When Will They Stop Lying About The Economy?
by bobswern, Sun Jul 06, 2008 at 11:52:10 PM EDT
Everything "we know"about our economy really is wrong.
The U.S. gov't is grossly distorting our country's financial realities to us, via publicized statistical reports, on a regular basis.
NEW INFORMATION SUPPORTS THIS REALITY.
At least as far as the Consumer Price Index (i.e.: inflation and cost of living statistics) is concerned, in a story running in this (Monday) morning's Bloomberg.com confirms this. A variety of comments from throughout the business community concur that the Consumer Price Index ("CPI") statistics that we hear from our government are little more than fiction.
THE REAL DEAL.
Walter J. "John" Williams, IMHO, a brilliant analyst and consulting economist (to many Fortune 500 companies during his career), works from his website at: http://www.shadowstats.com. Williams has an MBA from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.
If you've been reading my diaries on this subject, then you know I'm a fan of his.
Williams provides an "Alternative Data Series" to his subscribers, and you may click on the link in this sentence to see it from a basic overview. According to Williams', the current annual U.S. consumer inflation rate is just under 12%, not around 4%, as most recently reported in Washington. Here's a basic recap of Williams' latest numbers:
(Again, this is all available, with charts, at: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_dat a)
Official US Gov't Rate: 5.5%
ShadowStats.com Rate: 14.0%
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ANNUAL GROWTH--
Official US Gov't Rate: +2.5%
ShadowStats.com Rate: -2.2%
ANNUAL CONSUMER INFLATION RATE (CPI, Consumer Price Index)--
Official US Gov't Rate: 4.1%
ShadowStats.com Rate: 11.8%
Williams' general overview/summary as to where things are going is:
There is no question of the economy being in an intensifying inflationary recession. Market fantasies of a bottomed downturn and a banking system on the mend got a jolt of reality last week, and regardless of any further jolts of alternating market pressures, the longer range outlook remains bleak for U.S. equities, bonds and the dollar but remains brilliant for gold.
He has a rather thorough report on the hyperinflationary period we're entering into now. This was also reported on Bloomberg in reference to comments from other experts just a few days ago.
POTENTIAL/LIKELIHOOD OF A DEPRESSION IN THE NEAR-TERM.
His sense is that there's a very strong possibility we'll be in a hyperinflationary depression in as little as 18 months. His "alternate statistics" do support this contention.
I learned about the existence of Williams' statistics due to multiple references from my readings from leading progressive/liberal bloggers on the economy such as Jerome a Paris, on Daily Kos (and elsewhere), and Ilargi over at The Automatic Earth.
I strongly recommend both of them if you're at all interested in this most basic of information, in terms of the reality that this subject affects all of us, and in a myriad of ways, too.
YES, THERE IS A LOT GLOOM AND DOOM, BUT...
There are things we can do to avert this, both on a personal level, and as a society. For instance, there's a silver lining, so to speak, in terms of the development of alternative energy. Jerome a Paris provides a great example in one of his diaries from just a few days ago: "Houston, we have a solution."
DON'T BUY THE CRAP WE'RE HEARING FROM THE MSM AND WASHINGTON.
The writing on the wall--if not from the MSM and our government--is becoming clearer and clearer as to where things are going in the immediate future. Many companies and brands we know today may no longer be in existence soon--in many cases before we even vote in the general election in November: "July 4th Liquidation Sale! Everything Must Go!"
From where I'm standing, this reality will inevitably and adversely affect every citizen in this country, if you're not feeling it already (and, I'm talking about a hell of a lot more than just the escalating price of gasoline). Expect to see plenty of ongoing reminders of just how bad it's getting here and abroad, on a daily basis, as this escalates exponentially, as well. Just today, over at The Automatic Earth, Ilargi referenced this quote:
Renault CEO Sees Carmaker Consolidation as Stocks Decline
Renault SA Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said he expects mergers among automakers because car companies' stocks are "undervalued.""When you've got General Motors Inc., the world's biggest carmaker, worth $6 billion, or 3 percent of its revenue, that is about two weeks of revenue, you know very well that something is going to happen," Ghosn said today during the Economic Forum of Aix-en-Provence in southern France.
In this same article, Ilargi goes on to mention how the next planned price hike in gasoline in Great Britain will bring their equivalent dollar-cost-per-gallon in the United Kingdom to a whopping $10.50! (We have it bad; it's going to get a lot worse here, too; but, there are countries elsewhere that are dealing with at least as much hardship, if not worse. And, it will get worse for them, as well.)
Obviously, in the efforts of a few to bring these not-so-obvious realities to the forefront of our dialogue now, many are taking a lot of hits for doing their part to make certain these realities don't continue to get glossed over by the MSM, who are in turn taking their queues from Washington.
Without this being--CONTINUALLY--front and center in our dialogue on these blogs, we are avoiding what may very well be the greatest and most imminent crisis of our generation. (And, perhaps, for generations to come.)
Putting it mildly, things are not good; and by not acknowledging the potential and imminent severity and catastrophic nature of this situation--to the point where it is IMHO perhaps our greatest priority as a society--is to all but insure that our greatest fears about "gloom and doom" become reality.