• comment on a post The Northeast - Continuing the realignment in 2010? over 5 years ago

    Two things:

    NY-23: McHugh needs to get to 2012 to have 20 years in the House. IIRC, he crosses a pension threshold that way, so expect him to stay. Plus, that district will probably get zapped during redistricting, so no one will really want it for two years.

    NH-SEN: Judd Gregg is more entrenched by far than Sununu. He'd be a tougher target. But NH is trending blue pretty hard, and Lynch is very popular, so he may try it. It'd be a barnburner of a race. Hodes would have a tougher row to hoe.

  • comment on a post Netroots Rising: Telling the Stories We Know over 5 years ago

    After Susan G's review, it seems gratuitous to say I'm looking forward to reading it, but ... I am. Have been since I first heard of it.

  • This is a big problem for HRC, imo. Her campaign is now at the point where her every utterance is scrutinized by reporters. They hope they can get one of those 21st Century investigative "scoops" by Googling a few things and catching her in a "lie."

    Honestly, the health care anecdote-gone-bad could happen to any politician. But when a campaign is caught in this kind of cycle where the media looks for excuses to run with another "Hillary Lies!" pseudo-scoop, it can create some big problems.

  • on a comment on Dedicated his house too? over 6 years ago

    We haven't contributed to the problem, and to use blanket statements blaming the white guy for all the sins of America is just as bad as your average white guy blaming the black race with whatever grievance is on his mind.

    This isn't even close to accurate. The "white guy" has been in power in this country since the beginning. The "white guy" used every lever of institutional power to first enslave and then disempower African-Americans. How could it be "just as bad" for an African-American to blame the sins of America on white people as it is for a white guy to blame African-Americans for his problems?

    Seems crazy that Wright blames white people for AIDS? Well, that's out there, but then I didn't have this country target my race for gruesome syphilis testing in my lifetime.

    You think it's wrong that Reverend Wright has some anger? Well, try growing up like him, try ministering to a community that has been treated so badly in this country's history.

    Do I have "white guilt"? No, I don't. I don't feel personally guilty for slavery or Jim Crow. But I do have the grace and the wisdom to realize that it happened, and not to blame someone like Reverend Wright for being a little angry about the whole thing.

    And I also don't blame Barack Obama for the anger of Reverend Wright, and I certainly don't blame him for not "renouncing" him. Barack Obama has chosen a different path than Reverend Wright, but if you spent as much time living in an African-American community as I have, you'd know that there are wonderful, caring, loving people who also feel anger about the way their people have been treated in this country. You accept the anger, and you see the whole person.

  • on a comment on Obama is now gaming our system over 6 years ago

    But you are on Obama's mailing list. That is for Obama supporters, so emails from the Obama campaign to their list are presumed to be to supporters.

    This is a GOTV email, like any campaign sends out, reminding people they must be registered by a certain date to vote. To try to make an issue of it is just kind of odd.

  • on a comment on Texas Results Thread over 6 years ago

    Actually, over 1 million people voted early.

    BurntOrange link

  • http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Canadians_deny_Obama_call.html

    A spokesman for the Canadian Embassy to the United States, Tristan Landry, flatly denied the CTV report that a senior Obama aide had told the Canadian ambassador not to take seriously Obama's denunciations of Nafta.

    "None of the presidential campaigns have called either the Ambassador or any of the officials here to raise Nafta," Landry said.

    He said there had been no conversations at all on the subject.

    "We didn't make any calls, they didn't call us," Landry said.

    "There is no story as far as we're concerned," he said.

  • Greatest. Spin. Ever.

    Lies, truth, what's the diff? McCain's moving on.

    Straight Talk!

  • Nah, add some stuff about the power of the small-donors to stand up to the big-money interests funding the shadowy right-wing attack machine, and you've got the "new brand of politics" in there, too.

    Good thing is, it's all true.

  • This is an easy one to bat back. Just two words: Freedom's Watch.

    The Bush-connected group is talking about spending $250 million dollars trashing the Democrats next  year, and the Democratic nominee needs money to defend against the smears of the shadowy front-groups of the right-wing that McCain's legislation makes possible.

    Easy. Even get a swipe at McCain in there and tie him to Bush. All in one sentence. I'm sure if I spent any time I could make it punchier, but that's just off the top of my head.

  • on a comment on Clinton wins New Hampshire over 6 years ago

    I take that back ... looking over it, Barack got the same percentage of the votes of women as he got in Iowa, but Edwards got much less, all of it going to Clinton.

    So Edwards cratering among women is an interesting story ...

  • on a comment on Clinton wins New Hampshire over 6 years ago

    I'd suspect age is a factor. The "woman vote" isn't monolithic, of course, and Obama did really, really well among younger women in Iowa. The NH electorate today was older than the IA electorate was.

    And, of course, the incredibly unfair and sexist treatment of Clinton's "crying" episode ...

  • on a comment on The state of race over 6 years ago

    "Not enough money to compete" doesn't equal "out of money." It just means she won't have enough money to compete with Obama's money across the quasi-national primary of February 5th.

    She has money, but she'll need to spend a lot in Florida to try to grab a victory ... leaving her at a big cash disadvantage going into the one day where a cash disadvantage is a big, big problem.

    Sure, she'll have money, but it's not good just to have money, you have to have enough money to compete with your opponent.

  • on a comment on The state of race over 6 years ago

    That's true, and I wasn't very precise in what I said ... what I meant was that I believe that Obama will have a massive majority in the African-American community, giving him such a large bloc of votes that simple buzz and momentum can give him enough in the rest to carry him to the finish line. Especially in a three-way race.

    Not definite, and I'm not sure how likely it is, but it's certainly well within possible ...

  • comment on a post The state of race over 6 years ago

    Neither Hillary nor Edwards will have the money to compete by February 5th.

    Obama will probably win Nevada on pure momentum, he will surely win South Carolina big by getting nearly all the African-American vote, MI won't matter not because of delegates but because there's no one else on the ballot, which leaves on Florida.

    I don't see how anyone beats Obama in Florida just because of the African-American vote, but even if it happens, that's not enough time for an opponent to gather the funds necessary to compete nationally on February 5th.

    This is a stupid primary calendar for just this reason; there's very little chance for any momentum shift in this calendar. And if one candidate has the African-American vote locked up like Obama will ... "very little chance" becomes "virtually no chance."

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