Lot's o'good snark and analysis. Fun to read. I'd just like to rain on everybody's parade with two caveats.
1) The MSM is going to hype the shit out of that Q poll, they'll mention as a footnote that it was taken before the debates, but if Lieberman has a margin even close to what it was in the last one, the over-riding meme will be "Ned Lamont just can't get any traction".
2) He thinks that voters think about things like Committee seniority and how awesome his parking place is outside of the Dirksen Senate office building (to be fair to Joe, it is a really good parking spot).
Yeah, but.... I keep seeing posts from people who say they hate the war, hate Bush, but they're planning to vote for Lieberman because of his seniority and experience. I can't ask them what good they think his "experience" is (as a backstabber? as a preening spotlight junkie ready to dance on Democrats' heads in return for some praise from Tweety or Hannity?), cause I'm not in CT and it's not a real conversation. But these people clamp on this like a dog with a bone. Other people, good progressives that I 'know' (as much as you can know someone on a blog) keep saying they don't care who wins because Lieberman has promised to caucus with the Democrats. I don't know where the hell they've been for the last five years.
Since I was something of a buzz-kill here tonight, I'll end on a positive note: I think once Lamont does get some momentum, it'll snowball. I suspect once people see Lieberman as vulnerable, they'll bail on him.
I don't know if it's true or not, but the latest scuttlebutt is that Dem bigwigs (I'll go out on a limb and guess their names are Dodd and Schumer) assured the Lamont campaign that they would take care of Joe, that Lamont should go easy. So Lamont's been pulling his punches while Lieberman spreads his "Negative Ned" schtick and campaigns for Republican votes.
I agree with everything Jake said, we've made great progress within the party, but we're still the rabble at the gate as far as they're concerned. My big disappointment in all this was my man Feingold. He's still my first choice for '08 (assuming Gore really doesn't want it) but I really would have liked to see him on the ground in CT.
From the decidely tepid support Lamont has gotten from sitting Dem Senators, Kerry being the only exception as far as I can see, I'm guessing Reid et al have assurances from JoMo that he'll at least vote for Reid as Leader, and keep his seniority, etc.
Also, I firmly believe that Lieberman is useless to the Republicans (and FoxNews) without a D after his name, and he won't get the attention and the ego-stroking that is obviously so important to him if he's not a 'maverick' within his own party. McCain and Hagel already play that part with the R's, there's no room for Whiny Joe criticizing the Republicans from within. He's not butch enough.
So he'll caucus with the Dems, and he'll continue to undermine them at every step, and (if he wins) he'll probably be back on Hannity the moment the polls close.
It just boggles my mind that people actually like that sanctimonious, war-mongering asshat. Of course, I think the bulk of his support comes from people who care more about hating 'teh Left' than about actual issues, but he still needs a good chunk of Democrats who are buying into some pretty backward political thinking ("he has seniority", "I've always voted for Lieberman", "I like him" this last is the worst) to put him over the top.
My own feeling is, Bill Clinton owes it to the party and the country to hit Lieberman loud and hard.
The main thing standing between McCain and the nomination is the Right Wing Base. As much as Tweety and Russert were enchanted by his temporary stand for principle, the true believer 'wingers just hate him that much more for it. Somebody crazy like Coburn or even Gingrich goes nuclear against McCain, he might not get the noimination. Add in his age and his health, I think he's got a 50/50 shot at best. If he gets the nomination, I'd sadly predict a 90% chance of getting the White House. The Beltway press loves him twice as much they hated Gore.
I'm someone who thinks it should be legal, even encouraged, to break the knee caps of people who abuse handicapped spaces with a large monkey wrench, whether it's Joe Lieberman, Angelina Jolie, or the Pope. And I would've said that even when I liked the pope.
"But how can Lamont get 75% democrats if those low-information, old-school democrats are still sticking with Lieberman; How can Lamont peel off 55% among independent if you guys continue to push for early withdrawl theme."
Well, his "supporters" could stop throwing around terms like "ultraliberal"....
Your concern is touching. Two months is a four lifetimes in politics. I'll start to worry about polls in a month. Until then, everybody just relax. Nobody ever thought this was going to be a cakewalk.
Why won't he? Joe's a good friend blah blah blah...
I get so sick of people (pols, pundits and powerbrokers) saying they disagree with "Joe" on the issues, but he's such a nice guy.... I want someone to ask them flat out: How many dead American soldiers will it take to make government more important than your friendship.
Digby has a report that Jeb Bush, Governor of Disneyworld, leaned hard on Iger. I don't like conspiracy theories, but this one stands up to Occam's razor. Richard Clarke works for them, is one of the lead "characters" in the movie, and told them it's a steaming pile of crap. The producers repeatedly rebuffed Clarke's offers to help with the script, with details....this didn't tip anybody off? They knew what they were doing. Somebody oughta ask around Sacramento too, see if the Governor of Disneyland stuck his meaty paws into this.