NY-23: McHugh needs to get to 2012 to have 20 years in the House. IIRC, he crosses a pension threshold that way, so expect him to stay. Plus, that district will probably get zapped during redistricting, so no one will really want it for two years.
NH-SEN: Judd Gregg is more entrenched by far than Sununu. He'd be a tougher target. But NH is trending blue pretty hard, and Lynch is very popular, so he may try it. It'd be a barnburner of a race. Hodes would have a tougher row to hoe.
This is a big problem for HRC, imo. Her campaign is now at the point where her every utterance is scrutinized by reporters. They hope they can get one of those 21st Century investigative "scoops" by Googling a few things and catching her in a "lie."
Honestly, the health care anecdote-gone-bad could happen to any politician. But when a campaign is caught in this kind of cycle where the media looks for excuses to run with another "Hillary Lies!" pseudo-scoop, it can create some big problems.
We haven't contributed to the problem, and to use blanket statements blaming the white guy for all the sins of America is just as bad as your average white guy blaming the black race with whatever grievance is on his mind.
This isn't even close to accurate. The "white guy" has been in power in this country since the beginning. The "white guy" used every lever of institutional power to first enslave and then disempower African-Americans. How could it be "just as bad" for an African-American to blame the sins of America on white people as it is for a white guy to blame African-Americans for his problems?
Seems crazy that Wright blames white people for AIDS? Well, that's out there, but then I didn't have this country target my race for gruesome syphilis testing in my lifetime.
You think it's wrong that Reverend Wright has some anger? Well, try growing up like him, try ministering to a community that has been treated so badly in this country's history.
Do I have "white guilt"? No, I don't. I don't feel personally guilty for slavery or Jim Crow. But I do have the grace and the wisdom to realize that it happened, and not to blame someone like Reverend Wright for being a little angry about the whole thing.
And I also don't blame Barack Obama for the anger of Reverend Wright, and I certainly don't blame him for not "renouncing" him. Barack Obama has chosen a different path than Reverend Wright, but if you spent as much time living in an African-American community as I have, you'd know that there are wonderful, caring, loving people who also feel anger about the way their people have been treated in this country. You accept the anger, and you see the whole person.
A spokesman for the Canadian Embassy to the United States, Tristan Landry, flatly denied the CTV report that a senior Obama aide had told the Canadian ambassador not to take seriously Obama's denunciations of Nafta.
"None of the presidential campaigns have called either the Ambassador or any of the officials here to raise Nafta," Landry said.
He said there had been no conversations at all on the subject.
"We didn't make any calls, they didn't call us," Landry said.
"There is no story as far as we're concerned," he said.
This is an easy one to bat back. Just two words: Freedom's Watch.
The Bush-connected group is talking about spending $250 million dollars trashing the Democrats next year, and the Democratic nominee needs money to defend against the smears of the shadowy front-groups of the right-wing that McCain's legislation makes possible.
Easy. Even get a swipe at McCain in there and tie him to Bush. All in one sentence. I'm sure if I spent any time I could make it punchier, but that's just off the top of my head.
That's true, and I wasn't very precise in what I said ... what I meant was that I believe that Obama will have a massive majority in the African-American community, giving him such a large bloc of votes that simple buzz and momentum can give him enough in the rest to carry him to the finish line. Especially in a three-way race.
Not definite, and I'm not sure how likely it is, but it's certainly well within possible ...
Neither Hillary nor Edwards will have the money to compete by February 5th.
Obama will probably win Nevada on pure momentum, he will surely win South Carolina big by getting nearly all the African-American vote, MI won't matter not because of delegates but because there's no one else on the ballot, which leaves on Florida.
I don't see how anyone beats Obama in Florida just because of the African-American vote, but even if it happens, that's not enough time for an opponent to gather the funds necessary to compete nationally on February 5th.
This is a stupid primary calendar for just this reason; there's very little chance for any momentum shift in this calendar. And if one candidate has the African-American vote locked up like Obama will ... "very little chance" becomes "virtually no chance."