• on a comment on Jerry Brown, Governor (Again)? over 5 years ago
    While the Prop 8 ads were an awful statewide introduction, I think this Gavin Newsom video is far more damning:
  • on a comment on Jerry Brown, Governor (Again)? over 5 years ago

    Last night I twittered that this quote from the story cited really jumped out at me:

    "Earl Warren used to say you start when the first snow hits the Sierras in the fall," Brown said, explaining his timing for the campaign. "My father told me that."

    While that does go against a lot of modern conventional wisdom, look at the fundraising and burn rate and you'll see it might work for Brown (who is already well know with longstanding relationships):

    Attorney General Jerry Brown announced Friday that he raised $3.4 million in 2008 in advance of an expected bid for governor in 2010. That sum leaves Brown, a Democrat, perched above his two declared Democratic rivals, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who each reported raising on the order of $1.1 million last year.

    Brown's haul, combined with leftover cash from his 2006 election, leaves him with $4.1 million cash-on-hand, a total that dwarfs the roughly $750,000 available to Garamendi and the $540,000 available to Newsom at year's end.

    Brown's campaign touts its low "burn rate" - the ratio of spending the money it raised.
    The Brown operation has been largely a two-person show, the attorney general and his wife, Anne Gust. As such, Brown spent only a $172,000 in 2008, less than one-third of what Newsom or Garamendi spent.

    Which positions Brown well. As for Newsom:

    Newsom's campaign, which released its report earlier this month, touts that the mayor raised $1.179 million in only six months -- half the time Garamendi and Brown spent coaxing contributors.

    It doesn't look too shabby, but in the last two months of 2002, Newsom's mayoral campaign (I worked on it) raised $580K with contribution. Considering that we lacked online fundraising ability and had donation limits less than 1/20th of gubernatorial limits, it appears Newsom's ability to raise money post-scandal and after the damning Prop 8 ads isn't nearly what it used to be.

  • comment on a post Jerry Brown, Governor (Again)? over 5 years ago

    I think Brown is far less likely than Gavin Newsom to screw it up. I don't think Villaraigosa is running. And I like Garamedi but he has been having a tough time getting traction.

    Also, found this Joe Trippi twitter interesting:

    New Rasmussen Poll -- Jerry Brown only Dem to lead GOPer Meg Whitman http://is.gd/hSm5 Brown's facebook page http://tinyurl.com/b7pchs

  • If you think targeting isn't still an incredibly important piece of the pie in winning elections, you're as ignorant as you sound.

    Targeting is important, but not nearly as important as it once was. With technology circumventing geography, the most persuasive voices no longer need to be neighbors. But McAuliffe over-targeted to the point where even if we won everything he wanted (which we didn't), we would still be losers. Same thing with Clinton where their over-targeting early cost them dearly.

    The "McAuliffe pay to play" myth is one that mainly exists because ignorant folks such as yourself don't know that McAuliffe's chairmanship at the DNC was the period when the party really started going after small-dollar donors and stopped having to rely so heavily on wealthy insiders.

    Uh no. McCain-Feingold forced the change and Terry was dragged along kicking and screaming -- all the while not taking advantage of the potential.

    McAuliffe is to transactional politics what Joe Lieberman is to triangulation communication. The entire strategic reform online has been a backlash to McAuliffe's style of politics.

  • Bloggers have been bashing Terry since it became clear he was fucking up the 2002 cycle.

    You could lay out a good case that Terry McAuliffe dug a hole so deep that the laws of physics created the blogosphere to fill the leadership vacuum.

  • All the DNC does is raise money and provide infrastructure to the party - and Terry McAuliffe did that better than any party chairman who had come before him.

    The Maginot Line ws the best to come along, but that doesn't mean it was good enough.

    When it comes to money, McAuliffe was on the wrong side of history with his pay-to-play transactional politics that destroyed the soul of the Democratic Party. When it comes to infrastructure, went overboard on targeting (which he sucked at) and ran a top-down, anti-grassroots style that was also on the wrong side of history. Look at pretty much every major advancement in politics and you'll see Terry McAuliffe on the other side.

    And the fact that McAuliffe dead-enders need to rely on Dean not saying bad things when he replaced McAuliffe instead of what McAuliffe did is pretty sad.

  • Sure, he's not perfect.

    That is one way of saying it. Anyone might be that he actually is quite perfect at being counterproductive politically.

  • It is difficult to blog about Terry without mocking him

  • His time at the DNC was the winter solstice for VA Democrats.

  • comment on a post NRSC Already Going After Reid over 5 years ago

    Conventional wisdom has it that, because Harry Reid is the Senate majority leader in a Democratic majority town, a run against him in 2010 would be an exercise in futility or, at best, the job for a sacrificial lamb.

    Haven't heard that. The conventional wisdom I've heard is that Reid isn't popular, will be pinned down in DC, and that the DSCC will be forced to spend as much as is necessary on him giving the Republicans a huge incentive to make him the top target. And he is very vulnerable to a primary.

  • comment on a post "Bipartisanship" over 5 years ago

    February 2, 2001:

    BUSH: It's important for us not to let the tax-relief debate fall into a class-warfare debate. It seems like, to me, the fair way to do things is if people pay taxes, they ought to get tax relief.

    KING: So a commitment to a bipartisan tone doesn't mean there won't be partisan fights. But the president says he's happy with his early outreach to both parties.

    (END VIDEOTAPE) KING: True, as Bush aides say, that this is the way the new president likes to operate: taking the time to build personal relations with members in both parties. But it is also true, after an election so close, and with the Congress so evenly divided, a bipartisan approach is as much a necessity as a choice -- Frank.

    SESNO: And, John, are the Democrats charmed?

    KING: They're charmed. They say they appreciate the outreach and that they say this is a president who's quite affable, and they say, contrary to what some of them thought during the campaign, quite informed and quite on much to the issues.

    A man carrying a machete and baseball bat was arrested after attacking four people inside a school. The attack happened at an elementary school in York, Pennsylvania. The school principal was seriously injured, suffering numerous cuts. Two other adults and five kindergartners were also hurt. Officials say none of the injures are life-threatening. There is no word yet as to what sparked the attack.

    KARL: And senators of all stripes are praising Bush's reputation for being punctual, unlike his chronically late predecessor.

    BAUCUS: He's not on Clinton time; he's on Bush time. It's important; that's very important. It shows respect; it shows that you're serious.

    KARL: And the big fight looming is over Bush's $1.6 trillion tax cut, a proposal Democrats are virtually unanimous in saying is too big.

    After Bush's speech, the Democrats were told by one pollster they've got to out-charm Bush when it comes to bipartisanship.

    JOHN ZOGBY, POLLSTER: Voters are telling us they're very, very tired of the bickering and the partisanship

    KARL: Well they're, you know, trying to out-bipartisan him. It was interesting; I met with Max Baucus earlier today, Democrat from Montana; a very key player in all this because he's the senior on the Finance Committee that will deal with that tax cut. And Baucus said to me that, based on what he's seeing with Bush, he believes he has the potential to be a great president -- this after he's just been in office, what, a couple of weeks?

    So, clearly Democrats are also out there trying to show that they're also willing to reach out to the President Bush and to work with him. Everybody, it seems, is trying to out-bipartisan the other side here.

    SESNO: Hey, it's become a charming city, Jon; thanks very much.

    And now to former President Clinton. He's on the defensive; today he offered his most extensive comments yet about a controversial pardon he granted during his final hours in office.

    But, as CNN's Kate Snow reports, questions remain.

    (emphasis mine)

  • comment on a post Open Thread over 5 years ago

    So if negating a frame invokes the frame, why the hell did the tobacco settlement force tobacco companies to air ads on quitting smoking?

  • The fact he was a joke hurt him. The fact the Party needed to bring in a joke hurt them. It is the difference between having a crazy uncle and hiring a clown.

  • The term "carpetbagger" has some historical meaning in the south that doesn't apply in the north. Especially in NY once Bobby Kennedy had already pulled the same move in the same state. But if you want to talk about how the term has worked in the north, there is a more recent example than Hillary:  Alan Keyes. How'd that work out?

  • comment on a post 2009 Virginia Governor Cattle Call over 5 years ago

    What are you hearing about the race?

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