Palin in Nebraska tomorrow?

So Ambinder reports that Palin is scheduled to make a stop in Omaha tomorrow evening.  As we know, Obama is being pretty aggressive with courting the one electoral college vote available in the district for which Omaha is located.  If this story is correct (it sounds questionable to me because the lady is scheduled to be in Florida early Monday morning), we may have confirmation that the race is somewhat close in that one Congressional district.

It'll be interesting to see whether we call their bluff about Maine and send Biden to make a stop in the relevant Congressional district in Maine when he's up in New Hampshire Monday and Tuesday.

So I used up my two diary limit today on Palin.  What can I say, she was winking at me the other night....

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Palin's comments in CA?

The Sarah Palin comments that are drawing much of the media's attention today are comments regarding Bill Ayers.  However, she allegedly also said today at her California rally that
"[t]here's a special place in hell for women who don't support women."

I'm getting this quote from a right-wing blogger that attended the Palin rally.  Todd, can you confirm whether Palin made this comment as I don't see it in the review of the event?  The right-wing blogger noted that Palin asserted right after this comment that the media would twist it.

I haven't seen this comment reported in the news but it seems (and I could be missing the context) much closer to identity politics than anything that I've heard from either Obama, HRC or even Michelle Obama this year.  Pretty divisive statements on Palin's part unless she is quoting from Ann Richards or another feminist.

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I agree with kos?

Though I admittedly suffer from KDS (Kos Derangement Syndrome), the guy may be spot-on with his analysis of the chess game that the pubs, Schmidt, Bush, and McCain are likely playing with this bailout business.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9 /22/15256/2632/465/606678

Kos' read on what he believes McCain's crew is cooking up is summarized by Josh Marshall: "The Republican/McCain plan is to get the Democrats to bail out the GOP's Wall Street friends and then run against them for doing it."

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

Bush and Paulsen seemed far too willing to compromise on the plan only hours after saying they wouldn't compromise at all; it appears that we are going to get some decent oversight and housing protections put into the plan and that most dems, including Clinton given her softened rhetoric on the networks today and probably Obama as well, appear ready to vote for the negotiated package.  Meanwhile, the pubs and McCain will do a 180 and come out railing against the dems for supporting the plan, despite the fact that they were calling for bi-partisanship and a quick resolution just a week earlier, and depict us as the party that bailed out Wall Street regardless of the protections for Main Street that we required to be included in the plan before approving it.

These guys aren't above playing politics with anything, even the country's financial future.

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Palin/Biden Debate

Well, the NY Times has an interesting article about how the McCain campaign has pretty much negotiated the debate between Palin and Biden so that Palin in Mark Halperin's words, will be "shielded."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/us/pol itics/21debate.html?hp

Here's a key passage from the article:

"Commission members wanted a relaxed format that included time for unpredictable questioning and challenges between the vice-presidential candidates. Last week, it rejected a proposal from advisers to Ms. Palin and Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, for few if any unfettered exchanges. Advisers to Mr. Biden say they were comfortable with either format....McCain advisers said they were only somewhat concerned about Ms. Palin's debating skills compared with those of Mr. Biden, who has served six terms in the Senate, or about his chances of tripping her up. Instead, they say, they wanted Ms. Palin to have opportunities to present Mr. McCain's positions, rather than spending time talking about her own experience or playing defense."

It sounds as if they are playing the expectations game with Palin and building up Biden.  An interesting thing to also note about this article is that Obama and McCain wanted the foreign policy to go first.  If McCain cannot win this debate, he's looking at quite an uphill climb unless Palin somehow beats Biden in the debate (since this year is different, people may just be voting for or against a VP candidate) or some external campaign event comes up, which may possibly be even worse for McCain given that such an event could be related to the economy.

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The Demographic Formula

I've created a formula based on demographics taken from CNN's exit polls (probably the fairest of the three cable news networks) of our primary.  The formula is pretty simple: for all the remaining swing-state primaries (I exclude North Carolina and Montana from my swing state list based on recent polling and do not consider the most recent ARG Montana poll as ARG proved to be as effective as Zogby during the primaries), take the margin, if any, by which Clinton defeated Obama among white men and if that margin, if any actually exists, is less than 14, my formula has Obama winning that swing state.

The reasoning?  If Obama lost to Clinton by more than 14 among white men in a primary, the assumption is that McCain would defeat Obama by at least twice that margin in that state's general election primary among white men.  Such a margin among white men would probably be insurmountable in that state as Obama would need an incredible winning margin among women to overcome a deficit of more than 28 among white men.

So under this formula, Obama would win VA, WI, NH, and NM as he won white men in all four of these states.  He'd lose quite handily under this formula Ohio, Florida, and Indiana, though that's probably not a surprise.

The two most interesting states under this formula are Missouri and Pennsylvania, as Obama kept his margin of defeat among white men at exactly 14 in both states.  These two states would be total cliffhangers on election night if you follow the formula (yes, this formula predicts an Obama comeback in the Show-Me-State; there you go Xris).

The formula doesn't take into consideration the caucuses in IA, NV, CO, and MN though MN and IA will almost certainly go to Obama.  Michigan is obviously excluded.

Performance in a primary is typically not indicative of one's performance in the general election; this election is no typical election.

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Obama bounce in Ohio?

We may be wrong about Florida and Ohio.  According to the Quinnipiac poll, Obama's lead has increased in Ohio (+4 swing) since its last poll but has decreased in PA (-4 swing) and McCain's lead in Florida (-3 swing) has increased.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?Rele aseID=1212

Rasmussen seems to be the only pollster showing Florida to be a dead heat post-Palin while at the same time, he's the only pollster showing Ohio to be lean to solid McCain state.  However, all the pollsters support the notion that PA seems to have gotten extremely close.  I'm skeptical of the Ohio number but also skeptical about the Florida number as well.

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Anita Dunn responds

You know the story about lipstick on a pig in Jerome's post.  Here is Anita Dunn's response at http://thepage.com

"Enough is enough. The Mc Cain campaign's attack tonight is a pathetic attempt to play the gender card about the use of a common analogy - the same analogy that Senator McCain himself used about Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's health care plan just last year.    This phony lecture on gender sensitivity is the height of cynicism and lays bare the increasingly dishonorable campaign John McCain has chosen to run."

You know who Dunn sounds like?  Maggie Williams with her "enough" statement right after the Drudge claim about Obama in that outfit.  My guess is that McCain will not push anymore out of fear of a backlash.

Didn't we all start the day with Obama's speech on education?

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McCain and the Pacific Northwest

So First Read has reported that McCain's crew is considering targeting Oregon and my home state of Washington.  My response: bring it on.  I would love nothing more than for McCain to waste his money and time up here, so he can lose by three-five instead of seven-ten.  I hope the most recent surveyusa poll that shows McCain within five of Obama in the Evergreen State convinces him that it's worth it.  I was and remain heavily critical of Obama's fifty-state strategy but I am really hoping that McCain really overreaches in the same way that I though Obama has overreached as McCain basks in his post convention glow.  

What say you, WSB and kevin?  It looks like Gregoire is going to have a real horse-fight on her hands; according to surveyusa, Rossi has taken a one point lead mainly because he is tied among women with Gregoire now.

One final note: I see many of my fellow HRC supporters bringing up how Obama not selecting a certain person for VP paved the way for McCain to choose Palin.  I don't see how this nugget is relevant at this time for those who want to see Obama win this thing; the decision can be revisited after the election if things don't go his way but until then, all you are really doing is tossing gasoline on the fire.

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Debate prep

So who is going to play whom for the purposes of debate prep?  Here is what I have come up with:

Debbie Wasserman Schultz as Palin
John Murtha as McCain
James Imhofe as Biden
John Thune as Obama

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Palin questions for Obama

Some press excerpts have been released from Obama's interview with George S. tomorrow on "This Week." Unsurprisingly, Obama was asked about Palin power and he doesn't seem too shy, at least from the excerpts, with getting in some shots.

http://thepage.time.com/excerpts-from-ob amas-interview-with-this-week/

Obama compliments her as a "skilled politician" though I suspect that's not entirely a compliment.  He also quipped that McCain "chose somebody who may be even more aligned with George Bush - or Dick Cheney, or the politics we've seen over the last eight years - than John McCain himself is." Is that a hint that Obama may, or leave it to some surrogates to do it, bring up her stances on social issues and turn the culture wars against the pubs because it is generally accepted that McCain is, and this isn't saying much, less socially conservative than Bush?

Halperin also claims that Obama didn't concede that Palin was qualified (I think the best line to use about Palin's experience is "I'll leave it to the voters to determine whether she is qualified for the job as vice president and potentially president) and that Obama noted that the country doesn't know very much about her.

If I were Obama, I'd proclaim that either myself or Biden will hold at least one media availability a day and even better, go on a morning show everyday until Sarah Palin gives a national news network.  I'd promote the idea that she is ducking the press, a completely fair hit on her that has no relation to her gender.

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Diaries

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