• comment on a post LA-Sen: Dems Working to Recruit Melancon over 4 years ago

    Did Cazyoux already pass this one up?

  • There has never been a single nominee that didn't win the pledged, the popular vote and the supers.

    Adlai Stevenson.  Both in 1952 and 1956 Estes Kefauver won the popular vote.  (And Kefauver would have been a far superior nominee.)

  • on a comment on PA polls & outliers over 6 years ago

    It's worse than that.  To have a chance of catching Obama's elected delegate lead, she needs to win PA by over 40%.

    A win by 50% would put her right back in the race.  She'd still be losing, but she'd actually be a serious candidate again.

    And if she can hold Obama below the 15% viability threshold, she might be in the lead after KY and WV vote.  That's if she starts doing much better than expected in other states, too.

  • on a comment on WV Dem poll, Clinton up by 28 over 6 years ago

    The 55% number just reflects reluctance of African American voters to commit to a vote for pollsters this early.

    If Clinton won the nomination fair and square with a plurality of pledged delegates, way more than 55% of African Americans would come over and push her over the top.  Even after beating Obama, she'd win 90% of that demographic.

    If she were to win by persuading unpledged, unaccountable delegates to steal the nomination from Obama she'd get about 55% total and go down in flames.

    That's just one more reason why the pledged delegates are the important ones this year.

  • Hillary proved in the Democrats Abroad primary that she can win in the Caucasus.

    Please recommend, thanks.

  • Oh, well.  That at least is a legitimate motive.

  • Why would Murtha do this?

    He knows Hillary can't win a nomination without overturning the delegates chosen by the people.  With a tainted nomination, Hillary wouldn't be able to defeat McCain.

    Obama can still win a clean nomination but it's far from certain that Hillary partisans will accept the legitimacy of his victory.  Any of them who don't fall in line will be a great benefit to McCain.

    Any Democrat who really cares about our nation's future and electing a Democrat in November would be endorsing Obama and working to grow his margin as large as possible to prove his legitimacy even to the most partisan Hillary backers.  

    To stay quiet is irresponsible but to endorse Hillary at this late date is shockingly abusive and undermines our viability as a party and the security of our nation's future.

    Why would Rep. Murtha do that?

  • on a comment on MI and Republicans over 6 years ago

    Walt Starr's point is the one supported by precedent.  Delaware ran non-sanctions primary straw polls in 1996 and 2000.  D.C. ran an unsanctioned primary straw poll in 2004.  Both later arranged and held caucuses to actually select delegates to the national convention.

    Neither of the straw poll primaries mattered.  All three times the state involved eventually held a real contest.

    FL proposes to simply not hold a contest.  There is no precedent for that and the DNCC should simply refuse to seat any FL delegates at all.

    MI proposes to hold a new contest.  Fair or not, that is supported by precedent and must be allowed to go forward, with or without the agreement of the candidates.

  • on a comment on Barack Obama Speech Thread over 6 years ago

    might cost him the nomination

    Too late for that.  Now let's see whether he can deliver in this crisis to win the presidency.

  • on a comment on No Florida Re-Vote over 6 years ago

    Seating FL would be the tombstone on any chance to challenge the IA/NH duopoly.

    The DNC rules will need to prove to be the final word if it is to have the strength to topple the IA/NH system.

  • given Clinton's earlier statements about caucuses, Obama's winning these six delegates shouldn't count

    They shouldn't count because Hillary has already declared Iowa is too unimportant to count?

    Or they shouldn't count because the only reason Hillary is losing support in Iowa is that she has insulted Iowans saying they don't count and lied to Iowans about her opposition to counting MI and FL illegal straw poll delegates?  If the decision had been over on Super Tuesday, her lies and insults wouldn't matter so it's not fair to count the repercussions now.

  • Well,  the plan is flawed.  That's no surprise.  Do you suppose it's a poison pill in the plan or just the result of ignorance of MI corporation law?

  • Really, a DOJ attorney decided that a completely unlike case needed preclearance?  Without any federal case law to back it up?

    That's really definitive.  

    A party-run primary organized by a private company would provide no nexus for any federal government action to block it.  

    Private organizations like the MI Dem Party organize vote-by-mail internal elections every year for their officers without ever consulting DOJ because they are not state run contests or elections for public office.  Literally thousands of these elections take place every year in MI and FL.  Mountains of case law support the practice.

  • Why would anyone submit a plan to the DOJ?  Presidential primaries are not subject to DOJ review unless they are run as a state election.

    Allowing the Florida Sec'y Of State within a million miles of the mail-in primary would be a terrible blunder.  The incompetence of that office is proven.  Many private sector businesses could do far better and some of them are likely located in Florida.  Probably cheaper, too.

    Just buy the registered voter list (the DNC already has copies) and run the election privately.  Any other plan is madness.

  • on a comment on Why Caucuses Suck over 6 years ago

    Yes, we should hold national primaries.  The Federal Government should allocate grants to the states to pay for presidential primaries every four years.

    For about $1 per citizen we could pretty much whip every state into shape and get them to hold primaries that comply with the rules of the major parties while maximizing turnout.  The grant should actually be based on turnout -- you only get the $1 for a citizen if that citizen actually turns out on election day (or an appropriate absentee process) to vote.  That should end the foolishness of presidential caucuses.

    The national primaries should not all be held on the same day, of course.  Part of the rules should be a requirement to stagger the process.

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