The 55% number just reflects reluctance of African American voters to commit to a vote for pollsters this early.
If Clinton won the nomination fair and square with a plurality of pledged delegates, way more than 55% of African Americans would come over and push her over the top. Even after beating Obama, she'd win 90% of that demographic.
If she were to win by persuading unpledged, unaccountable delegates to steal the nomination from Obama she'd get about 55% total and go down in flames.
That's just one more reason why the pledged delegates are the important ones this year.
He knows Hillary can't win a nomination without overturning the delegates chosen by the people. With a tainted nomination, Hillary wouldn't be able to defeat McCain.
Obama can still win a clean nomination but it's far from certain that Hillary partisans will accept the legitimacy of his victory. Any of them who don't fall in line will be a great benefit to McCain.
Any Democrat who really cares about our nation's future and electing a Democrat in November would be endorsing Obama and working to grow his margin as large as possible to prove his legitimacy even to the most partisan Hillary backers.
To stay quiet is irresponsible but to endorse Hillary at this late date is shockingly abusive and undermines our viability as a party and the security of our nation's future.
Walt Starr's point is the one supported by precedent. Delaware ran non-sanctions primary straw polls in 1996 and 2000. D.C. ran an unsanctioned primary straw poll in 2004. Both later arranged and held caucuses to actually select delegates to the national convention.
Neither of the straw poll primaries mattered. All three times the state involved eventually held a real contest.
FL proposes to simply not hold a contest. There is no precedent for that and the DNCC should simply refuse to seat any FL delegates at all.
MI proposes to hold a new contest. Fair or not, that is supported by precedent and must be allowed to go forward, with or without the agreement of the candidates.
given Clinton's earlier statements about caucuses, Obama's winning these six delegates shouldn't count
They shouldn't count because Hillary has already declared Iowa is too unimportant to count?
Or they shouldn't count because the only reason Hillary is losing support in Iowa is that she has insulted Iowans saying they don't count and lied to Iowans about her opposition to counting MI and FL illegal straw poll delegates? If the decision had been over on Super Tuesday, her lies and insults wouldn't matter so it's not fair to count the repercussions now.
Really, a DOJ attorney decided that a completely unlike case needed preclearance? Without any federal case law to back it up?
That's really definitive.
A party-run primary organized by a private company would provide no nexus for any federal government action to block it.
Private organizations like the MI Dem Party organize vote-by-mail internal elections every year for their officers without ever consulting DOJ because they are not state run contests or elections for public office. Literally thousands of these elections take place every year in MI and FL. Mountains of case law support the practice.
Why would anyone submit a plan to the DOJ? Presidential primaries are not subject to DOJ review unless they are run as a state election.
Allowing the Florida Sec'y Of State within a million miles of the mail-in primary would be a terrible blunder. The incompetence of that office is proven. Many private sector businesses could do far better and some of them are likely located in Florida. Probably cheaper, too.
Just buy the registered voter list (the DNC already has copies) and run the election privately. Any other plan is madness.
Yes, we should hold national primaries. The Federal Government should allocate grants to the states to pay for presidential primaries every four years.
For about $1 per citizen we could pretty much whip every state into shape and get them to hold primaries that comply with the rules of the major parties while maximizing turnout. The grant should actually be based on turnout -- you only get the $1 for a citizen if that citizen actually turns out on election day (or an appropriate absentee process) to vote. That should end the foolishness of presidential caucuses.
The national primaries should not all be held on the same day, of course. Part of the rules should be a requirement to stagger the process.