Yes. He'll win. In fact, he'll win very big. And he'll do it with a majority of the people who support or have supported Hillary Clinton throughout the primaries.
All I have to do is look at the current polls, all of which show a virtual tie and project out a 1-3% rise per week in the polls for Obama as soon as Clinton retires from the race and he can focus solely on McCain.
You see, even with the toning down of rhetoric by the Clinton campaign, Obama's people have to be prepared for an attack from both flanks at all times. When he is no longer diverted by someone from his own party, he will be able to concentrate all of his energies on McCain. It would be the same if the tables were turned and Clinton were leading right now; she would be forced to remain wary of Obama until she could concentrate her fire on McCain full time.
I'm not concerned in the least about November, no matter who we have as a nominee, because no matter how upset people are with the opposition in their own party, one would have to be sociopathic to rationalize voting for McCain (or not voting at all) out of spite.
in the nomination contest. I see those Clinton supporters who use selective evidence as engaging in irrational behavior; that behavior is being stoked by Jerome and the echo chamber of rabid Clinton supporters here.
And I'm not going to ask for the graciousness of people to vote in their own best interest. It seems a bit patronizing to think that someone wants me to rub their head, tell them it will be okay and then re-explain all the reasons for supporting Obama that have already been hashed out here for six months.
Fortunately for me, your hypothetical has no bearing in reality. I don't even have to consider how I'd react if a Clinton supporter asked for my vote then spit on my shoe.
I will indulge you just a bit to say that I wouldn't use the threat of voting against my self-interest out of spite as a threat against the nominee I didn't support, though. I would've held my tongue and my nose and voted for Clinton.
I could easily have not been snarky and pointed out that Claire Shipman and Cokie Roberts have shown as much bias for Hillary as the people you mentioned were showing such for Obama. I'm sure if I really thought about it, I could come up with others as well.
As for America's hate of the media, I think you're projecting your own hate for the media onto the larger population. Look at the ratings. They don't hate them on near the scale as you'd like to believe.
If you think Wright is going to be a huge issue in the GE, then I hope your prescience pays off for you, but my crystal ball says it's a non-issue. Since I doubt either one of us has the powers you suggest, I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the general. I'll put my prediction that the nominee will be Obama against your hope that Clinton will be any day, though.
Standing rule is that the winner of the nomination needs 2025. Unless or until the RBC of the DNC makes a change on May 31, then the nomination of the party can be secured with the standing number.
Keep that in mind because with the 55-60 pledged delegates he's likely to pick up in KY and OR, that will leave Obama with around 45 needed to win the nomination. If he continues picking up SDs at the rate he has been (4-5/day) over the next 11 days, he'll secure the nomination before the RBC even meets.
this is a case in point for an argument I made earlier. If alegre is coordinating with the Clinton campaign, shouldn't it be made clear in her diaries that she has an active role with them?
This is, of course, taking a leap of faith to suggest that I believe that, a) she's not creating an importance for herself that doesn't exist and/or b) the Clinton campaign is so desperate that they would use her in any capacity, even as a (really, really) low level operative.
I don't think it's too much to ask that there is some clarification on alegre's connection to the Clinton campaign. According to this and a few other diaries, she's been privy to certain aspects of a campaign that are not within reach of a regular voter which suggests that she is subject to influence...and that's something that potential readers should know.