campaign, if he makes a serious effort there and ends up in third place.

by John Poet 2007-07-26 10:51PM | 0 recs
This should be on the front page. n/t

by Populism2008 2007-07-26 11:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama LEADS is Iowa Caucus votes

The mock election is very nice news...Any update of the election coming out soon??...This wasnt a one day thingy, right?

by JaeHood 2007-07-27 01:43AM | 0 recs

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