OR-Sen Gordon Smith Can't Win

Sorry for the short entry but I went number crunching.  Gordon Smith can't pull this thing out.  Merkley is running ahead of John Kerry in every single county in the state, convincingly.  

With 71% reporting, it's 47/47%.  

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results state#OR

Where are the outstanding votes?

The most underreported counties are Multnomah and Lane, home to Portland and Eugene.  

The pattern is overwhelmingly obvious; Gordon Smith is running about 5 points statewide behind George Bush, who himself lost Oregon by 4% in 2004.  

We have this seat in the bag.  Looking at the map and pretending otherwise is like calling Ohio for Obama and pretending McCain can somehow win.  

Tags: Oregon Senate (all tags)



Sure hope you're right

Multnomah is 100% in now and Smith is still 10,500 votes up.  With a million votes cast and only 74% in statewide, you easily could be right, but I'm not willing to call this 'in the bag' just yet.

by semiquaver 2008-11-05 01:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Sure hope you're right

No...that is an error.  It says 100% in, but Multnomah is actually only about 30% in.  It seemed like a very low vote total when I saw it was 100%, so I checked it out...it's definitely only about a third in.  Merkley looks very solid.

by gorebeatbush2 2008-11-05 02:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Sure hope you're right

It's wrong.  The amount of votes cast in the Oregon Senate race in Multnomah County is 124,000 and mislabeled "100%."  Compare it to the presidential race where 130,000 votes were cast and it's "32%" in.  

There a discussion about the Multnomah County discrepancy on Big Orange (tonight is the first night I read the site since before the primary ended).  

Multnomah's Senate race is only about 32% in.  The fact that this race hasn't been called for Merkley is a mathematical crime.  

by BPK80 2008-11-05 02:08AM | 0 recs
Re: OR-Sen Gordon Smith Can't Win

Tim Hibbits (local pollster with a fantastic track record) called it last night for Merkley. Everyone else is just gunshy about it.  Merkley will win the race, count on it.

by cooptimo 2008-11-05 05:26AM | 0 recs


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